37 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Don't get caught up in stats in the minors. Manny's numbers were underwhelming but he did pretty good in his debut. Just a lot of stuff going on for them, when they are learning/adjusting and working on things there are going to be statistical seasons that don't impress. He was also out of HS, so there is going to be more learning than practice.

He's legit though.

Not saying anything about the deal, cause I don't even think it's in of the realm of possibility on either side, but to say that he's lost some shine is absolutely false. There isn't a GM in baseball that wouldn't JUMP at the chance to deal for him.

Poor thinking IMO.

Agree there are other things to look at but a lot of Ks, few walks and a bad BA is not something to sweep under the rug and not care about.

And he has no doubt lost some shine...but he is still a top prospect...there's no doubt about that.

But anyone who doesn't have a heightened sense of concern about 14 walks and 75 K's in 300 at bats is fooling themselves.

[JeremyStrain]

Poor thinking IMO.

Agree there are other things to look at but a lot of Ks, few walks and a bad BA is not something to sweep under the rug and not care about.

And he has no doubt lost some shine...but he is still a top prospect...there's no doubt about that.

But anyone who doesn't have a heightened sense of concern about 14 walks and 75 K's in 300 at bats is fooling themselves.

Think whatever you like, you're entitled. He was rushed to AA, he will start there again this year, and I'm willing to bet money he does better this time around. AA is the learning curve stop for all prospects.

Matt Kemp had 28 BB and 112 K and 25 BB to 92 K his 19 and 20 years. Votto had 52 BB and 122K his 21 season. Cano had 33BB to 86K and 26BB to 65K his 19-20 seasons.

You just gotta let them develop, work on 1 thing at a time, the fact that he's got a .367 OBP in 276 games should tell you that he's going to be just fine. No need to harp on a small sample size when a kid is years younger than the average in a league and talk about how he's "lost some shine".

It was a half season in a league over his head developmentally, nothing to freak out about in the slightest. Look at the rest of his career numbers and tell me you honestly think this new sample is what you are going to get from him going forward. It's just part of development. He'll be fine.

[SportsGuy]

Think whatever you like, you're entitled. He was rushed to AA, he will start there again this year, and I'm willing to bet money he does better this time around. AA is the learning curve stop for all prospects.

Matt Kemp had 28 BB and 112 K and 25 BB to 92 K his 19 and 20 years. Votto had 52 BB and 122K his 21 season. Cano had 33BB to 86K and 26BB to 65K his 19-20 seasons.

You just gotta let them develop, work on 1 thing at a time, the fact that he's got a .367 OBP in 276 games should tell you that he's going to be just fine. No need to harp on a small sample size when a kid is years younger than the average in a league and talk about how he's "lost some shine".

It was a half season in a league over his head developmentally, nothing to freak out about in the slightest. Look at the rest of his career numbers and tell me you honestly think this new sample is what you are going to get from him going forward. It's just part of development. He'll be fine.

Im not arguing that he will likely be fine...Im not arguing that he wasnt young for his league and things like that.

That's all relatively obvious at this point.

However, the lack of contact, the lack of walks, etc....none of that is a good sign no matter how much you want to sugar coat it.

[DJ MC]

I have thought this trade through about 20 times and everytime, I say no way!!!

And It all comes back to why would Detroit trade a big time prospect such as Castellanos?

It is there equivelant to Machado, for Johnson, Patton and Hardy?

I would be pretty steamed and bothered if we traded Machado for those three if we were in Detroits shoes. My good buddy is a hardcore Tigers fan and Castellano's is someone the organization sees replacing Cabby at 3rd base in the not so distant furtue. I just don't see the Tigers dangling a big prospect like Castellanos out for a return like Hardy, Johnson, and Patton. Don't get me wrong those three had a big year here. But can Detroit make that gamble that they can repeat next year? I don't think so, not for Castellano's

They need to improve their defense, add another bat to a top-heavy lineup and get another stopper for the bullpen: three of the biggest reasons they almost didn't make the playoffs and then after going on a run lost in the Series. Hardy helps with two of those holes, and Johnson with the other along with Patton.

