21 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: O's continue to look for SP
http://www.masnsport...g-pitching.html

[clapdiddy]

I'm still trying to figure out why we haven't been linked to Shawn Marcum. He'd be a guy I'd be interested in.

[Mackus]

I'm still trying to figure out why we haven't been linked to Shawn Marcum. He'd be a guy I'd be interested in.

I'm guessing they are scared of the medicals. I haven't heard much about Marcum at all.

If I'm the O's, I'm targeting more of a sure thing than a wild card. I think we've got several potential wild cards who could be very good or mediocre. Tillman, Gonzalez, Matusz, and Britton. Plus Bundy in the wings. Chen and Hammel even have a good deal of uncertainty. I'd spend my money, and possibly less of it comparatively, going after someone with less upside but also less downside. That's why I liked Sanchez, before realizing he'd get crazy expensive, because he's so consistent. That's the best thing about Porcello, too, if we go after him. I think the rotation would be best suited by one guy who above all else, you know is going to go 180-200 innings and have an ERA around league average. Especially if that can be found for a more reasonable price than some of these guys with higher upside are getting.

[JeremyStrain]

I'm still trying to figure out why we haven't been linked to Shawn Marcum. He'd be a guy I'd be interested in.

The shoulder has a lot of teams concerned.

[SportsGuy]

I'm still trying to figure out why we haven't been linked to Shawn Marcum. He'd be a guy I'd be interested in.

Im trying to figure out why we are linked to Saunders.

Just a horrible idea unless you are trading several of the young starters.

[Mackus]

Im trying to figure out why we are linked to Saunders.

Just a horrible idea unless you are trading several of the young starters.

I'll take him over not doing anything else, but I'd rather end up with someone who feels more like an upgrade than an afterthought. I'd prefer a trade for someone less HR prone. He's really not THAT bad, though. Similar recent numbers to Porcello. You just don't get any of the potential upside and there is some potential for disaster as well. Of course, he doesn't cost you a big package in trade to acquire, just a 2/$14M type deal, or hopefully a smaller 1-year deal.

It wouldn't be an awful move, is probably the best you can say about it. As long as we don't get tied into him where we have to start him even if the other guys are performing better and more deserving of the spot. I do want one other veteran SP, even if we don't trade any of the young guys.

[SportsGuy]

I'll take him over not doing anything else, but I'd rather end up with someone who feels more like an upgrade than an afterthought. I'd prefer a trade for someone less HR prone. He's really not THAT bad, though. Similar recent numbers to Porcello. You just don't get any of the potential upside and there is some potential for disaster as well. Of course, he doesn't cost you a big package in trade to acquire, just a 2/$14M type deal, or hopefully a smaller 1-year deal.

It wouldn't be an awful move, is probably the best you can say about it. As long as we don't get tied into him where we have to start him even if the other guys are performing better and more deserving of the spot. I do want one other veteran SP, even if we don't trade any of the young guys.

And bump who out of the rotation?

I would much rather do nothing than sign him.

And 2/14? Ughhh!!!

[Mackus]

And bump who out of the rotation?

I would much rather do nothing than sign him.

And 2/14? Ughhh!!!

The guys that pitched crappy last year.

I'd go into the season with Hammel, Chen, Saunders, Tillman, and Gonazalez in the rotation. Hammel and Chen in ink, the other three in dark pencil. Someone will likely be hurt of that group, which gives an opening to the best of Matusz, Britton, Johnson, or anyone else (Bundy by May).

I'd rather have surer things in the rotation and have the other guys pitching well but not have a spot than have an open competition for the 5th starter spot and get ourselves into a situation where nobody is doing the job well.

Saunders would have the least leash for me out of him, Tillman, and Gonzalez. I'd make sure that no matter what contract I give him (I'd really push for a 1-year deal, and likely would prefer other cheap 1-year options over him for 2) that it wouldn't be a factor in removing him from the rotation if he's not getting it done but it looks like Matusz or Britton or Bundy or whomever else is worthy of that spot.

