66 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

http://www.baltimore... ... 838.column

[LanceRinker]

It very well could be - but I think a trade of Jim Johnson will help keep it below that. Or at least help balance it out some with the O's picking up some additional talent (cheaper talent) in return. He's the most likely to get traded IMO.

[waroriole]

If we do what he thinks will happen, it will be around 90M.

[RichardZ]

Apparently some people who are smarter than Schmuck have it around 85M without any further moves. Some guys at OH did a nice job with it and you can find a pretty reasonable estimate at Baseball Reference. Schmuck looks to have done a very lazy job here.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The idea of a payroll over $100M was touched on in this piece from Kevin:

Orioles Approach To Free Agency
http://baltimorespor...ch-free-agency/
Discussion: http://baltimorespor....php?f=3&t=3299

Andrew Gibson over at Camden Chat had them at $94.7M for 23 players (which included all 14 arb players including Reynolds) using MLBTR's arb estimates http://sbn.to/TgKoTc

[mweb08]

They should easily be able to afford over 100M imo. Plus, it should be considered that Brob is coming off the books after this year and the national TV money will increase after next year as well.

[PD24]

They absolutely should be able to afford over 100M. Let's not forget every single person with MASN on their TV is paying $3 per month to Peter Angelos...

That being said, there are ways to get creative if 100M is the limit. Trade JJ for young major league talent and sign Koji to close. Trade Hardy and move Manny to SS.

Be efficient. Buy and sell. Buy low and sell high.

[LanceRinker]

They absolutely should be able to afford over 100M. Let's not forget every single person with MASN on their TV is paying $3 per month to Peter Angelos...

That being said, there are ways to get creative if 100M is the limit. Trade JJ for young major league talent and sign Koji to close. Trade Hardy and move Manny to SS.

Be efficient. Buy and sell. Buy low and sell high.

I agree with you on this. We have many different creative ways to keep the payroll around $100 and $110 million while adding good players.

Trade Jim Johnson and J.J. Hardy and that will free up between $12 and $15 million right there. You could get a nice return of prospects and major league ready talent between the two. Then with the money saved you could go after a hitter or a pitcher.

The team also has some young pitching they could trade for a young, capable bat (Hosmer).

[SportsGuy]

@masnRoch: Asked more about budget, Duquette said "I know we have enough money to field a competitive team." Added won't get in top 10 "anytime soon"

Duq also estimated that the increase in arb will be about 22M....MLBTR estimated about 28M.

Last year, top 10 would have had us over 98 million.

http://content.usato... ... aries/team

[SportsGuy]

@masnRoch: Asked more about budget, Duquette said "I know we have enough money to field a competitive team." Added won't get in top 10 "anytime soon"

Duq also estimated that the increase in arb will be about 22M....MLBTR estimated about 28M.

Last year, top 10 would have had us over 98 million.

http://content.usato... ... aries/team

Certainly makes you think that if we trade for someone making good money, like Butler, that we could see Johnson dealt.

[mweb08]

What would 22 million in ARB raises put the payroll at?

[JeremyStrain]

What would 22 million in ARB raises put the payroll at?

I THINK about 77m.

[SportsGuy]

What would 22 million in ARB raises put the payroll at?

Pushing 80 million...18 players.

So, perhaps if you add a 7-10M player, you don't have to make other moves to get the payroll down.

[SportsGuy]

I THINK about 77m.

Yep....MLBTR thinks it will be more than Duq is saying.

So, just for discussion purposes, we can say 80 million.

Perhaps they will add another 15 million but still have 7 players.

https://spreadsheets... ... utput=html

[mweb08]

Pushing 80 million...18 players.

So, perhaps if you add a 7-10M player, you don't have to make other moves to get the payroll down.

Then they should be able add about 15M. Really they should be able to add about 30 million, but that doesn't seem likely.

[JeremyStrain]

Yep....MLBTR thinks it will be more than Duq is saying.

So, just for discussion purposes, we can say 80 million.

Perhaps they will add another 15 million but still have 7 players.

https://spreadsheets... ... utput=html

Yeah I was going to say I'd build in a 3-5m cushion on that.

[SportsGuy]

Then they should be able add about 15M. Really they should be able to add about 30 million, but that doesn't seem likely.

Duq has really been talking like they will not spend big on the overall payroll.

I wonder if that means that if they do get a chance to sign JH, will they just extend the payroll more than they want or will they in fact look to trade guys like the JJs?

[JeremyStrain]

Duq has really been talking like they will not spend big on the overall payroll.

I wonder if that means that if they do get a chance to sign JH, will they just extend the payroll more than they want or will they in fact look to trade guys like the JJs?

In fairness he said that they wouldn't add payroll through signings. He never said they wouldn't take on money in a trade...

[SportsGuy]

In fairness he said that they wouldn't add payroll through signings. He never said they wouldn't take on money in a trade...

I am just saying overall payroll.

[SportsGuy]

http://brittghiroli.... ... lds-court/

85-90 million?