Depending on what the Tigers truly think about Cabrera at third base, Castellanos is either a year (and likely two) away or blocked long-term. This team is built to win now.

Add in the status of Mike Illitch as a wild-card and this deal makes sense for both sides.

[JeremyStrain]

Im not arguing that he will likely be fine...Im not arguing that he wasnt young for his league and things like that.

That's all relatively obvious at this point.

However, the lack of contact, the lack of walks, etc....none of that is a good sign no matter how much you want to sugar coat it.

In a full season he would have had 30 BB and 150 K, which is right in line with the other guys I posted. In every other season he has had exceptional contact and BB numbers, so trying to make it out to be a bad sign is making something out of nothing.

It's not a bad sign because there is nothing to it. You're trying to read to much into development by using statistics in hindsight.

[SportsGuy]

In a full season he would have had 30 BB and 150 K, which is right in line with the other guys I posted. In every other season he has had exceptional contact and BB numbers, so trying to make it out to be a bad sign is making something out of nothing.

It's not a bad sign because there is nothing to it. You're trying to read to much into development by using statistics in hindsight.

And you are trying to be a scout and ignoring big factors at play.

Just because you can come up with a few guys that did similar things means nothing...I can probably come up with 100s of examples that failed because of it.

Im going by what he actually did...and not walking, striking out a lot and having a poor BA are not good signs...Any scout saying those are positives is a moron.

Now, that doesn't mean he won't be successful...it doesn't mean that the hit ability isn't there...it doesn't mean that he won't turn it on this year and have a big year.

It just means that for the 2012 season, he had some alarming numbers and its something to watch. Had he done what MM did, carry a better OPS, have more walks, etc...you feel much better about him even though the numbers still weren't great. But he didn't do that. He struggled mightily and didn't show a lot of good signs, in terms of performance.

He has even been poor in the AFL.

[JeremyStrain]

And you are trying to be a scout and ignoring big factors at play.

Just because you can come up with a few guys that did similar things means nothing...I can probably come up with 100s of examples that failed because of it.

Im going by what he actually did...and not walking, striking out a lot and having a poor BA are not good signs...Any scout saying those are positives is a moron.

Now, that doesn't mean he won't be successful...it doesn't mean that the hit ability isn't there...it doesn't mean that he won't turn it on this year and have a big year.

It just means that for the 2012 season, he had some alarming numbers and its something to watch. Had he done what MM did, carry a better OPS, have more walks, etc...you feel much better about him even though the numbers still weren't great. But he didn't do that. He struggled mightily and didn't show a lot of good signs, in terms of performance.

He has even been poor in the AFL.

I'm TRYING to be a scout? How many guys have you gone out and evaluated in person?

You are trying to prove an agenda with a small sample size, something you would lay into other people about, just because you want to say that he's not the prospect he was a year ago, which is stupid in itself because you do not knock prospects down lists because of performance at that level and age.

He still grades fine with power, his hit tool is still fine, his plate discipline is still good. Like 90% of prospects he had to deal with advanced off speed offerings he wasn't used to seeing at a young age, that's not making excuses or ignoring anything, it's just not enough of a story in half a season to re-evaluate a player.

So what are you assessing by his half season in AA? Because it sounds like you are hedging your bets and saying he may bounce back just fine, but at the same time trying to say that you are worried about him as a prospect after that half season. You can't have it both ways.

Put it out there then, what you do you think he's going to do as a player now after this half season that you may or may not have thought about him before this season?

[Mackus]

I don't know much about Castellanos, but just from looking at the stats, I think you've gotta be worried that he doesn't really do much else besides get singles. He's amazing at getting singles. Truly an elite contact hitter based on his minor league numbers. But he only walks 7.2% of the time in the minors and his ISO is only .127 which isn't anything special.

I guess the question to ask from a scouting standpoint is if he's going to develop more power or can he learn to take a walk. If he can walk 9% of the time (league average is 8%) and have an ISO of 165 (league average is 150), then he can be really valuable if he can hit .300 or higher (which it looks like he'll be able to do). That'd give him a line of about .300/.365/.465 which would be pretty valuable, though still not a major star. If he hits .330, then he's a true all star level hitter, at about .330/.395/.495.

