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Camden Chat: The Orioles are finally spending money, but in an unconventional way


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 January 2025 - 03:56 PM

Camden Chat: The Orioles are finally spending money, but in an unconventional way

https://www.camdench...rubenstein-2024



#2 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 15 January 2025 - 05:20 PM

Mind boggling article. The O's payroll is up 50%. But they haven't really improved the roster at all. I am not going to quibble whether ONeill is better than Santander or Sanchez is better than McCann.

 

They spent $25M for two back end of the rotation starters. At least we hope they are that serviceable. Sorry but I really think this FO is out to lunch. Can it work? Sure. Do I think we are making the best attempt at winning a WS while we have this core? Nope.

 

But come April 1st I'll be watching every game and hope like heck I am way off base. 



#3 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 15 January 2025 - 09:25 PM

This more or less sums up the article, and is where we find the big unanswered question.

 

 

The only player that is guaranteed a spot on the 2026 Orioles if he wants it (barring a trade) is the recently-signed O’Neill, but even he can opt out after 2025. While the Orioles have loaded up in 2025, they have virtually nothing tied up beyond October. 

 

That is where Elias’ style of roster construction comes in. As Orioles GM he has rarely shown an appetite for risk, or a willingness to give up any amount of team control. Free agents under his watch have almost exclusively signed one-year deals, he is yet to hand out a significant extension, and prospects are treated as an invaluable commodity that will need to be pried away from his clutching hands. This has allowed him to build up a really good team in Baltimore, but can it lead to a World Series? That remains unclear.


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#4 weird-O

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 09:21 AM

He [Elias ]doesn’t want to jeopardize the future. He likes to hedge his bets and give himself multiple avenues of success. It’s logical, and it will probably lead the Orioles to be quite good again in 2025 and beyond.

To hell with the present. Lets preserve the future!

 

It's easy to see why the Angelos family hired this guy. He has an aversion to spending money, and is never afraid to forego today, because it may harm some mystical tomorrow.


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#5 ivanbalt

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 09:39 AM

To hell with the present. Lets preserve the future!

 

It's easy to see why the Angelos family hired this guy. He has an aversion to spending money, and is never afraid to forego today, because it may harm some mystical tomorrow.


I was saying to a coworker this morning that the Orioles should get ahead of things and start trading their young talent now to keep that #1 farm system going forever.


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#6 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 09:59 AM

The Astros are again the team you can look towards when it comes to spending and generally how Elias will proceed IMO. The Stros largest FA contract is 6/100 to Carlos Lee in 2007. Their biggest extension was to Altuve at 5/151. They let Springer walk. They let Correa walk. They are probably letting Bregman walk though he could return. They traded Tucker and locked up Yordan. They make timely FA dealsthat dont break the bank. Hader for 5 years. Walker for 3 years. Abreu for 3 years. Verlander bigger 2 year deals twice then took him back on in the Mets trade. All of it lead to them being a Top 10 or higher payroll during their run and never giving out a FA contract over 100 mil and  two extension between 100 mil-150 mil. Thats not only how I expect Elias to proceed but its how I would want to proceed. No contract  ever has a chance of being a  complete albatross



#7 makoman

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:12 AM

The Astros are again the team you can look towards when it comes to spending and generally how Elias will proceed IMO. The Stros largest FA contract is 6/100 to Carlos Lee in 2007. Their biggest extension was to Altuve at 5/151. They let Springer walk. They let Correa walk. They are probably letting Bregman walk though he could return. They traded Tucker and locked up Yordan. They make timely FA dealsthat dont break the bank. Hader for 5 years. Walker for 3 years. Abreu for 3 years. Verlander bigger 2 year deals twice then took him back on in the Mets trade. All of it lead to them being a Top 10 or higher payroll during their run and never giving out a FA contract over 100 mil and  two extension between 100 mil-150 mil. Thats not only how I expect Elias to proceed but its how I would want to proceed. No contract  ever has a chance of being a  complete albatross

I think if we had done anything like this in the past few years there wouldn't be so much angst. A couple extensions, several 2-3 year deals, sure. Exactly one multiyear deal (that we really hope turns into a 1 year deal) is a lot different than that. Maybe Elias thought Luhnow was crazy committing to Altuve for five whole years.



#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:18 AM

A few extensions will get done. You can book it. Now, just like FA, it might not be the guys you want to extend or I want to extend but some will get done. Cowser in my case.  I  believe all the stories of the guys weve had interest in and offers we have made on multi year deals. Hoffman was another that was completed in principle but a bad medical showed up. Some will hold that against Elias too even though the Braves also flagged him. Its not like the Astros are out there signing 3 or 4 guys to these smaller FA contracts every offseason. They seemingly make 1 or 2 mid sized move each offseason. 



#9 ivanbalt

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:22 AM

The Astros are again the team you can look towards when it comes to spending and generally how Elias will proceed IMO. The Stros largest FA contract is 6/100 to Carlos Lee in 2007. Their biggest extension was to Altuve at 5/151. They let Springer walk. They let Correa walk. They are probably letting Bregman walk though he could return. They traded Tucker and locked up Yordan. They make timely FA dealsthat dont break the bank. Hader for 5 years. Walker for 3 years. Abreu for 3 years. Verlander bigger 2 year deals twice then took him back on in the Mets trade. All of it lead to them being a Top 10 or higher payroll during their run and never giving out a FA contract over 100 mil and  two extension between 100 mil-150 mil. Thats not only how I expect Elias to proceed but its how I would want to proceed. No contract  ever has a chance of being a  complete albatross


Elias has done nothing like this so far.  Is he waiting until Henderson's walk year?



#10 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:25 AM


Elias has done nothing like this so far.  Is he waiting until Henderson's walk year?

