I think Duke is clearly better, but MD will have a chance to beat them head to head due to the match-up issues you posed.
I still like NC State better, and just feel like UNC will come around. My official prediction heading into ACC play is a 4th place, 12 win ACC season.
Im not giving up on UNC either...They just don't look to be as good as you would have thought.
HOWEVER, they are young and will get better as the season goes on.
NC St has lost to good and bad teams thus far.
Put it this way...If I were a MD fan and seeing how good Wells and Len are and seeing the depth and athleticism, I put my team's roster up against anyone's.
Just watching them the little I have(nothing like what you guys have seen), I see a big, athletic team who may have some issues at time scoring if they don't make perimeter shots but overall, a top 20 team...at the very least.
If MD is anywhere below a 5 seed in the tourney this year, I will be surprised UNLESS their NC schedule holds them back, which is possible.
But I think they win 12-14 ACC games and will be poised to be a 3/4 seed in the NCAAs.