He's a very intriguing guy at a position we need depth at (if Machado moves to SS), but giving up Hardy and Johnson for almost no MLB help (taking back Peralta is a negative, not a positive) is a lot to ask of a team trying to contend. I'm not sure Castellanos is enticing enough to be make it worth taking that sort of a hit to the 2013 MLB roster.

[SportsGuy]

I'm TRYING to be a scout? How many guys have you gone out and evaluated in person?

You are trying to prove an agenda with a small sample size, something you would lay into other people about, just because you want to say that he's not the prospect he was a year ago, which is stupid in itself because you do not knock prospects down lists because of performance at that level and age.

He still grades fine with power, his hit tool is still fine, his plate discipline is still good. Like 90% of prospects he had to deal with advanced off speed offerings he wasn't used to seeing at a young age, that's not making excuses or ignoring anything, it's just not enough of a story in half a season to re-evaluate a player.

So what are you assessing by his half season in AA? Because it sounds like you are hedging your bets and saying he may bounce back just fine, but at the same time trying to say that you are worried about him as a prospect after that half season. You can't have it both ways.

Put it out there then, what you do you think he's going to do as a player now after this half season that you may or may not have thought about him before this season?

Actually, I am evaluating this trade and the bottom line is, Castellanos can not be worth as much right now as he was worth last year. That doesn't mean he isn't a top prospect or can't be good going forward but its foolish to ignore the issues he had this season.

There has to be more doubt in your mind right now vs last year.

Plenty of guys have looked great in the lower minors, gotten into the upper minors and not been the same player...and, many times, it is because of the exact things I am concerned about...lack of walks, missing bats, etc...Those are issues...for you to act like they aren't is wrong.

To answer you...I have no idea what he will do next year. Since I haven't seen him play, i can only go by what he actually did and what he actually did, against higher level pitching(albeit at a young age) gives me at least some level of concern that didn't exist before.

He likely will be fine this year. He likely still has an 800ish OPS season, which would be very good for the eastern league, especially at his age.

But if you are asking me about trading for him, I am saying that I would not be willing to give up as much for him today as I would have a year ago and that is what this thread and this discussion is about.

[SportsGuy]

I don't know much about Castellanos, but just from looking at the stats, I think you've gotta be worried that he doesn't really do much else besides get singles. He's amazing at getting singles. Truly an elite contact hitter based on his minor league numbers. But he only walks 7.2% of the time in the minors and his ISO is only .127 which isn't anything special.

I guess the question to ask from a scouting standpoint is if he's going to develop more power or can he learn to take a walk. If he can walk 9% of the time (league average is 8%) and have an ISO of 165 (league average is 150), then he can be really valuable if he can hit .300 or higher (which it looks like he'll be able to do). That'd give him a line of about .300/.365/.465 which would be pretty valuable, though still not a major star. If he hits .330, then he's a true all star level hitter, at about .330/.395/.495.

He's a very intriguing guy at a position we need depth at (if Machado moves to SS), but giving up Hardy and Johnson for almost no MLB help (taking back Peralta is a negative, not a positive) is a lot to ask of a team trying to contend. I'm not sure Castellanos is enticing enough to be make it worth taking that sort of a hit to the 2013 MLB roster.

I read that some believe he could contend for a batting title someday.

That's great...I have no doubts that many believe that and if he can be a 300+ hitter year in and year out, that is very valuable even if he only has a 6-7% walk rate.

However, if all he can be is a 260-280 hitter, all of a sudden the power issues and the walk rates become a much bigger issue.

My only point is, you have to be more concerned about those things right now. I just don't see how you can't be, no matter how much talent you believe he has. Plenty of talented failed prospects out there...At some point, it has to come out in performance against advanced competition.(to be fair to NC, given his age, that point is this season...but what he did in 2012 can't be overlooked)

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Manny vs Castellanos....You have to see why you have less concern for MM vs NC.(and yes, I get that Manny is a better prospect anyway but he went to the same league, a few months younger and didn't strike out a ton, walked a decent amount and showed more power)

[JeremyStrain]

Actually, I am evaluating this trade and the bottom line is, Castellanos can not be worth as much right now as he was worth last year. That doesn't mean he isn't a top prospect or can't be good going forward but its foolish to ignore the issues he had this season.