I'd strongly prefer a better option than Saunders, but I'd prefer Saunders to an open competition amongst the guys who struggled (or weren't given much of a chance in Johnson and Bundy's case) last year.

[JeremyStrain]

And bump who out of the rotation?

I would much rather do nothing than sign him.

And 2/14? Ughhh!!!

I'm kinda torn on him personally. Most of me wants to say nah that's a bad idea, but then a little part of me says what if that stretch of him pitching here was half way legit. Even if he gave up another run per 9 he's still under a 4.00 ERA. Don't like 7m per though.

You know who my wishlist consists of? (Won't happen) Adam Wainwright. As good as he is, he's also one of the top 10 groundball pitchers in the game.

[SportsGuy]

I'm kinda torn on him personally. Most of me wants to say nah that's a bad idea, but then a little part of me says what if that stretch of him pitching here was half way legit. Even if he gave up another run per 9 he's still under a 4.00 ERA. Don't like 7m per though.

You know who my wishlist consists of? (Won't happen) Adam Wainwright. As good as he is, he's also one of the top 10 groundball pitchers in the game.

People are getting way too wrapped up in small sample sizes.

You have said you can't rely on Tillman and his SSS yet you are doing that with Saunders.

I get it that Saunders is more proven than Tillman but still, you are basing your desire to keep him on a SSS of starts here in BMore.

[JeremyStrain]

People are getting way too wrapped up in small sample sizes.

You have said you can't rely on Tillman and his SSS yet you are doing that with Saunders.

I get it that Saunders is more proven than Tillman but still, you are basing your desire to keep him on a SSS of starts here in BMore.

DId I ever even say I wanted to keep him? You need to chill, take a deep breath and go look at what you even responded to.

[bnickle]

The search for SP tells me DD wants to trade some of the SP we have right now. That's a good thing IMO. We need to move some young pitching for the MOO bat we need.

[Mackus]

People are getting way too wrapped up in small sample sizes.

You have said you can't rely on Tillman and his SSS yet you are doing that with Saunders.

I get it that Saunders is more proven than Tillman but still, you are basing your desire to keep him on a SSS of starts here in BMore.

I'm basing things on his past few years, not just or even heavily on what he did here.

175 IP and a 103 ERA+ in 2012. 212 IP and a 107 ERA+ in 2011. 203 IP and a 92 ERA+ in 2010. 186 IP anda 95 ERA+ in 2009. Nothing else has changed too much. I think he likely would be able to go 185 or so innings with an ERA somewhere in the 4.25 to 4.75 range. A pretty typical #4 starter. I'd like to have one extra guy who we are fairly sure about in the rotation so that (a): we don't have to hope one of Matusz, Britton, Johnson, or Bundy can do a good enough job (and waste time shuffling through the bad ones to find the one guy who does it well) and that (b): in case Chen or Hammel, the guys we are most confident in, struggle or get hurt we've got that extra stabilizing, if mediocre, presence in the rotation.

2/$14M would be a lot to pay for that. I'd really hate the second year. But 1/$6-8M wouldn't be awful, IMO, if the other, more attractive free agent SP are all getting a lot more. If you can get one of them for something palatable, then by all means go after a better pitcher than Saunders.

[Mackus]

Not sure what, if any, impact this signing has on Saunders, but looks like Liriano is close to a deal with the Pirates. Coincidentally, for the same 2/$14M that I was mentioning earlier.

http://espn.go.com/m... ... eport-says

[SportsGuy]

DId I ever even say I wanted to keep him? You need to chill, take a deep breath and go look at what you even responded to.

You havce expressed the thought enough that you may want to keep him because of what he did here...If even a part of you wants that based on the SSS of time here, I think that's wrong.

And I am very chill...its cold out.