Henderson aint signing an extension. Everyone knows it. He never was signing one. He will play out his 6 years here like a Correa or Springer or he will be moved like they moved Tucker. On to the next guy that actually has the possibility of being extended. Adley. Cowser. Maybe Westy though he is a Boras guy. Mayo if you like and believe in him.



#11 ivanbalt

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:30 AM

Henderson aint signing an extension. Everyone knows it. He never was signing one. He will play out his 6 years here like a Correa or Springer or he will be moved like they moved Tucker. On to the next guy that actually has the possibility of being extended. Adley. Cowser. Maybe Westy though he is a Boras guy. Mayo if you like and believe in him.


We all know Henderson is gone.  My point is will Elias continue to nickel and dime while there's all this team controlled talent until they eventually leave?



#12 makoman

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:32 AM

Adley and Cowser are the only real options I see right now, and Cowser has 5 years left anyway. It seems like Adley would have happened by now if it was going to. No chance on any pitcher. I suppose Mayo could happen but I'm not even clear when he'll make the team so talk is premature.

 

Westburg would have been the ideal guy IMO, but the Boras angle is rough. Clearly Gunnar is going to go for a Soto deal at this point, but maybe you could do something fair Westburg could agree to. While it's rare, Boras guys do occasionally extend.



#13 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:39 AM


We all know Henderson is gone.  My point is will Elias continue to nickel and dime while there's all this team controlled talent until they eventually leave?

. Offseason isnt over so things can and will change but I believe I saw recently that the Os have one of  the 3 biggest increase in payroll at this point from 2024 to 2025. I know people will point out the increases in arbitration and thats true. We also lost by far our two biggest contracts from 2024 in Burnes and Santander. Again, you dont have to like how the money was spent but there has been over 60 mil added to the 2025 payroll just in this offseason alone. That isnt including the 18 mil that was picked up when he traded for Efflin last offseason or the 8 mil DOminguez option that was picked up when we acquired him



#14 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 10:50 AM

Sugano, Morton and Kittridge are making 37 mil in 2025. Hypothetically lets say we couldve got Burnes to sign a 37 mil AAV contract over 7 or 8 years. If thats how you would've preferred to spend 37 mil on pitching this offseason and had none of the other 3 thats fine. Regardless, it is 37 mil spent on pitching in FA. 

 

 

 

And to beat a dead horse one more time, I still expect 1 more notable pitching addition



#15 weird-O

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 11:04 AM

The Astros are again the team you can look towards when it comes to spending and generally how Elias will proceed IMO. The Stros largest FA contract is 6/100 to Carlos Lee in 2007. Their biggest extension was to Altuve at 5/151. They let Springer walk. They let Correa walk. They are probably letting Bregman walk though he could return. They traded Tucker and locked up Yordan. They make timely FA dealsthat dont break the bank. Hader for 5 years. Walker for 3 years. Abreu for 3 years. Verlander bigger 2 year deals twice then took him back on in the Mets trade. All of it lead to them being a Top 10 or higher payroll during their run and never giving out a FA contract over 100 mil and  two extension between 100 mil-150 mil. Thats not only how I expect Elias to proceed but its how I would want to proceed. No contract  ever has a chance of being a  complete albatross

I'm going to sidestep your individual examples, because I get your broader point, and I agree with you about long term flexibility.

 

The one thing I'll mention is, word around the campfire (down here in Houston) is that Tucker wasn't going to extend. Not that he wouldn't be willing to stay, but he was going to test his market. So they got out ahead of the situation. Smart move, even though the fans are reeling over it. 


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#16 ivanbalt

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 12:13 PM

. Offseason isnt over so things can and will change but I believe I saw recently that the Os have one of  the 3 biggest increase in payroll at this point from 2024 to 2025. I know people will point out the increases in arbitration and thats true. We also lost by far our two biggest contracts from 2024 in Burnes and Santander. Again, you dont have to like how the money was spent but there has been over 60 mil added to the 2025 payroll just in this offseason alone. That isnt including the 18 mil that was picked up when he traded for Efflin last offseason or the 8 mil DOminguez option that was picked up when we acquired him

 

 

Sugano, Morton and Kittridge are making 37 mil in 2025. Hypothetically lets say we couldve got Burnes to sign a 37 mil AAV contract over 7 or 8 years. If thats how you would've preferred to spend 37 mil on pitching this offseason and had none of the other 3 thats fine. Regardless, it is 37 mil spent on pitching in FA. 

 

 

 

And to beat a dead horse one more time, I still expect 1 more notable pitching addition


With the payroll increases, do you feel the 2025 team has a better chance to make it to the WS than the 2024 team at the start of last season?  I do not.

 

Hope you're right about the notable pitcher addition.



#17 Mackus

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 12:22 PM


With the payroll increases, do you feel the 2025 team has a better chance to make it to the WS than the 2024 team at the start of last season? I do not.

Hope you're right about the notable pitcher addition.

I think we're about the same as last year after the Bradish injury.

Burnes and Santander to Eflin and O'Neill is a step back, but think the other additions, return of Felix, and other internal development Im anticipating mean we're about equal to how we ended last season.

My complaint is that we haven't gotten better and plenty of moves to make us better were out there and would've been smart to make. It's a problem of optimization, we're not coming close to that. Missed opportunity (time left blah blah blah).
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#18 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 17 January 2025 - 12:41 PM


With the payroll increases, do you feel the 2025 team has a better chance to make it to the WS than the 2024 team at the start of last season?  I do not.

 

Hope you're right about the notable pitcher addition.

This year will depend a lot on how the core young position players develop and play. Im good with the pitching. In particular, I think the pen is a good bit better on paper heading into '25 vs '24. But if we see the team be sloppy and error prone like they were in the 2nd half of the season that is what could derail a playoff berth. Or big injuries of course.






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