22 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Currently the 2013-14 Terps look like*
Guards: Faust (Jr) Howard (Sr), Allen (Soph), Peters (Freshman)
Wings: Wells (Jr), Layman (Soph)
Bigs: Len (Jr), Cleare (Soph), Mitchell (Soph), Smotrycz (Jr), Dodd (Freshman)

*With 2 remaining scholarships available.

Some thoughts / questions:

1) Every Mock NBA Draft I've seen over the past 3 months has Len as a Lottery pick. I think if he comes out, his size, athleticism, and skill set would have him taken that high. Execs will gamble on his projections. He is not ready for the league though. What % chance do you give Len on returning?

2) There have been some reports of Smotrycz being the most complete player in practice. Going to be interesting to see how he is used next year.

3) Based on what we've seen this year, going to be a lot of pressure on Peters to be able to effectively run the offense.

[Oriole85]

Maybe 20% for Len returning, assuming he's a lottery pick. I think that's too much to pass up. The chance to make that much instant $$$. If MD were going to be a Final Four caliber team, it be easier to convince him to stay. Playing devil's advocate, why should he comeback?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Maybe 20% for Len returning, assuming he's a lottery pick. I think that's too much to pass up. The chance to make that much instant $$$. If MD were going to be a Final Four caliber team, it be easier to convince him to stay. Playing devil's advocate, why should he comeback?

Another year to develop his game. To get playing time, vs. either being relegated to the bench, or the D-League. Potentially being drafted slightly higher, making up any dollar loss for not being paid next year.

I saw you say in the other thread they likely wouldn't be a Final 4 team. I guess that is fair to say, when they are currently outside of the Top 25, and just 3-5 in league play. That said, that roster has a lot of talent. Peters is a well regarded recruit. Asking him (or any Freshman) to come in and effectively run the offense from Day 1 is a lot. We agree on that. However, it might not be a lot to ask him to be better than anything the Terps have at PG currently.

If he improves the PG production, and the rest of the roster improves (as players typically due as the mature, and stay in the same system)... I would not place any ceiling on what that team could achieve.

[SportsGuy]

The reason for Len to come back is to improve his game at this level, which likely makes him a more effective NBA player...but he isn't coming back.

[Oriole85]

Another year to develop his game. To get playing time, vs. either being relegated to the bench, or the D-League. Potentially being drafted slightly higher, making up any dollar loss for not being paid next year.

I saw you say in the other thread they likely wouldn't be a Final 4 team. I guess that is fair to say, when they are currently outside of the Top 25, and just 3-5 in league play. That said, that roster has a lot of talent. Peters is a well regarded recruit. Asking him (or any Freshman) to come in and effectively run the offense from Day 1 is a lot. We agree on that. However, it might not be a lot to ask him to be better than anything the Terps have at PG currently.

If he improves the PG production, and the rest of the roster improves (as players typically due as the mature, and stay in the same system)... I would not place any ceiling on what that team could achieve.

Fair point on the developing factor, by the other token I saw the suggestion, he'd be better served with NBA coaching. I think he'd need a lot more incentive than getting a slightly higher draft position to comeback. Any lottery pick should go to the NBA IMO short of coming back to being on a potential championship-caliber team. I think there's much more to lose than gain in these situations.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Fair point on the developing factor, by the other token I saw the suggestion, he'd be better served with NBA coaching. I think he'd need a lot more incentive than getting a slightly higher draft position to comeback. Any lottery pick should go to the NBA IMO short of coming back to being on a potential championship-caliber team. I think there's much more to lose than gain in these situations.

Yeah, I think that is all true. I've been saying there is no chance at Len coming back. I can see increasing those odds slightly, but basically I agree with those that believe he is gone.

[glenn__davis]

I think 20% sounds about right for Len, unless his stock begins to drop.

I would almost always advise a lottery pick to go, but - and I absolutely say this with no Terp-colored glasses on - I really think he needs to stay another year. I understand all of the reasons for going, but I just don't see a guy who is mentally ready to compete at the NBA level.

If Len does stay, I believe next year's team will compete for the ACC title. If he leaves, I'd still think they were a tourney team, though it would depend on how much Mitchell and Cleare develop in the offseason and what, if anything, Dodd is able to contribute.

[Oriole85]

Yeah, I think that is all true. I've been saying there is no chance at Len coming back. I can see increasing those odds slightly, but basically I agree with those that believe he is gone.

I've gone back-and-forth on is it more likely for him to comeback if MD were to be a tourney team this year and the outlook looked better for next year? I'm not sure how relevant it is though.

[Oriole85]

I think 20% sounds about right for Len, unless his stock begins to drop.

I would almost always advise a lottery pick to go, but - and I absolutely say this with no Terp-colored glasses on - I really think he needs to stay another year. I understand all of the reasons for going, but I just don't see a guy who is mentally ready to compete at the NBA level.

If Len does stay, I believe next year's team will compete for the ACC title. If he leaves, I'd still think they were a tourney team, though it would depend on how much Mitchell and Cleare develop in the offseason and what, if anything, Dodd is able to contribute.

I'd agree with you if there was no where to go but up. As I said previously, you're asking him most likely to comeback for a little.

[BSLMikeLowe]

The fact that Peters' season ended in December due to shoulder surgery does not leave me optimistic about him having an immediate impact next season.