There has to be more doubt in your mind right now vs last year.

Plenty of guys have looked great in the lower minors, gotten into the upper minors and not been the same player...and, many times, it is because of the exact things I am concerned about...lack of walks, missing bats, etc...Those are issues...for you to act like they aren't is wrong.

To answer you...I have no idea what he will do next year. Since I haven't seen him play, i can only go by what he actually did and what he actually did, against higher level pitching(albeit at a young age) gives me at least some level of concern that didn't exist before.

He likely will be fine this year. He likely still has an 800ish OPS season, which would be very good for the eastern league, especially at his age.

But if you are asking me about trading for him, I am saying that I would not be willing to give up as much for him today as I would have a year ago and that is what this thread and this discussion is about.

That's fine, I said before I wasn't getting into the trade evaluation portion I was just defending the evaluation of Castellanos himself.

I personally think the trade places way too much value on Castellanos as a prospect, but I think framework is there for either a Hardy or JJ swap, but together I don't think so. I also don't think the O's who are a contending team just like DET have any interest in trading 3 essential ML pieces for players that are 1-2 years away from being ready.

The power will come, 20-30 HR pop in there. In 162 game season he would be averaging right about 40 doubles per year, and got up to double digit HR in addition this past year. You want to know if a guy is going to put up power as he moves up, look at his double output. They turn from 2B to HR really fast as they fill out and adjust to the tougher pitching and learn what to hit and what to lay off of.

[Mackus]

The power will come, 20-30 HR pop in there. In 162 game season he would be averaging right about 40 doubles per year, and got up to double digit HR in addition this past year. You want to know if a guy is going to put up power as he moves up, look at his double output. They turn from 2B to HR really fast as they fill out and adjust to the tougher pitching and learn what to hit and what to lay off of.

Kind of sounds like Markakis without the HRs and walks, as a prospect. Or, like Markakis now, as an MLB player.

I think one of the JJs seems reasonable for Castellanos, but not both of them. And I'd only deal Hardy if we have a solid option for 3B in 2013 already in place.

[SportsGuy]

That's fine, I said before I wasn't getting into the trade evaluation portion I was just defending the evaluation of Castellanos himself.

I personally think the trade places way too much value on Castellanos as a prospect, but I think framework is there for either a Hardy or JJ swap, but together I don't think so. I also don't think the O's who are a contending team just like DET have any interest in trading 3 essential ML pieces for players that are 1-2 years away from being ready.

The power will come, 20-30 HR pop in there. In 162 game season he would be averaging right about 40 doubles per year, and got up to double digit HR in addition this past year. You want to know if a guy is going to put up power as he moves up, look at his double output. They turn from 2B to HR really fast as they fill out and adjust to the tougher pitching and learn what to hit and what to lay off of.

Exactly!

But, had he had a season similar to MM in AA, I wouldn't feel that way...would you?

[JeremyStrain]

I read that some believe he could contend for a batting title someday.

That's great...I have no doubts that many believe that and if he can be a 300+ hitter year in and year out, that is very valuable even if he only has a 6-7% walk rate.

However, if all he can be is a 260-280 hitter, all of a sudden the power issues and the walk rates become a much bigger issue.

My only point is, you have to be more concerned about those things right now. I just don't see how you can't be, no matter how much talent you believe he has. Plenty of talented failed prospects out there...At some point, it has to come out in performance against advanced competition.(to be fair to NC, given his age, that point is this season...but what he did in 2012 can't be overlooked)

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Manny vs Castellanos....You have to see why you have less concern for MM vs NC.(and yes, I get that Manny is a better prospect anyway but he went to the same league, a few months younger and didn't strike out a ton, walked a decent amount and showed more power)

Keep in mind that Manny started there after preparing for it in ST, and Nick got promoted there after tearing up high A for 50 games or so. Much harder adjustment coming to AA in season than starting out there. Manny got off to a slow start at AA too, he had a great first game or so, but then fell off for a couple months before getting it back together in the summer. Give Nick 100 games there this season and take another look at him. I saw him live late last season, but I'm going to go check up on him a couple times this season.

