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2025 NCAAT: Maryland (4) vs. Grand Canyon (13) March 21st 4:35PM


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#21 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 March 2025 - 06:19 PM

ESPN: Men's March Madness 2025 bracket: Get to know all 68 teams

https://www.espn.com...acket-explained

 

Maryland Terrapins

Region: West
Record: 25-8
Tournament ceiling: Final Four (Odds: +850)

 

If you're looking for a Final Four sleeper, you've found one. Freshman Derik Queen (15.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG), a projected lottery draft pick with an old-school game, and Julian Reese (13.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG), the brother of WNBA standout Angel Reese, lead a team that won 11 of 13 games to end the regular season. The Terps also went 39% from 3 in that stretch. They're a strong squad that found a rhythm late, which isn't unusual when you consider they were starting a true freshman and three transfers. If point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie can limit his turnovers, he can help the team with the ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency make its first Final Four appearance since 2002, the year the Terps also won their first and only national championship.



#22 BSLZackKiesel

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Posted 19 March 2025 - 09:48 AM

Leave no later than Tuesday to recover from the long flight and acclimate to the time change. At least they don't have to go to Denver and deal with the altitude with a thin bench.

Looks like they left College Park this morning.


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#23 glenn__davis

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:00 AM

Maybe I'm being a negative nelly but I feel worse about this game as the week progresses.  Have a feeling Willard already has one foot out the door.  No inside info at all there, just the hunch I have based on the reports of the Villanova job.  As others have mentioned that did not go so well for him last time.

 

Hope I'm wrong obviously, but west coast game, not a great matchup for us, etc.



#24 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:07 AM

The west coast trip is the thing that worries me most. I believe in the 🦀 5. They’ll pull it out.

#25 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:42 AM


The west coast trip is the thing that worries me most. I believe in the 🦀 5. They’ll pull it out.

Meh. Ill be impressed if they get through GCU and Col St. On paper they should but things working against them.

#26 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:47 AM

I’m more worried about Memphis than Col St but either will be tough. Have to win tomorrow first. I’m confident they learned from their first trip west. They’re also a lot better since their first trip too.

#27 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:50 AM

I’m more worried about Memphis than Col St but either will be tough. Have to win tomorrow first. I’m confident they learned from their first trip west. They’re also a lot better since their first trip too.

Meh



#28 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 08:52 AM

Yeah I mean obvious caveat anything can happen in March yada yada but I think having a lineup where you trust every starter to be your leading scorer in the game gives you a pretty high floor against weaker opponents, if they want to try to shut down Queen then simply trust your three starters who are good three-point shooters, etc  



#29 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 09:17 AM

Almost anything can happen in a March tournament game, but we shouldn't be stressing Grand Canyon U.

#30 Mackus

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 09:45 AM

I think I'm an appropriate level of nervous about the game. Certainly wouldn't be an all-time upset so need to take it seriously.

Though it would be the worst upset for Maryland ever, right? We were a 5 seed against College of Charleston. Man those couple years stunk!

#31 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 09:54 AM

Almost anything can happen in a March tournament game, but we shouldn't be stressing Grand Canyon U.

Play this game 100 times, MD probably wins 98.
Terps should win. Might win comfortably.

But it is the tournament. Teams get tight if things don't go as expected.

Grand Canyon has good depth. They've played good teams. They could push MD a bit.

MD needs to go inside over and over.
Get then in foul trouble. Get them collapsing in the point, and then knock down open looks.

#32 Mackus

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 10:00 AM

Play this game 100 times, MD probably wins 98.
Terps should win. Might win comfortably.

Think that's overstating it, I'd say like 85-90.

1 seeds have won 98.7% of the time in tourney history.
2 seeds 93% of the time.

#33 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 10:03 AM

Think that's overstating it, I'd say like 85-90.

1 seeds have won 98.7% of the time in tourney history.
2 seeds 93% of the time.

Yeah, Im guessing we win  75%-80% of the time



#34 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 10:11 AM

Moneyline is -630 which translates to 86.3% chance

 

https://www.boydsbet...nversion-chart/



#35 Mackus

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 10:13 AM

Yeah, Im guessing we win  75%-80% of the time

 

Historically you're dead on.  4-seeds have won 78.8% of the time.

 

Found some gambling site that says an 10.5 point favorite has a 83% chance to win.



#36 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 11:36 AM

Fwiw I like GCU getting 10.5. Going out West. There may be fire to the Willard stuff. I just sense a sweaty game.

#37 1970

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 11:46 AM

Just saw that Bilas and Vitale are both picking MD to win round one and then lose in Round of 32.



#38 Ravens2006

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 03:44 PM

Just saw that Bilas and Vitale are both picking MD to win round one and then lose in Round of 32.


That's kind of the most likely scenario to me too... hope I'm wrong. I would bet a money line that they don't survive past Sunday.

#39 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 04:01 PM


That's kind of the most likely scenario to me too... hope I'm wrong. I would bet a money line that they don't survive past Sunday.

You can

#40 JeremyStrain

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Posted 20 March 2025 - 04:26 PM

Just saw that Bilas and Vitale are both picking MD to win round one and then lose in Round of 32.


Was thinking the same thing, but I could see Col St upset Memphis and then MD handle them, but that would give them a date with either UConn or FL.


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