21 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ravens.com: Crazy to think Rice at risk
http://www.baltimore...a5-09439abd67c8

[NewMarketSean]

Maybe not this year, but I can see this being a possibility next year. Especially if Pierce takes the next step forward.

[Mackus]

It's an obvious impossibility this year even if the concept of cutting Rice had any merit from a performance standpoint. Cutting him now would avoid having to pay him a $7M option bonus and $1M in salary, but they would still have to take a hit of $12M in dead money against the cap, well over his $5.75M cap hit if he's retained.

I think it's a near impossibility next year as well. His cap number for 2014 will be $8.75M. If they cut him, they'll have to take on $14.25M in dead money.

[bnickle]

Rice is not going to be at risk for being cut for at least 2 more years. He's still arguably the most valuable player on the team outside of Joe. Even when cutting him becomes a real option, I see him being a guy who would probably be willing to take a pay cut to stay in Baltimore. I really think this is a guy who will have value into his early 30's. He'll always be a great 3rd down RB even as some of his other skills erode.

[You Play to Win the Game]

He won't be cut anytime soon, but he is overpaid.

He needs to stop putting the damn ball on the ground in the playoffs. He's one of the biggest beneficiaries of that goal line stand in New Orleans, because if the Ravens end up losing the game, he's the goat, IMHO.

[Mackus]

Even, when cutting him becomes a real option, I see him being a guy who would probably be willing to take a pay cut to stay in Baltimore.

Either that or I think he'll still have pretty solid trade value. If we need to clear some money and Pierce needs a bigger role, I think they could get a return for Ray that is pretty good. At least a 2nd or 3rd rounder, unless he suffers some sort of major injury. The Ravens would have to eat the dead money if he's traded just like if they cut him, so they wouldn't save much cap space, but they would have an asset to trade, as Ray Rice only counting his salary ($4M in 2014, $3M in '15-'16) against a new team's cap seems awfully attractive. I need to double-check the cap rules on trading a guy, but I think they are nearly the same as releasing someone from the perspective of the team trading the player.

[Mackus]

He needs to stop putting the damn ball on the ground in the playoffs.

I think that's a fluke more than anything else. He is absolutely not a fumbler in the regular season, and I can't imagine what he'd be doing differently or what opponents would be doing differently in the playoffs that would cause him to be putting the ball on the ground so often.

I would be more surprised if he ever has another postseason fumble than if he never does going forward. I certainly haven't lost any amount of trust in him to be secure with the ball.

[SportsGuy]

Never should have given him the contract we did.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I think that's a fluke more than anything else. He is absolutely not a fumbler in the regular season, and I can't imagine what he'd be doing differently or what opponents would be doing differently in the playoffs that would cause him to be putting the ball on the ground so often.

I would be more surprised if he ever has another postseason fumble than if he never does going forward. I certainly haven't lost any amount of trust in him to be secure with the ball.

He has 6 fumbles in the last 4 post-seasons (10 games), including 3 this year... that's despite having just 6 in his regular season career (77 games). So yeah, it's obviously way out of proportion. I think he's probably trying too hard. Either way, he needs to not fumble in the playoffs. It's inexcusable and damn near cost us the Super Bowl.

Never should have given him the contract we did.

Agreed, and I argued as much for the year leading up to the extension.

[bnickle]

I think that's a fluke more than anything else. He is absolutely not a fumbler in the regular season, and I can't imagine what he'd be doing differently or what opponents would be doing differently in the playoffs that would cause him to be putting the ball on the ground so often.

I would be more surprised if he ever has another postseason fumble than if he never does going forward. I certainly haven't lost any amount of trust in him to be secure with the ball.

DOn't get me wrong, some guys have problems with fumbles and it's because of technique or form. That said, fumbles in general can be really flukey. You happen to put a helmet on the ball or an hand in on the ball at the right angle at the right moment anybody will fumble. It's impossible to run and make moves and not have the ball exposed and vulnerable at times.

[Mackus]

If they hadn't given him the contract, his cap number would've been about $2.7M higher. We may not have been able to bring in Jacoby Jones or Corey Graham or keep McKinnie on the roster, and without them we likely don't win the Super Bowl this year.

It's always a shell game with the cap, so maybe they could've found that cap space elsewhere even if Ray was playing under the franchise tag. But if they had, Ray would almost certainly not be on the team after this season, as they likely wouldn't have room to give big deals to both him and Joe in the same offseason.

[Mike B]

If they hadn't given him the contract, his cap number would've been about $2.7M higher. We may not have been able to bring in Jacoby Jones or Corey Graham or keep McKinnie on the roster, and without them we likely don't win the Super Bowl this year.

It's always a shell game with the cap, so maybe they could've found that cap space elsewhere even if Ray was playing under the franchise tag. But if they had, Ray would almost certainly not be on the team after this season, as they likely wouldn't have room to give big deals to both him and Joe in the same offseason.

