16 replies to this topic

[PatrickDougherty]

BSL: http://baltimorespor...fe.com/?p=17006

 

Where do you think everyone finishes?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Baltimore
Toronto
New York
Boston
Tampa

[BSLChrisStoner]

For those who have not listened yet, we had extended AL East thoughts from Bob Nightengale (USA Today) and Jason Collette (FanGraphs) over the weekend. Check out a replay.

[PatrickDougherty]

Baltimore
Toronto
New York
Boston
Tampa

Reasons why?

[Matt_P]

Red Sox

Orioles

Blue Jays

Yankees

Rays

 

Boegarts is a stud. Pedroia will break out of his slump eventually. They'll get an outfielder and a starter at the trade deadline and possibly promote one of their good pitching prospects from the minors and go on a huge winning streak.

 

Blue Jays will collapse once Bautista has his annual injury. Yankees will collapse just as soon as Solarte goes cold. They don't have hitting. They don't have starting pitching. They're overachieving again. Rays are done.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Every team has issues.

 

Toronto's offense is legitimate. They need more pitching. Jeremy had to be excited about Stroman's start the other day (he liked Stroman a lot in that draft). Top prospect Aaron Sanchez remains at AA, and is possible trade bait. Morrow has been on the DL.  I do think JS winds up in the East, but think Toronto is the favorite to obtain.

 

Boston rebounded from their 10 game losing streak, with 7 wins...  They get on-base at a high clip, but are in the lower 1/3 in slugging. Buchholz has been a mess. Drew forces Bogaerts to 3rd. We had on Nick Cafardo from the Boston Globe, he thinks 3rd is Bogaerts ultimate position long-term. In the immediate that is improvement as well, as Middlebrooks had again been struggling.  Jackie Bradley Jr  and Sizemore have struggled as well.

 

In addition to this work with FanGraphs, Collette covers the Rays for The Process Report (ESPN Sweetspot). I've talked with him and others, and posed the question... "Can the Rays get back into the playoff race with a returning Hellickson to go with Price, Archer, and Cobb?" Collette does not believe they can. In fact he thinks the Rays need to get ahead of the market and be looking to move Price now.  After a solid April, Jennings struggled in May.  Myers is now on the DL, and he has been very mediocre all year anyway. Losing Moore, and  being without Hellickson all year has been huge.

 

New York lost Nova.  Sabathia has been on the DL, as has Pineda. I thought being on the DL for Pineda might not be horrible for them, because after all the time he has missed the last 2 years; you wondered how many innings he had available to give NY this year. That said, his most recent issues are not a good sign for the Yankees. Tex hurt again. The infield is ancient. McCann not hitting. Ellsbury has been so/so. Tanaka great. Kuroda allowing a lot of homers. They should stay in the race, but they aren't going to run and hide. Let's see how all the age on that roster does as the season progresses and the weather gets hotter.

 

The profile of the O's really hasn't changed. A team reliant on slugging that struggles to get on-base. As Cruz regresses, more can be expected from Davis, Jones, and Machado. The rotation is good enough to keep the O's in most games, but not good enough overall. Going into the year, we knew that Tillman and Jimenez were miscast as potential aces. The O's do need them to be consistently good 2/3 type starters though. Gausman remains a huge wildcard for this team. Have to see what happens with Wieters. Is he going to be able to return? If so, will he be able to catch? If he's a DH only, that impacts the roster. If he's done for the year, and requires surgery; that obviously impacts the roster. IMO, the O's have 6 weeks to improve their play and show the FO that it's worth looking at trading internal depth to augment the roster. This team really could go either way. As Rob has pointed out, they have been basically .500 for a calendar year. Let's see if the group that exists can raise their play these next 6 weeks.

[SportsGuy]

Toronto has the best chance at this point IMO.

 

They have the offense and their pitching is good...They have the MiL talent to go out and get someone as well.

 

The issue for Toronto will be can guys stay healthy(namely JBat) and when some of their guys regress(which will happen, see Buehrle), how much of a dropoff will they see.

 

Now, Toronto has also had to deal with their own injuries and have overcome them.

 

We will see but I like their chances right now...This is largely the same team from last year and many people felt they would win the division.

[glenn__davis]

Toronto has a bad clubhouse, IMO.  Lots of me-first players on that team, which works fine when things are going well, but also easy for the thing to come apart when they hit a rut.  Buerhle's not going to pitch this way all year.  He'll start getting hit.

 

I say most of this because I don't like them.

 

If I look on paper right now, I actually think the Orioles are the best team, but obviously they need some guys to start picking it up.  Machado, Davis, Jones, Hardy - the stars need to start playing like it.  But we've been saying that for a month now, and no one has.  A lot will depend on Wieters and how ready Gausman is to contribute.

 

Tampa's in trouble I think.

 

If I had to guess right now...

 

Baltimore

Boston

New York

Toronto

Tampa

[NewMarketSean]

Boston

Toronto

New York

Baltimore 

Tampa Bay

[SBTarheel]

This is such a tough division, you can make a case for anything 1-5, and it wouldn't shock me. Even Tampa isn't out of it with the rotation, they could rattle off 15 out of 20 or whatever.

 

That being said,

 

Toronto

Baltimore

Boston

Tampa Bay

New York

[bnickle]

I think Tor will likely make the playoffs. Whether it's divisional winner or not.

Hard to believe Bos won't make a push too.

I think TB is not going to be in the mix this year. Still will play you tough, but a 77-83 win team.

