72 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Simple question...would you make that deal?

[BobPhelan]

I'd understand if they did but I don't think I could pull the trigger on it.

[Mike B]

Voted no. Frankly I do not think it is close. Why trade one of the best closers in baseball for Porcello. He has about a 4.55 ER and a 1.43 whip. He does eat innings but the guy has pitched in one of the best parks for a pitcher in baseball and been very mediocre.

[JeremyStrain]

Voted no. Frankly I do not think it is close. Why trade one of the best closers in baseball for Porcello. He has about a 4.55 ER and a 1.43 whip. He does eat innings but the guy has pitched in one of the best parks for a pitcher in baseball and been very mediocre.

INF defense has KILLED him. 4 years and the only games he missed were the ones DET sent him down for work in his favor too though.

[JeffLong]

Voted no. Frankly I do not think it is close. Why trade one of the best closers in baseball for Porcello. He has about a 4.55 ER and a 1.43 whip. He does eat innings but the guy has pitched in one of the best parks for a pitcher in baseball and been very mediocre.

Detroit has been hitter friendly every season since 2006.
http://www.fangraphs...d=0&season=2011

[SportsGuy]

Voted no. Frankly I do not think it is close. Why trade one of the best closers in baseball for Porcello. He has about a 4.55 ER and a 1.43 whip. He does eat innings but the guy has pitched in one of the best parks for a pitcher in baseball and been very mediocre.

Read the Porcello thread for his analysis....there is a lot more to him than this.

This would be a great move for us. I think this is a guy with TOR potential.

[Oriole85]

Voted no. Frankly I do not think it is close. Why trade one of the best closers in baseball for Porcello. He has about a 4.55 ER and a 1.43 whip. He does eat innings but the guy has pitched in one of the best parks for a pitcher in baseball and been very mediocre.

Not advocating for the move, but could a change of scenery help him even if moving to a more hitters friendly park?

[mweb08]

I'd strongly consider it if they have an appealing deal involving another starter or two lined up.

[Mike B]

Read the Porcello thread for his analysis....there is a lot more to him than this.

This would be a great move for us. I think this is a guy with TOR potential.

Not sure I agree. After 4 years and nearly 700 innings he probably is what he is.
I think he is a 3 or 4 type starter.

[SportsGuy]

Not sure I agree. After 4 years and nearly 700 innings he probably is what he is.
I think he is a 3 or 4 type starter.

And he pitched those years at ages 20-23.

So, despite the evidence that supports he is getting better and despite that he is entering the prime years of his career, you think he will not get better?

Why?

[Mackus]

I voted no.

I know the "starter is always more valuable than a closer" concept, but I don't necessarily agree in this case. Porcello is ok, and consistent, but he is what he is. I don't think there is #1 or high-end #2 starter potential in there that is simply hidden by the awful Tigers defense and the spacious stadium. I think he'd improve by moving to a team with a better infield defense, but I don't think he morphs into a front-end guy. I think he'd end up being closer to his FIP and xFIP, though likely still not matching them (groundball guys tend to have higher BABIPs). I think he'd be a 4.00-4.25 ERA guy at best, which is about a half run better than he's done in Detroit. He's also not very durable. He doesn't get hurt or miss starts, but he doesn't go deep into games. He's never gone over 182 innings and has only averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start the past two years and slightly lower than that for his career. He's also not particularly cheap for what he provides (or could be capable of with better defense). He'll be in his second of four arbitration years this season, probably earning somewhere around $4.5-5M and increasing from there, perhaps about $7M in 2014 and $10M or so in 2015. 3/$21M is a fair estimate for his next 3 seasons. He's definitely worth that, but it's far from a bargain for a 2-3 WAR starter.

Johnson isn't a bargain either, but I'd rather roll the dice with the high end closer on a team that is trying to contend than a #4 or #3 type starting pitcher. I feel like we could sign Saunders for 2/$12M or so and be about just as well off as with Porcello.

I am very interested in adding Porcello, and clearly prefer him over Saunders, but I wouldn't make the move if the cost is Johnson. Personally, I doubt I'd be willing to ante up enough to be the winning bidder for Porcello's services. Britton and Avery would be my starting offer. I don't think I'd include Schoop in a deal for him. Matusz and Arrieta would be in play, though.

[JeremyStrain]

Interesting Heyman speculating that it could be more like Strop for Porcello. I do that in a second. They want a RH OF bat and a late inning BP arm.

[Mackus]

Interesting Heyman speculating that it could be more like Strop for Porcello. I do that in a second. They want a RH OF bat and a late inning BP arm.

I'd definitely move Strop for him. We don't have much in terms of a RH OF bat, except for Reimold. I'd prefer to keep Nolan and see what he can do, but I'm not refusing to trade him by any means. Strop and Reimold I would do for Porcello.