Great point. It amazes me how quickly people can sour on players. In addition to your point, one more to consider, the Ravens do not win the Super Bowl this year without Ray Rice.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Great point. It amazes me how quickly people can sour on players. In addition to your point, one more to consider, the Ravens do not win the Super Bowl this year without Ray Rice.

No one here is souring on Rice, but he's over paid. That's what I think we're alluding to. Everyone here certainly wanted him retained, but it was a tad bit pricey for my liking.

[You Play to Win the Game]

DOn't get me wrong, some guys have problems with fumbles and it's because of technique or form. That said, fumbles in general can be really flukey. You happen to put a helmet on the ball or an hand in on the ball at the right angle at the right moment anybody will fumble. It's impossible to run and make moves and not have the ball exposed and vulnerable at times.

Only one of Rice's fumbles in the playoffs fit that bill, IIRC. I'd have to go look at them all again, but most of them I'm fairly certain were just getting hit, and not all that hard, and putting the ball on the floor.

[BSLMattJergensen]

Rice isn't overpaid. He's paid according to what the market bears for a player of his skill-set and services.

http://prod.www.rave... ... f7d42f3bab

Rice's cap number isn't bad for 2013 - $5.75, the issue is 2014 where it flies up to $8.75 and then drops the final two season on the deal to $7.75 against the cap.

I understand that Rice's playoff fumbling is a concern but he's an elite back (can't believe I'm using that word) and is a special talent. Flacco's and the offense's emergence into a multi-dimension machine has also diminished Rice's worth to a degree. If Flacco continues to take strides forward then it might make sense to attempt to move Rice but not yet.

[SportsGuy]

If they hadn't given him the contract, his cap number would've been about $2.7M higher. We may not have been able to bring in Jacoby Jones or Corey Graham or keep McKinnie on the roster, and without them we likely don't win the Super Bowl this year.

It's always a shell game with the cap, so maybe they could've found that cap space elsewhere even if Ray was playing under the franchise tag. But if they had, Ray would almost certainly not be on the team after this season, as they likely wouldn't have room to give big deals to both him and Joe in the same offseason.

You are also assuming something else wouldn't have happened with other players.

[Mackus]

You are also assuming something else wouldn't have happened with other players.

I said that maybe they could've done something else to get all those guys here and stay under the cap. It's certainly not a leap to say the construction of the roster would've been different had they not lowered Ray's cap number by the third that they did. That extra cap space certainly allowed them to bring in pieces that helped without having to lose anyone else off the roster to do so.

The bottom line is that having Rice in the fold long term is likely a good thing, and so was lowering the 2012 cap hit of him being here (and keeping the 2013 cap hit relatively low). Going forward, if you only consider him to be a top 6-10 type running back, then he's probably overpaid. But he's not overpaid if you consider him a top 5 guy, which I do. The question of whether it's smart for the Ravens to have so much cap space tied up into their running back, even an elite one, is certainly fair. Though I'd say given where they were last year that it was smart to go forward with the deal. It's hard to look at the Ray's season or what the team did and have too much regret over the contract.

[SportsGuy]

I said that maybe they could've done something else to get all those guys here and stay under the cap. It's certainly not a leap to say the construction of the roster would've been different had they not lowered Ray's cap number by the third that they did. That extra cap space certainly allowed them to bring in pieces that helped without having to lose anyone else off the roster to do so.

The bottom line is that having Rice in the fold long term is likely a good thing, and so was lowering the 2012 cap hit of him being here (and keeping the 2013 cap hit relatively low). Going forward, if you only consider him to be a top 6-10 type running back, then he's probably overpaid. But he's not overpaid if you consider him a top 5 guy, which I do. The question of whether it's smart for the Ravens to have so much cap space tied up into their running back, even an elite one, is certainly fair. Though I'd say given where they were last year that it was smart to go forward with the deal. It's hard to look at the Ray's season or what the team did and have too much regret over the contract.

He won't be top 5 for much longer...that is and always was my issue with the extension.

[Mackus]

He won't be top 5 for much longer...that is and always was my issue with the extension.

He already worked out great for year 1. Are you worried about him this year? Next? He becomes cuttable/tradable from a financial standpoint after 2014.

I agree that RBs are always a risk and do decline early, but I think if we end up having any regret over Ray's deal it will be more from that perspective that we have someone nearly as good in Pierce for cheap, not that we necessarily think Ray's deal on his own is a bad one. It may not be ideal from a cap and playing time perspective, but overall I think it will be hard to view the deal as a bad one on it's own merits.

[SportsGuy]

He already worked out great for year 1. Are you worried about him this year? Next? He becomes cuttable/tradable from a financial standpoint after 2014.

I agree that RBs are always a risk and do decline early, but I think if we end up having any regret over Ray's deal it will be more from that perspective that we have someone nearly as good in Pierce for cheap, not that we necessarily think Ray's deal on his own is a bad one. It may not be ideal from a cap and playing time perspective, but overall I think it will be hard to view the deal as a bad one on it's own merits.

But its the very idea that you can pick up a more effective back in the third round and pay him nothing that is the whole issue with the deal itself.

I am fine with him for another 2 seasons though.