35 replies to this topic

[Stotle]

Of course there is some chance he improves on last year. IMO, it's very low and even that much lower that he can put up an .870 OPS. Thats nearly 50 points higher than last year where it's pretty clear to anyone with eyes that he came close to maxing his potential. He's never going to put up a high OBP. .350 OBP seems out of the question . If he is going to improve it's going to come in the SLG department. He's a rather empty power guy in that he hits a lot of HRs but not many other XBHs. I don't see any reason to think that changes. Even if he is a 40 HR guy he's not going to give you more than 20-25 doubles. He's come close to maxing his potential. If he ever puts up an .870 OPS, hell an .850 OPS, over a full season I'll buy you any seats in OPACY you want . There is a better chance he isn't a fulltime player come the end of 2013 than there is he puts up an .870 OPS.

Sound thoughts. His swing plane is what limits his "other" extra base hits. Not sure I see where growth is supposed to come from -- if anything, he's likely to be a player whose stats are very much affected by which pitches he happens to run into. If he gets more with which he can match planes, he'll hit some bombs. If pitchers don't give him those pitches, and he isn't able to work counts to them, he'll likely struggle.

[SportsGuy]

I don't know that I'd agree it's a better risk. I think you are looking at the decision through a uniform lens -- good or bad baseball move. O's have a non-uniform need for a "type" of bat and a non-uniform fallback for not obtaining that bat. As pointed out in Jon's article, a good chunk of the calculus also comes from assets available to team. What is required to get Smoak?

We don't know.

The real world aspect has merit but intelligence should trump that...and signing Laroche to a 3/30-36 deal and losing a pick isn't intelligent.

The fans can clamor all they want...that doesn't mean you make a dumb move.

[SportsGuy]

Sound thoughts. His swing plane is what limits his "other" extra base hits. Not sure I see where growth is supposed to come from -- if anything, he's likely to be a player whose stats are very much affected by which pitches he happens to run into. If he gets more with which he can match planes, he'll hit some bombs. If pitchers don't give him those pitches, and he isn't able to work counts to them, he'll likely struggle.

Unfortunately, we have to many of these types of guys.

[Stotle]

We don't know.

The real world aspect has merit but intelligence should trump that...and signing Laroche to a 3/30-36 deal and losing a pick isn't intelligent.

The fans can clamor all they want...that doesn't mean you make a dumb move.

From baseball perspective, I agree. But teams are at least in part beholden to fans -- particularly when season ticket sales are in the balance. Further, ownership and management aren't on equal footing in any organization I've seen.

The benefit to leading the pack in moves is you aren't left needing to make a move with no realistic "good move" to make. The drawback is you risk overpaying the market. Tough line to walk.

[SportsGuy]

From baseball perspective, I agree. But teams are at least in part beholden to fans -- particularly when season ticket sales are in the balance. Further, ownership and management aren't on equal footing in any organization I've seen.

The benefit to leading the pack in moves is you aren't left needing to make a move with no realistic "good move" to make. The drawback is you risk overpaying the market. Tough line to walk.

There are other moves out there to make without being THIS dumb.

[mweb08]

Of course there is some chance he improves on last year. IMO, it's very low and even that much lower that he can put up an .870 OPS. Thats nearly 50 points higher than last year where it's pretty clear to anyone with eyes that he came close to maxing his potential. He's never going to put up a high OBP. .350 OBP seems out of the question . If he is going to improve it's going to come in the SLG department. He's a rather empty power guy in that he hits a lot of HRs but not many other XBHs. I don't see any reason to think that changes. Even if he is a 40 HR guy he's not going to give you more than 20-25 doubles. He's come close to maxing his potential. If he ever puts up an .870 OPS, hell an .850 OPS, over a full season I'll buy you any seats in OPACY you want . There is a better chance he isn't a fulltime player come the end of 2013 than there is he puts up an .870 OPS.

Anyone with eyes huh? Haha, ok.

