14 replies to this topic

[Oriole85]

Maryland in? (ESPN)

 

I was surprised that Lunardi had them in and not even in his "last four byes" or "last four in." So they are solidly in. I'm guessing it must be Lunardi expects them to improve once Allen comes back.  

[Brobey]

Has to be based on the rest of our "projected" season and not on the results thus far, because I can't see how they'd be "in" or even "last 4/next 4 out" based on the games played so far this year...

[Oriole85]

Has to be based on the rest of our "projected" season and not on the results thus far, because I can't see how they'd be "in" or even "last 4/next 4 out" based on the games played so far this year...

I only went looking for Maryland & Colorado, didn't really focus much on the rest of the bracket or how they've done in previous weeks. You could be right.

[glenn__davis]

MD is in only because they are the "conference leader" at the time at 1-0.  MD and VT are both 1-0, I guess he likes us more than VT.

[Oriole85]

MD is in only because they are the "conference leader" at the time at 1-0.  MD and VT are both 1-0, I guess he likes us more than VT.

That would be dumb, most conferences haven't even had a conference game.

[glenn__davis]

That would be dumb, most conferences haven't even had a conference game.

 

Well I think any Bracketology at this point is dumb.  Not to insult Lunardi who I'm sure is just doing what his employer tells him to do.  But he explained this as his reasoning on a twitter post, I just happened to read it on Testudo Times.

 

Exact tweet was "Procedural inclusion b/c current ACC "lead."

[Pedro Cerrano]

Well I think any Bracketology at this point is dumb.  Not to insult Lunardi who I'm sure is just doing what his employer tells him to do.  But he explained this as his reasoning on a twitter post, I just happened to read it on Testudo Times.

 

Exact tweet was "Procedural inclusion b/c current ACC "lead."

 

Then why doesn't he have us listed on the "Last 4 in"?

 

Or are those spots only reserved for at-large bids?

[Oriole85]

Well I think any Bracketology at this point is dumb.  Not to insult Lunardi who I'm sure is just doing what his employer tells him to do.  But he explained this as his reasoning on a twitter post, I just happened to read it on Testudo Times.

 

Exact tweet was "Procedural inclusion b/c current ACC "lead."

It's not as stupid as doing bowl projections pre-conference play, but people like to keep track of this kind of stuff. There's been some major games played so far. I don't mind it, just taking it FWIW.

[Oriole85]

MD is in only because they are the "conference leader" at the time at 1-0.  MD and VT are both 1-0, I guess he likes us more than VT.

Yep and they are still in it. I just listened to his video explanation where he admitted it. Sorry if I doubted you before. 

 

Lunardi just said they need atleast 11 wins and he doesn't think they have the talent to do it.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Note that MD is listed in all CAPS. I think that means teams that get an auto-bid as the conference champ. Obviously, the Terps are not going to be the ACC Champion when all is said and done. It's only how things stand today, because UM is one of only 2 teams with a 1-0 conference record (and he thinks UM would get in over VT right now)

 

In other words, this has little to do with what we will see in March, and is simply meant to get page views and drive discussion.

[Oriole85]

Note that MD is listed in all CAPS. I think that means teams that get an auto-bid as the conference champ. Obviously, the Terps are not going to be the ACC Champion when all is said and done. It's only how things stand today, because UM is one of only 2 teams with a 1-0 conference record (and he thinks UM would get in over VT right now)

 

In other words, this has little to do with what we will see in March, and is simply meant to get page views and drive discussion.

Yeah that's exactly what Lundardi does as I said above, he puts the team that is leading the conference as the automatic bid. That's why they aren't one of the last four byes or last four in. Lunardi explained MD's inclusion in the video and said they wouldn't be in, in the near future.

 

And yeah, it's meant for discussion/page views (is that a bad thing?) because people actually care about this stuff right now. They want to know where their team is, who they "should" be playing, the location, and the road to get there, and comparing with other teams (the whole "we're better than [insert team name], how are they are a higher seed." When you're not in it, it's not as fun to look at. Same thing with bowl projections.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Yeah that's exactly what Lundardi does as I said above, he puts the team that is leading the conference as the automatic bid. That's why they aren't one of the last four byes or last four in. Lunardi explained MD's inclusion in the video and said they wouldn't be in, in the near future.

 

And yeah, it's meant for discussion/page views (is that a bad thing?) because people actually care about this stuff right now. They want to know where their team is, who they "should" be playing, the location, and the road to get there, and comparing with other teams (the whole "we're better than [insert team name], how are they are a higher seed." When you're not in it, it's not as fun to look at. Same thing with bowl projections.

 

I don't think it's a bad thing to have the discussion. I do think for now it would make more sense to maybe limit it to a list of 36 teams that he thinks would get at-large bids right now instead of doing a bracket, since slotting automatic bids before many teams have played a single conference game is way too subject to anomalies (See: MD, ACC Champs). Or, maybe he could just project who he thinks the conference winner will eventually be (although I don't know if that part is Lunardi's specialty or not).

[Oriole85]

I don't think it's a bad thing to have the discussion. I do think for now it would make more sense to maybe limit it to a list of 36 teams that he thinks would get at-large bids right now instead of doing a bracket, since slotting automatic bids before many teams have played a single conference game is way too subject to anomalies (See: MD, ACC Champs). Or, maybe he could just project who he thinks the conference winner will eventually be (although I don't know if that part is Lunardi's specialty or not).

I like the 68, that's what makes it fun. But I do think for the few weeks or even more, the automatic team in a conference shouldn't necessary be the team that is 1-0 or 3-1 and winning the conference. Like you mentioned, I would do in these cases, the team he thinks that will the conference.

[Oriole85]

Latest Bracket Math update (ESPN Insider)

 

OUT (17, in S-curve order): 69. Brigham Young, 70. Texas, 71. Illinois, 72. Arizona State, 73. Indiana, 74. Saint Mary's, 75. Southern Mississippi, 76. Boise State, 77. Clemson, 78. North Dakota State, 79. Indiana State, 80. New Mexico State, 81. Toledo, 82. Maryland, 83. Marquette, 84. West Virginia, 85. Louisiana State

[Oriole85]

Since we talked about bubble ramifications with a win tonight during the FSU game, Lunardi (Insider) has Maryland as the 7th team listed in the  "also considered" category after his "next four out." So I think they'll need to beat UVA then beat Duke to just be in the "real conversation." It's unlikely they'll make the Tourney without an automatic bid. With 7 games remaining, I'd say they'd have to go 5-2. A good run in the ACC Tourney with going 4-3 could possibly do it. And yes, who you beat and who you lose to is important but I'm not going to get into all those scenarios. The bubble is evolving so this is subject to change. They have three extremely challenging games starting with tonight then Duke followed by Syracuse at home, you might even want to put the UVA game into this mix.