16 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Looking at our roster right now, I feel you will struggle to find sure things.

Assuming health, I expect Nick, Jones, Wieters and JJ to give us, on average, 3-3.5 WAR.

I would expect Johnson to be a league average or better reliever.

I expect Hammel to be a #3 starter..at worse.

ODay will be better than league average.

Other than those 7 players, I think everyone is a question mark and even with those 7, they each carry big question marks, with the exception of ODay IMO....can Hammel pitch 190+ innings? Will Nick be overs his hand/wrist injuries? Will Jones see a drop in his stats? All Hardy continue an offensive decline? Will JJ be lights or merely average?

But all in all, I think those guys are sure things for the numbers I said.

But after that, it think everything is up in the air....we have no idea what to expect out of LF. What does Davis do? Will Machado suffer a sophomore slump? What about the rotation? There are big reasons to question all of them.

[LanceRinker]

There is no sure thing in baseball - even from the guys who put up hall of fame worthy numbers from one season to the next. It greatly depends on their preparation and willingness to put the effort in.

That said - I think Jones, Wieters, Kakes, and Davis are closer to sure things than any other position player on our roster right now. Hardy I'm concerned about - his offense that is. He's been figured out.

Machado, I hope, puts together a strong 2013 but you can't say one way or the other.

As far as pitchers are concerned - I don't see a single sure thing in our rotation outside of maybe Hammel. I would never mention a RP as a sure thing unless it's Mo Rivera.

[SportsGuy]

There is no sure thing in baseball - even from the guys who put up hall of fame worthy numbers from one season to the next. It greatly depends on their preparation and willingness to put the effort in.

That said - I think Jones, Wieters, Kakes, and Davis are closer to sure things than any other position player on our roster right now. Hardy I'm concerned about - his offense that is. He's been figured out.

Machado, I hope, puts together a strong 2013 but you can't say one way or the other.

As far as pitchers are concerned - I don't see a single sure thing in our rotation outside of maybe Hammel. I would never mention a RP as a sure thing unless it's Mo Rivera.

Yea, I meant can obviously never assume health and guys could really struggle but all in all, I think it's fair to write down what I said in pen, not pencil.

[RichardZ]

Lot's of questions makes things interesting. Still think we have decent talent and good depth.

[mweb08]

Betemit is a pretty sure thing to hit righties very well.

[Mackus]

Obviously some guys like Jones and Markakis and Wieters could have pretty big differences (plus or minus) in their performances compared to what we are expecting, but I don't think that's exactly what SG is asking for.

The only regulars who I think could be significantly worse than 2012 to the point where they are borderline unplayable are:

Every single pitcher
The mess at 2B
Davis
McLouth

[mweb08]

Obviously some guys like Jones and Markakis and Wieters could have pretty big differences (plus or minus) in their performances compared to what we are expecting, but I don't think that's exactly what SG is asking for.

The only regulars who I think could be significantly worse than 2012 to the point where they are borderline unplayable are:

Every single pitcher
The mess at 2B
Davis
McLouth

The mess at 2B meets the criterion of possibly being borderline unplayable, but I don't think that position will be worse than last year. It should be better.

[dpsmith22]

I would add Machado to that list. It is possible that he could struggle to adjust. Although who would play 3rd...

[RichardZ]

The mess at 2B meets the criterion of possibly being borderline unplayable, but I don't think that position will be worse than last year. It should be better.

Depends. Roberts could be bad both offensively & defensively. Casilla could be good defensivley and bad offensively. I think Flaherty has the best offensive upside. Sleeper for me is Navarro who could be the best rounded 2B of the bunch.

[mweb08]

Depends. Roberts could be bad both offensively & defensively. Casilla could be good defensivley and bad offensively. I think Flaherty has the best offensive upside. Sleeper for me is Navarro who could be the best rounded 2B of the bunch.

I agree with all that, but it still would be hard to be worse than last year. To remind everyone of what 2B produced last year:

.213/.273/.323

[Mackus]

I agree with all that, but it still would be hard to be worse than last year. To remind everyone of what 2B produced last year:

.213/.273/.323

Amazingly, that's not the worst 2B production in baseball from last season. The Tigers 2B position only produced a 577 OPS, compared to the O's 596. Astounding!

[NewMarketSean]

I think this is the first year in a long time where I think more players get better than take a step back. They had a taste of winning and the playoffs. Most of them have been here for a while, know what it's like to be a last place team. I think focus will be narrowed and the preparation will be intense.

I just see the glass as half full now and I expect most players to improve.

Health, however, is a different issue.

[mweb08]

I think this is the first year in a long time where I think more players get better than take a step back. They had a taste of winning and the playoffs. Most of them have been here for a while, know what it's like to be a last place team. I think focus will be narrowed and the preparation will be intense.

I just see the glass as half full now and I expect most players to improve.

Health, however, is a different issue.

The times they are a-changin.

[Mackus]

I think this is the first year in a long time where I think more players get better than take a step back. They had a taste of winning and the playoffs. Most of them have been here for a while, know what it's like to be a last place team. I think focus will be narrowed and the preparation will be intense.

I just see the glass as half full now and I expect most players to improve.

Health, however, is a different issue.

I agree with you offensively, especially when you look at the production from certain positions as a whole over the season, rather individual players. I'm not sure I expect Markakis, McLouth, and Davis to reproduce their 834, 777, and 827 OPS from 2012, but I do expect RF, LF, and DH to be as good or better than the 815, 694, and 730 OPS as a whole on the year (RF is higher than I had remembered, but that's because Davis was playing there mostly when he was white hot at the end of the year).

I also think we could see improvement from 3B (729), 2B (596), and SS (674). I don't think we'll see a major step forward from Wieters, but I also don't think we're really in danger from slipping at all from the 729 OPS we got from the catcher position last year.

CF is the one area where I expect to see a drop, but I don't think it'll be huge. Worst case, unless Jones misses significant time with an injury, is dropping to about a 770-780 OPS. Last year we got an 846 OPS from the position. Also, depending on who else we bring in 1B could go up or down. We had a 774 OPS from the position last year.

I think the offensive production we had last year (712 runs, 721 team OPS) is a minimum expected baseline for 2013. I'm pretty optimistic even without bringing in a bigger bat that we should at least improve on that a little. If we sign/trade for a real impact DH/1B to add to the team, then we could see a pretty substantial increase.

[NewMarketSean]

The times they are a-changin.

Why wouldnt they? We're out of the tunnel. We can all see now. Isn't that nice?

[mweb08]

Why wouldnt they? We're out of the tunnel. We can all see now. Isn't that nice?

Yes it is.

[LanceRinker]

I do expect the players to be hungry for more winning now. That alone, the psychological difference in their mindset, is sometimes the only real difference you need from one year to the next.

It'll still hinge on health and pitching though. I think guys like Hammel and Chen are pretty much locks to keep up the quality stuff in 2013. Tillman I'm more high on to keep up the good work than I am Gonzalez. We will still need whoever is given that 5th starter opportunity to perform decent on a consistent basis though.

Even if we have a rotation full of legit 3's and 4's, as long as they're consistent we will be in the thick of things.