No replies to this topic

[DJ MC]

http://www.freakonom... ... eremy-lin/

In the NBA, though, it is a very different story. Veteran NBA players – relative to what we see in the NFL – are far more consistent over time. And although we cannot predict future NBA performance on draft day perfectly, we certainly know something. Part of that “something” that we know is that NBA teams make mistakes by focusing on the “wrong” factors. To illustrate, let’s talk about Jeremy Lin.

...

Wins in basketball are primarily about shooting efficiency (i.e. the ability to put the ball in the basket), and your ability to gain and keep possession of the ball (i.e. rebounds, steals, and turnovers). The importance of these factors drives the calculation of Wins Produced.

...

Lin’s above average Win Score was driven by his ability to excel at shooting efficiency from two-point range, his ability to get rebounds, and his ability to get steals. When we look at which college factors predict an NBA player’s productivity, we find that it is these very same factors that matter: shooting efficiency from two-point range, rebounds, and steals.

Now what factors don’t matter? We found that a player’s height, age, and other box score numbers are not associated with more NBA production later on. In addition, appearing in the Final Four – a factor that clearly impacts draft position – doesn’t suggest higher production in the future. In sum, what Lin didn’t have in 2010 wasn’t related to his future NBA prospects.

...

All this tells us is that although it’s much easier to evaluate talent in the NBA than the NFL, the results for teams in both leagues appear to be the same. And until decision makers in the NBA can do a better job of focusing on what matters – and ignoring what doesn’t – decisions in the NBA are likely to continue to look very much like what we see in the NFL.