I agree that he's not likely to become much more, and I'd gladly lock him into last years production going forward. I'm simply saying that his past and the fact that he's going into his age 27 season suggests he has a chance to become better. Hitting one extra HR every 30 or so games and getting his AVG up to .285 is not out of the question. Anyone with eyes would have had a hard time telling the difference between that and what he did without having the stats to help.

At least I guess I'll have more of a rooting interest for Davis next year. Personally, I'm not that much of a fan because I generally don't like mistake hitters, but at least he has a ton of power to hammer those mistakes.

[Stotle]

There are other moves out there to make without being THIS dumb.

Haha. That's probably a fair point. I think Jon's article was a more nuanced approach to "types" of moves, though I do understand why a FO would pull the trigger on LaRoche. Part of this also depends on what value BAL assigns to a first round draft pick, setting aside the "contract value" of the signing. Also, with the comp pick and low-1st Rdr, perhaps would have been a reasonable time to get Swisher, which in turn lightens the draft cost outlay for someone like Laroche.

[SportsGuy]

Haha. That's probably a fair point. I think Jon's article was a more nuanced approach to "types" of moves, though I do understand why a FO would pull the trigger on LaRoche. Part of this also depends on what value BAL assigns to a first round draft pick, setting aside the "contract value" of the signing. Also, with the comp pick and low-1st Rdr, perhaps would have been a reasonable time to get Swisher, which in turn lightens the draft cost outlay for someone like Laroche.

They seem to value that pick highly..good to see.

Yea, I was against a 4/60 deal for Swisher but rather give him that vs 3/30-36 for LaRoche.

[bnickle]

Anyone with eyes huh? Haha, ok.

I agree that he's not likely to become much more, and I'd gladly lock him into last years production going forward. I'm simply saying that his past and the fact that he's going into his age 27 season suggests he has a chance to become better. Hitting one extra HR every 30 or so games and getting his AVG up to .285 is not out of the question. Anyone with eyes would have had a hard time telling the difference between that and what he did without having the stats to help.

At least I guess I'll have more of a rooting interest for Davis next year. Personally, I'm not that much of a fan because I generally don't like mistake hitters, but at least he has a ton of power to hammer those mistakes.

I should have said eyes and any kind of baseball IQ. We're not going to argue this. We both know it's unlikely Davis improves on last year and you have the added bonus of getting free seats if he somehow puts up a full season at .850. Don't hold your breath. I know I won't be sweating it.

[mweb08]

I should have said eyes and any kind of baseball IQ. We're not going to argue this. We both know it's unlikely Davis improves on last year and you have the added bonus of getting free seats if he somehow puts up a full season at .850. Don't hold your breath. I know I won't be sweating it.

And that makes it better? Hilarious.

And yes, I've said it's unlikely. Much stranger things have happened, though.

[Jon Shepherd]

In case folks did not read the article...LaRoche is a construct. The point is that there are times where losing a draft pick or signing a guy to a contract beyond his value may make complete sense.

It is more or less about use of resources.

[mweb08]

In case folks did not read the article...LaRoche is a construct. The point is that there are times where losing a draft pick or signing a guy to a contract beyond his value may make complete sense.

It is more or less about use of resources.

Yes, and as you concluded, this is not one of those cases.

[Jon Shepherd]

Yes, and as you concluded, this is not one of those cases.

Right, that is the tree...and I was writing more about the forest.

[mweb08]

Right, that is the tree...and I was writing more about the forest.

Yes, I understand.

[SportsGuy]

Red Sox are in on LaRoche now.

If the Napoli hip issue causes them not to sign him, I bet they end up with laRoche and Napoli will be out there working on a one year deal. Orioles should be interested in that although you know PA won't be receptive to his physical.

[dpsmith22]

I think the FO is just waiting for the Sox to get Laroche so they can say no one was left....

This off-season has been a total disappointment so far and I don't see any reason for optimism. We are worse on paper than last season and many of the opportunities have already passed us by.

Just one time I would like to see the O's SET the market, instead of sitting idle waiting for someone to.