20 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Fox Sports: Could the O's trade J.Johnson for Porcello?
http://mlbbuzz.yardb...rcello/12661444

[clapdiddy]

I don't know if they can...but I think I would!

[SportsGuy]

While I would trade Hardy as well, this deal makes more sense than trading Hardy for him.

I see Morosi isn't reporting anything...he is just spitballing but I wonder if he has heard anything that isn't causing him to ask this.

[clapdiddy]

Maybe it's just me, but I think it would take more than Jim Johnson for us to get Porcello.

[Mackus]

I'd be much warmer to a Johnson for Porcello trade than a Hardy for Porcello trade.

2 years of a high-priced closer for 3-years of a moderately priced starter is a trade worth making. Porcello would give us a nice stable piece in the rotation, even if I don't like his potential to be better than a #3-type starter.

If we do that, I would like to take some of the money we'll be saving and sign a veteran reliever. Not Soriano, since he'd require a draft pick and be expensive, but some of the other guys out there (even Lindstrom would be a guy I welcome back) would interest me.

If we do this trade, it pushes Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Hunter all into the bullpen (Britton probably starting in Norfolk) where maybe one of them can emerge as a closer candidate. I don't like the idea of going into a season where we're trying to contend without a set closer, but I do think there are enough pieces there that we could make it happen.

[SportsGuy]

If Det would accept Strop and Reimold for Porcello, would you rather trade that package or JJ straight up?

[Mackus]

If Det would accept Strop and Reimold for Porcello, would you rather trade that package or JJ straight up?

Definitely would rather trade Strop and Reimold. I'm optimistic about both, but neither is even close to a sure thing. Gotta be a realistic chance that one of those guys is non-tendered after the season. Unlikely, but non-trivial.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Strop become a reliable closer and Reimold a Luke Scott-esque LF or DH, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Strop implode and Reimold continue to be unable to stay on the field, yet alone productive when he is on it. Given that I'm hoping to see the Orioles contend this year, I keep the best three players in consideration (Johnson, Hardy, and Porcello) and let the wild cards with upside (Strop and Reimold) go.

[SportsGuy]

Definitely would rather trade Strop and Reimold. I'm optimistic about both, but neither is even close to a sure thing. Gotta be a realistic chance that one of those guys is non-tendered after the season. Unlikely, but non-trivial.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Strop become a reliable closer and Reimold a Luke Scott-esque LF or DH, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Strop implode and Reimold continue to be unable to stay on the field, yet alone productive when he is on it. Given that I'm hoping to see the Orioles contend this year, I keep the best three players in consideration (Johnson, Hardy, and Porcello) and let the wild cards with upside (Strop and Reimold) go.

I agree that i would rather trade them but there is something to be said about getting rid of the more expensive player and keeping the younger, cost controlled guys.

That being said, if you are trying to contend and you have this option, you keep Johnson and then see how things play out(although I may still look to JJ before ST).

[BSLZackKiesel]

I said last year that the O's should trade Jim Johnson. He was at his highest point last year, and most closers have a short shelf life. Trade him at his peak and make O'Day or Strop the closer.

[DJ MC]

If Det would accept Strop and Reimold for Porcello, would you rather trade that package or JJ straight up?

If they would, absolutely. But that's someone trading you a quarter and you offering a either a different quarter or two dimes.

[DJ MC]

I said last year that the O's should trade Jim Johnson. He was at his highest point last year, and most closers have a short shelf life. Trade him at his peak and make O'Day or Strop the closer.

I said the Orioles should trade Jim Johnson before it was cool to say the Orioles should trade Jim Johnson.

[SportsGuy]

I said last year that the O's should trade Jim Johnson. He was at his highest point last year, and most closers have a short shelf life. Trade him at his peak and make O'Day or Strop the closer.

The only time his value COULD be higher is this coming July...if he is pitching well but we are out of it(or not likely to contend at least), then we could probably get more for him then, since reliever typically fetch more at the deadline(and he will have had another half a season of success as a closer).