I have no idea what to expect from NY or Bal. Could see either making a legit push or fading to sub .500. Yeah they are old, and have some injuries, but they find ways. Girardi is a good manager. Jerk but gets a lot out of his team's players



Put me on the spot I'll go:
Toronto
Bos
Baltimore
NY
TB.

[GabeFerguson]

I still think Baltimore has the most talented roster in the division. If they can all play up to their expectations they should win it. 

 

Baltimore

Boston

Toronto

NY 

TB

[SBTarheel]

I think Tor will likely make the playoffs. Whether it's divisional winner or not.

Hard to believe Bos won't make a push too.

I think TB is not going to be in the mix this year. Still will play you tough, but a 77-83 win team.

I have no idea what to expect from NY or Bal. Could see either making a legit push or fading to sub .500. Yeah they are old, and have some injuries, but they find ways. Girardi is a good manager. Jerk but gets a lot out of his team's players



Put me on the spot I'll go:
Toronto
Bos
Baltimore
NY
TB.

Normally I'm in agreement, and would assume that they'd make a move or two to assure themselves that Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson aren't playing major roles in a pennant race, but what do they have to trade in the minors? Pretty barren down there. 

 

Granted they have the best starter in the division in Tanaka, and perhaps the best reliever in Betances (look at his numbers, absolutely sick), but offensively a lot of their guys look 100% done. 

[dude]

Toronto has the best chance at this point IMO.

 

They have the offense and their pitching is good...They have the MiL talent to go out and get someone as well.

 

The issue for Toronto will be can guys stay healthy(namely JBat) and when some of their guys regress(which will happen, see Buehrle), how much of a dropoff will they see.

 

Now, Toronto has also had to deal with their own injuries and have overcome them.

 

We will see but I like their chances right now...This is largely the same team from last year and many people felt they would win the division.

 

I think the last sentence is the significant point I'd make too.

 

People like to pooh-pooh the 'experts' last year and when the Jays struggled and pretend like it's not a good team.  It was a good team (and their FO did some things right) that just didn't play well for whatever reasons.

 

Now they are largely playing at the level that many expected last year.....but others want to say they can't hang.

 

Maybe, maybe not....we'll see......but that team has a fairt amount of talent and is playing well.

 

TB has sort of traded places with the Jays in terms of expectations and performance from last year.  They need some offensive production.....maybe trade for a guy like Matt Adams to try and get a jolt.

 

I can see Boston playing at a more consistent, higher level.

 

Baltimore needs to get some higher end consistency across the roster.

 

Hard to figure how the Yankees are holding things together given the things going wrong there.....they seem to get it done regardless......but if 3 teams in the East start getting it done, I can't see them surviving.

 

I'd be in the camp of...

TOR

BOS

BAL

NYY

TB

 

....if I am forced to guess today.

 

So manty things can happen right now, good and bad for each team....there are a lot of possibilities....obviously is comes down to collective play.....but moves (trades/promotion) could make a big difference in this division.

[PatrickDougherty]

I hear you guys on the Jays, but also remember that those players stunk together in Miami. Adding them Encarnacion and Bautista definitely helped though.

[DuffMan]

Final series of the year O's go to Toronto trailing the BJ's by 2 games (just like 1989) only this time they get the sweep and clinch the AL East on the 162nd game of the year!

[fishteacher]

A lot will be told next weekend when Toronto comes into the Yard.  IT could be a make or break series IMO.  If the Jays sweep us or take 3 of 4 and we lose 2 or 3 in the standings, it could be hard to see us getting on top of them long term.  We do play them a bunch between now and the end of the season, so I'd hold out some hope for it nonetheless. 

 

Toronto:  Great offense, if healthy.  I don't think they can stay healthy.  If Joey Bats goes down or Aronocarnation   I don't think Lawrie, Reyes, or Lind along with Melky can carry them...just too many holes in the lineup if that happens (even if it's only 2 guys).  Their pitching still doesn't impress me ALL THAT MUCH long term; a lot of inexperience.

 

New York:  I never count them out, but their rotation is a mess this side of Tanaka and that one other guy, and CC is skinny and sucks as a skinny guy...He's like reverse-Bane.  He got skinny and now sucks ass.  I think they're too old and have too many injury concerns to really be in it, but then again, as I said, I never count those a-holes out.

 

Boston:  Get on base a ton, will stay in close games.  Bucholz has sucked.  Lester has been good.  We seem to struggle against their marginal pitchers like Damian Sandow...er I mean John Lackey, and with Big Slappy and Molerat, they always seem to find a way. They will make it a dogfight.

 

Tampa:  Hop off their bus.  Their offense is terrible this side of Longoria.  I think they'll be big sellers, and I can't believe we wouldn't/shouldn't be shopping for DAvid Price...I'd give up Bundy, screw it.  Make that happen.  No way they get into it unless Ben Zobrist clones himself and we play against a team full of him, since he always seems to kill us.

 

O's:  I don't want to be a homer, but what the hell.  We need to make an offensive addition and add a pitcher.  I'd love to see us go get DAvid Price from Tampa and give up Bundy (just scares me ot put too much stock in an unproven guy who already has had elbow surgery at the age of 19 or 20).  If our starting pitching can be a bit more consistent, and not consistently suck, and Davis removes la cabeza from la ass, Manny starts to get on track a bit, and Hardy can find his power stroke a bit, I think we're going to contend and win this thing.  With that being said...

 

O's

Boston

Toronto

New York

Tampa

 

SOmehow I think we pull it off...maybe like Duffman says, in the final weekend of the season.   it'd be sweet justice for the Why Not year.