[glenn__davis]

I'd agree with you if there was no where to go but up. As I said previously, you're asking him most likely to comeback for a little.

Yeah, I don't disagree. No question I think if he comes back next year his stock is more likely to drop. And for 99% of players, I think you need to leave when you believe your stock has peaked, which is probably the case with Len.

But, I think there's something to thinking long-term and thinking about what is best for your NBA career in the long run. I'm not convinced that coming out now is best for Len. Just tough for me to see him doing anything at that level right now, despite his skill set.

[glenn__davis]

The fact that Peters' season ended in December due to shoulder surgery does not leave me optimistic about him having an immediate impact next season.

I'm not all that worried about the injury, but my expectations of Peters next year are pretty limited anyway. Outside of the truly elite talent, there aren't many true freshmen who can come in and run point efficiently. I think Smotrycz will have a bigger impact, as he provides experience as well as another 3-point threat which we sorely need.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm not all that worried about the injury, but my expectations of Peters next year are pretty limited anyway. Outside of the truly elite talent, there aren't many true freshmen who can come in and run point efficiently. I think Smotrycz will have a bigger impact, as he provides experience as well as another 3-point threat which we sorely need.

Shame they won't be able to pair Smotrycz's outside shooting with Aronhalt.

I could see Peter's shoulder injury impacting his ability to work on his game a lot this Summer.
The key with Peter's is going to be his ability to run the offense. Everything I've seen on him describes him as a combo guard.

Will he be able to run the offense better than Allen, Faust, Howard, etc?

Like you said, that is a lot to ask of any Freshman.

[Oriole85]

Yeah, I don't disagree. No question I think if he comes back next year his stock is more likely to drop. And for 99% of players, I think you need to leave when you believe your stock has peaked, which is probably the case with Len.

But, I think there's something to thinking long-term and thinking about what is best for your NBA career in the long run. I'm not convinced that coming out now is best for Len. Just tough for me to see him doing anything at that level right now, despite his skill set.

Agree on what you said in terms of long-term, but there's not always a long-term. This might be his only chance to get real $$$ -- between a freak injury, ineffective play, etc.

[mdak06]

(1) I think a 20% chance of Len coming back is high; I'd say 10% or less. I think that unless he decides he wants to specifically stay in college (for the "college experience" and/or classes, not for basketball reasons) for the next year, he goes to the NBA. He can develop in basketball in the NBA (or D-league) and that will be his full-time job there, vs. that plus all of the college classes at UMD. He does have the option to get insurance, that'll get him at least a bit of money if he decides to stay, but it wouldn't get him as much as if he was a lottery pick.

(2) As far as Smo goes, I would not be surprised if he is a big part of the team next year. One thought though is that I think he came to Maryland in part because he wanted to play PF and not C, and with both him and Mitchell at the PF position I wonder how they'll get both of them good minutes. I'm looking forward to seeing him play.

(3) I think there will be some pressure on Peters, but I think that between Allen, Faust and Howard, it won't be overwhelming. I know that none of those guys are an ACC-level point guard right now, but I hope they can develop more over the next year. Everyone on the team needs to cut down on turnovers ... yikes.

[bnickle]

Len is gone unless he drops out of the lottery. 100% gone as long as he is projected as a lottery pick. Even if he's only a 1st round pick he's probably 90% gone. Just forget the idea of him coming back. It's not happening.

Turg might have to go out and get a JUCO, transfer PG, or look over who is left in the late signing period out of HS. It's killing this team this year and it will kill them again next year if they don't effectively get someone to run the 1. Turge was a PG, he knows what he wants from a PG. It has to be driving him crazy seeing such poor PG play. Now, you don't go out and just get anyone. It has to be someone you think can be an decent ACC caliber PG.

[mdak06]

Turg might have to go out and get a JUCO, transfer PG, or look over who is left in the late signing period out of HS. It's killing this team this year and it will kill them again next year if they don't effectively get someone to run the 1. Turge was a PG, he knows what he wants from a PG. It has to be driving him crazy seeing such poor PG play. Now, you don't go out and just get anyone. It has to be someone you think can be an decent ACC caliber PG.

The question would be whether or not there's anyone available who (1) is a high-caliber point guard, (2) who would be eligible to play immediately (either as a JUCO or a grad student transfer), (3) can learn Turgeon's system quickly, and (4) is interested in going to Maryland. I have no idea if any such player exists ... maybe Turgeon can find one, but the "ACC-level PG" is a key factor. If they're not ACC-level, he might as well just develop Allen and incoming guard Peters.

[Mackus]

The question would be whether or not there's anyone available who (1) is a high-caliber point guard, (2) who would be eligible to play immediately (either as a JUCO or a grad student transfer), (3) can learn Turgeon's system quickly, and (4) is interested in going to Maryland. I have no idea if any such player exists ... maybe Turgeon can find one, but the "ACC-level PG" is a key factor. If they're not ACC-level, he might as well just develop Allen and incoming guard Peters.

I'd settle for a Logan Aronhalt type talent as long as it's a true PG. Especially if Peters is more of a combo guard than pure point.

[BSLChrisStoner]

With the season officially over, now time to look ahead.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd settle for a Logan Aronhalt type talent as long as it's a true PG. Especially if Peters is more of a combo guard than pure point.

Obviously players don't grow on trees, but finding another guard (JUCO or early graduate) with experience would be great.