[SrMeowMeow]

Jim Johnson is the number one guy to move this offseason. Regression candidate, salary is going to start spiking, and he's a reliever. Porcello would be a very good return, although I'd love to get Castellanos instead.

[SportsGuy]

Jim Johnson is the number one guy to move this offseason. Regression candidate, salary is going to start spiking, and he's a reliever. Porcello would be a very good return, although I'd love to get Castellanos instead.

Castellanos would be nice but I would prefer Porcello.

[RNL25]

Castellanos would be nice but I would prefer Porcello.

There is NO way and I repea NO way Detroit trades Castellanos. I'd ship Johnson out in a heartbeat but I'd expect more in return than just Porcello who's a borderline 4th/5th starter. After the campaign that JJ put together in 2012, regresssion will definitely happen, and we should sell high. One last thing, O'Day was amazing out of the pen last year but if you put him as a closer, you'd ruin him.

[SportsGuy]

There is NO way and I repea NO way Detroit trades Castellanos. I'd ship Johnson out in a heartbeat but I'd expect more in return than just Porcello who's a borderline 4th/5th starter. After the campaign that JJ put together in 2012, regresssion will definitely happen, and we should sell high. One last thing, O'Day was amazing out of the pen last year but if you put him as a closer, you'd ruin him.

How is Porcello only a borderline 4/5 starter?

How would ODay be ruined if he was made a closer?

[Mackus]

How is Porcello only a borderline 4/5 starter?

Based on his performance to date, that's all he really is. He's got potential to be a bit better, and there are encouraging signs to expect him to improve, but all he's really ever been over almost four full years. I'd say a #4, not a #5, but still back end. A 4.55 ERA over 173 IP is his career average. Decent, but not above average. Sure his FIPs have been a bit better, but that doesn't mean that with a new defense he'll definitely match those. Looking at FIP and such is where the promise comes in though, as he's improved there every year even though his actual ERA hasn't gone down.

[BSLMattJergensen]

I'm not against moving JIm Johnson but I'm still trying to understand why Porcello makes sense for him.

I understand he's younger, a starter, and is more cost friendly than Johnson but in 4 seasons for the Tigers he's been an average pitcher.

Is this really all you can expect to get from a player of Johnson's production last season?

[You Play to Win the Game]

I'm not against moving JIm Johnson but I'm still trying to understand why Porcello makes sense for him.

I understand he's younger, a starter, and is more cost friendly than Johnson but in 4 seasons for the Tigers he's been an average pitcher.

Is this really all you can expect to get from a player of Johnson's production last season?

An average, innings eating starting pitcher is still more valuable than JJ, IMHO, especially given the cost (and the O's payroll limitations moving forward). Then there's the probability that Porcello's production improves with better defense, and more experience.

[SportsGuy]

Based on his performance to date, that's all he really is. He's got potential to be a bit better, and there are encouraging signs to expect him to improve, but all he's really ever been over almost four full years. I'd say a #4, not a #5, but still back end. A 4.55 ERA over 173 IP is his career average. Decent, but not above average. Sure his FIPs have been a bit better, but that doesn't mean that with a new defense he'll definitely match those. Looking at FIP and such is where the promise comes in though, as he's improved there every year even though his actual ERA hasn't gone down.

If you only look at ERA, I guess...but of course, that's poor.

And btw, there were 40 AL starters that threw at least 150 innings last year. Of those 40, 13 of them had an ERA of 4.5 or higher and one more was very close.

So, I think even in this offensive age, people still forget that a 4/5 starter isn't throwing the innings Porcello is and still aren't carrying 4ish ERAs. Its still not as common as people want to make it out to be.

And then when you take into account his GB rate, BB rate, K/BB, FIP, xFIP, you don't find a 4/5 starter.

His K rate is one of a back end starter though, that's for sure. Although, there are signs of improvement and reasons to make you think he can get his K rate to league average or better fairly quickly(he isn't that far from lagui average right now anyway).