[JeremyStrain]

I'd definitely move Strop for him. We don't have much in terms of a RH OF bat, except for Reimold. I'd prefer to keep Nolan and see what he can do, but I'm not refusing to trade him by any means. Strop and Reimold I would do for Porcello.

I wouldn't do Reimold, I'm a big believer and the risk of him being healthy/injured is too good for me to move him. He's do for a healthy year or two...law of averages and all.

[Mackus]

I wouldn't do Reimold, I'm a big believer and the risk of him being healthy/injured is too good for me to move him. He's do for a healthy year or two...law of averages and all.

Reimold's only got 3 years left as well, just like Porcello.

I do like Nolan's potential, but I'm not holding onto him out of hope he can finally stay both healthy and productive for an entire season if he can be the piece that gets us a more needed player.

Reimold and Strop is a lot of value, but I also think it's a lot of volatility. Reimold could be a 3-4 WAR OF (though I think his defense is brutal, so that may be tough) and Strop a reliable setup man or closer for the next 3 seasons. Or, both could be non-tendered at the end of 2013. Even though I don't think Porcello has #1/2 upside, I also don't think he's got much downside. I think he's a very safe bet for 175-180 innings and a roughly league average ERA.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I wouldn't do Reimold, I'm a big believer and the risk of him being healthy/injured is too good for me to move him. He's do for a healthy year or two...law of averages and all.

Even if Reimold manages to stay healthy this year, it seems like it'd only be a matter of time until that creeped up again on him. It's just one of those chronic type injuries that is going to plague him throughout his career. I am a huge Reimold fan, I love the way he plays and want nothing more than to see him carve out a future here in Baltimore... but for Porcello, I would make the deal. I view Porcello as significantly less risky than Reimold... that's pretty much my only justification.

[NewMarketSean]

This is a no-brainer for me....trade Johnson, a guy who's value will never be higher, for a 23 year old sinker-baller who will have great defense behind him?

No-brainer.

It gets more tricky if you have to add Schoop, but you could perhaps substitute Schoop for a lower-level player.

[JeremyStrain]

Reimold's only got 3 years left as well, just like Porcello.

I do like Nolan's potential, but I'm not holding onto him out of hope he can finally stay both healthy and productive for an entire season if he can be the piece that gets us a more needed player.

Reimold and Strop is a lot of value, but I also think it's a lot of volatility. Reimold could be a 3-4 WAR OF (though I think his defense is brutal, so that may be tough) and Strop a reliable setup man or closer for the next 3 seasons. Or, both could be non-tendered at the end of 2013. Even though I don't think Porcello has #1/2 upside, I also don't think he's got much downside. I think he's a very safe bet for 175-180 innings and a roughly league average ERA.

There is as much risk that Porcello puts up a mid 4 ERA that Reimold gets injured for me. Porcello throws his FB 56% of the time or something crazy like that, and his other pitches really aren't good enough to get people out consistently, so if guys just sit on the FB they will get it,it's just a matter of if they can get enough wood on it to get it out of the INF. He could move forward in development, but he's going to have to get some improved defense and he's going to have to start mixing his pitches better to do it.

I don't get people saying he's got #1/2 upside, I really don't see it. He just doesn't have the tools outside of the great FB he throws most of the time. If he's having an off-day with the FB he's going to get hit pretty hard. I think he's a great middle of the rotation guy, and I think he's a good #3 on a playoff team, or a #2 on a worse team. Just one guy's opinion though.

[Mackus]

There is as much risk that Porcello puts up a mid 4 ERA that Reimold gets injured for me. Porcello throws his FB 56% of the time or something crazy like that, and his other pitches really aren't good enough to get people out consistently, so if guys just sit on the FB they will get it,it's just a matter of if they can get enough wood on it to get it out of the INF. He could move forward in development, but he's going to have to get some improved defense and he's going to have to start mixing his pitches better to do it.

I don't get people saying he's got #1/2 upside, I really don't see it. He just doesn't have the tools outside of the great FB he throws most of the time. If he's having an off-day with the FB he's going to get hit pretty hard. I think he's a great middle of the rotation guy, and I think he's a good #3 on a playoff team, or a #2 on a worse team. Just one guy's opinion though.

I don't think Porcello has #1/2 upside at all. I think he's most likely a #3, at worst a #4.

I do think he's worth Reimold and more in trade, though. And I don't think its particularly close.

[JeremyStrain]

I don't think Porcello has #1/2 upside at all. I think he's most likely a #3, at worst a #4.

I do think he's worth Reimold and more in trade, though. And I don't think its particularly close.

See for me, Reimold is the best, most all around bat we have. So it's more than close for me, I wouldn't do it, period. We are more starved for offense than pitching, and the difference between a Saunders and a Porcello is less than the downgrade in offense we'd lose from a healthy Reimold. He to me, is the wild card of contending or not contending this year.