You wanna catch a game early this season when Erie comes into town? We can get a good look at Castellanos and probably catch Gausman if we really try too.

[JeremyStrain]

Exactly!

But, had he had a season similar to MM in AA, I wouldn't feel that way...would you?

Nah I still think that an all-star level SS and CL are too much to give up at one time when the best player you get back is 2 years from the majors.

I like Nick a LOT, I had him in my top 10 in 2010, I wanted him BAD when he slipped to the supplemental. I would trade Johnson for him though in a second.

[SportsGuy]

Keep in mind that Manny started there after preparing for it in ST, and Nick got promoted there after tearing up high A for 50 games or so. Much harder adjustment coming to AA in season than starting out there. Manny got off to a slow start at AA too, he had a great first game or so, but then fell off for a couple months before getting it back together in the summer. Give Nick 100 games there this season and take another look at him. I saw him live late last season, but I'm going to go check up on him a couple times this season.

You wanna catch a game early this season when Erie comes into town? We can get a good look at Castellanos and probably catch Gausman if we really try too.

Yea, that would be great.

BTW, let me be clear...As I said, my assessment is based solely off of, do I trade 2 of my best assets for a guy that showed that he had some issues in AA this year?

Let me say this...Had he done what MM did in AA, I would trade both JJs for him in a heartbeat because that would tell me he will be our third baseman by July.

Now, there has to be at least some doubt if we see him in the majors at all in 2013 and can he carry over what he did in the lower minors to the upper minors?

I would still love to get him and if we could trade either JJ for him straight up, I do it in a second...In fact, I probably deal either JJ and Patton(to go along with the theme of the proposed deal).

[JeremyStrain]

Kind of sounds like Markakis without the HRs and walks, as a prospect. Or, like Markakis now, as an MLB player.

I think one of the JJs seems reasonable for Castellanos, but not both of them. And I'd only deal Hardy if we have a solid option for 3B in 2013 already in place.

He's got a little more power than Markakis and a little better contact rate I think, but outside of that yeah pretty similar. I think Nick will get to his .350 OBP with BB, and Castellanos will get to the same place with better average.

[JeremyStrain]

Yea, that would be great.

BTW, let me be clear...As I said, my assessment is based solely off of, do I trade 2 of my best assets for a guy that showed that he had some issues in AA this year?

Let me say this...Had he done what MM did in AA, I would trade both JJs for him in a heartbeat because that would tell me he will be our third baseman by July.

Now, there has to be at least some doubt if we see him in the majors at all in 2013 and can he carry over what he did in the lower minors to the upper minors?

I would still love to get him and if we could trade either JJ for him straight up, I do it in a second...In fact, I probably deal either JJ and Patton(to go along with the theme of the proposed deal).

I'll check the calendar and see what it looks like once we get a good idea of what the rosters are going to look like. I expect Castellanos and Gausman to both start in AA for at least 30 games or so, but stranger things have happened.

Yeah I get it, it's kinda like the MVP debate, there are two similar evaluations, the kind as a player which is what I tend to do, and then a different kind if you are evaluating a trade. It might not seem like much of a difference, but there are different kinds of weight to different things. (Performance versus skill sets and so forth)

I think he's too far from the majors to really look at what you think he'll do or when he'll be there. He needs a full season in the minors this year and then you can look at him in August or September and see where he is (or maybe he just destroys AA and changes that view). I would do Patton and one of the JJ's for him, but I'd much rather it be Johnson than Hardy, just to give him that season to develop without having to worry about 3B/SS. I also think Manny is better at 3B defensively than Castellanos, and we'll lose a lot on defense going from Manny/Hardy to Manny/Nick. Just don't know how much that will end up being yet.