[JeremyStrain]

You havce expressed the thought enough that you may want to keep him because of what he did here...If even a part of you wants that based on the SSS of time here, I think that's wrong.

And I am very chill...its cold out.

Yeah it's freakin freezing. Just went out to get the mail BRRRRRRRR.

I said it was worth thinking about, I didn't say that I would want to do it. I even said most of me thinks it's a bad idea. Even then, with a SSS you throw out the sample in question and look at the rest of the body of work. Looking at the rest of Tillman's resume and the rest of Saunders resume I don't think it's unreasonable to see why I consider Tillman's potential failure and Saunders' potential success.

[SportsGuy]

I'm basing things on his past few years, not just or even heavily on what he did here.

175 IP and a 103 ERA+ in 2012. 212 IP and a 107 ERA+ in 2011. 203 IP and a 92 ERA+ in 2010. 186 IP anda 95 ERA+ in 2009. Nothing else has changed too much. I think he likely would be able to go 185 or so innings with an ERA somewhere in the 4.25 to 4.75 range. A pretty typical #4 starter. I'd like to have one extra guy who we are fairly sure about in the rotation so that (a): we don't have to hope one of Matusz, Britton, Johnson, or Bundy can do a good enough job (and waste time shuffling through the bad ones to find the one guy who does it well) and that (b): in case Chen or Hammel, the guys we are most confident in, struggle or get hurt we've got that extra stabilizing, if mediocre, presence in the rotation.

2/$14M would be a lot to pay for that. I'd really hate the second year. But 1/$6-8M wouldn't be awful, IMO, if the other, more attractive free agent SP are all getting a lot more. If you can get one of them for something palatable, then by all means go after a better pitcher than Saunders.

He isn't better than what we can throw out there for less a million...but I agree he is more likely to throw the innings.

However, he could easily throw 180 innings of 4.8 ERA ball, which doesn't really help us.

[SportsGuy]

Yeah it's freakin freezing. Just went out to get the mail BRRRRRRRR.

I said it was worth thinking about, I didn't say that I would want to do it. I even said most of me thinks it's a bad idea. Even then, with a SSS you throw out the sample in question and look at the rest of the body of work. Looking at the rest of Tillman's resume and the rest of Saunders resume I don't think it's unreasonable to see why I consider Tillman's potential failure and Saunders' potential success.

No its not! LOL

[waroriole]

I'm still trying to figure out why we haven't been linked to Shawn Marcum. He'd be a guy I'd be interested in.

Isn't he a cutter guy?

[Mackus]

He isn't better than what we can throw out there for less a million...but I agree he is more likely to throw the innings.

However, he could easily throw 180 innings of 4.8 ERA ball, which doesn't really help us.

I think it's certainly possible, if not probable, that he is better than anything we could throw out there for less than a million. I think he's better than Arrieta and Britton. Matusz I'm interested in seeign what he can do, but I think it's pretty clearly that Saunders has the better shot of throwing to a 4.50 ERA or better. Matusz was abysmal last year. Johnson is unproven, though he was successful in brief appearances last year, but I think Saunders is the better bet for next year as well.

It's not that any of those guys couldn't be better than Saunders. Each and every one obviously has higher upside. I just think that Saunders has the lower downside over the collective group. Even if you can eventually settle on one of those guys being the guy, it will likely take you half the season to move past the ones who are struggling to finally settle on the good guy. Also, even with Saunders, that group of young starters is going to get a chance to pitch. You don't need just 5 starters, you need 7 or 8 if you can get them. Hammel, Chen, a veteran SP brought in via FA or trade, Tillman, and Gonzalez is a solid rotation to start the year, and then you have Matusz, Britton, Johnson, Arrieta, and Bundy waiting in the wings for when, not if, one or two of the guys who begin in the rotation get hurt or struggles and needs to be replaced. It doesn't have to be Saunders, and I'm not touting him as the best option to be the vet SP we bring in, but he is a good enough option that I'd go to him if nothing better materializes.