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2024 Game 10: 11/7 Cincinnati 8:15PM


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 November 2024 - 06:02 PM

Cincinnati is 4-5 after their 41-24 win over Las Vegas today.
The Ravens are a 69.1% favorite to win according to ESPN's Match-up Predictor.



#2 cprenegade

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Posted 03 November 2024 - 08:43 PM

69% seems a bit high given that the biggest reason the Ravens won the first meeting was a botched FG snap.  But the Ravens are home on a shortened week so they should be favored.  I'm not sure I would be comfortable laying anything over 3.  Bengals know they can move the ball on the Ravens.  I would expect them to come out pass heavy, maybe even no huddle.  

 

But Cincinnati has been schizophrenic this year.  They had a bad opening day loss to NE, then they played KC basically even losing by a point.  The loss to Washington doesn't look as bad now that we see they are better than expected.  But Philly blew them out in the second half of their game.  They had the Ravens beaten, a late interception forced OT, and a botched snap lost them the game.

 

Never know what to expect with Cincinnati.  They could come to Baltimore and Burrow might torch the secondary for 400 yards and 4 TDs.  Then again, they might turn the ball over a ton of times and get blown out.  You just never know what Cincinnati team you are getting week to week.  But it is a chance to get back to .500 and remain relevant within the division.  A loss could signal the beginning of the end to their season.  



#3 Ravens2006

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Posted 03 November 2024 - 08:49 PM

I expect Cincy will score 30ish. The issue will be can they stop the Ravens from scoring 40ish.

#4 Slidemaster

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Posted 03 November 2024 - 08:50 PM

I expect Cincy will score 30ish. The issue will be can they stop the Ravens from scoring 40ish.


I think they aren't winning without scoring 40+.

#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 November 2024 - 09:35 PM


I think they aren't winning without scoring 40+.

So you are taking the Bengals over 38.5 points scored. Ill happily take the under. I take Venmo.

#6 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 12:41 AM

I think they aren't winning without scoring 40+.


You’re a clown

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

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#7 PrimeTime

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 09:11 AM

The matchup predictor is that much in the Ravens favor because the Bengals can't seem to beat a Lamar Jackson lead team. 


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#8 Slidemaster

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 09:38 AM

You’re a clown

How many did they need the first time they met?

Is the defense better? Are they good at stopping big fast receivers who are known for hitting home runs?

It could go any number of ways but pretending it's a clown take that they need to score 40 or more is just wrong.

#9 hallas

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 11:51 AM

You’re a clown


Also in fairness if they can put up 41 against the broncos they can definitely put up 40+ against the f-ing bengals, their defense is as bad as ours.

#10 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 06:55 PM

How many did they need the first time they met?

Is the defense better? Are they good at stopping big fast receivers who are known for hitting home runs?

It could go any number of ways but pretending it's a clown take that they need to score 40 or more is just wrong.


It’s a clown take. I would guess the Vegas line for the bengals to score 40+ is around 20:1
  • Mackus likes this

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 06:56 PM

Would a clown know if he had a clown take.

#12 cprenegade

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 08:11 PM

The matchup predictor is that much in the Ravens favor because the Bengals can't seem to beat a Lamar Jackson lead team. 

 

I don't put much stock in that.  If that's the case the matchup projector would be that high if Lamar faces Mahomes in the playoffs. I don't think that will be true.  I think it being a short week and in Baltimore has more to do with it.  I still think 69% is too high.  Burrow just had a field day with the Ravens defense and they lost because of a late turnover and botched FG.  I expect the Ravens to win, but I wouldn't put the percentage quite that high.  As long as both QBs stay in the game, I think it will be a high scoring close matchup.  Might come down to which bad defense can get a stop at the right time.  



#13 Mackus

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 08:13 PM

I don't put much stock in that.  If that's the case the matchup projector would be that high if Lamar faces Mahomes in the playoffs. I don't think that will be true.  I think it being a short week and in Baltimore has more to do with it.  I still think 69% is too high.  Burrow just had a field day with the Ravens defense and they lost because of a late turnover and botched FG.  I expect the Ravens to win, but I wouldn't put the percentage quite that high.  As long as both QBs stay in the game, I think it will be a high scoring close matchup.  Might come down to which bad defense can get a stop at the right time.  

 

Feels high to me, too, but 70% is about equivalent percentage to a 6-6.5 point spread.  I haven't tracked it, but anecdotally I often think the ESPN matchup predictor is even higher odds than the point spread suggests.  This seems in line, however.  Think its fair to question both the percent odds and the point spread.



#14 85Knight

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 08:35 PM

You have to give the Ravens a big edge because they just played at home before a Thursday night home game. Short week but they looked out for the Ravens in this one.

On top of that they only had to play 3 qtrs. on Sunday. They couldn't have asked for more going into a short week.

#15 Mackus

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 08:55 PM

You have to give the Ravens a big edge because they just played at home before a Thursday night home game. Short week but they looked out for the Ravens in this one.

On top of that they only had to play 3 qtrs. on Sunday. They couldn't have asked for more going into a short week.

Agree. Only additional benefit would've been if Cincy was on the road, but they were at home so only one flight.

I expect a win, but division game and a solid opponent so never know. Wouldn't take more than a couple weird things for it to flip the other way.

#16 jamesdean

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 08:59 PM

I've always felt the players are over trained and it makes me wonder if they treated all of them to an extra day off during the week, how much efficiency in play would be compromised? It certainly didn't hurt Lamar. But these Thursday games are truly brutal and utterly ridiculous. Hate them with a passion.

#17 BaltBird 24

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Posted 05 November 2024 - 09:14 PM

No worse quality than a Thursday night NFL game. I'll be there because free tickets, but I absolutely hate them. Went to the Thursday night game in Miami couple of years back and it was brutal.

#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 November 2024 - 01:07 PM

Bengals injury report: Orlando Brown Jr. limited with knee/fibula injury

 

Bengals’ Chase Brown is earning his stripes with breakout 2024 campaign



#19 russsnyder

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Posted 06 November 2024 - 06:27 PM

Thursday night games should go the way of the dinosaur. However, the NFL values $ over player safety and the quality of its product.

Of course I'll watch the Ravens.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams

#20 cprenegade

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Posted 06 November 2024 - 07:49 PM

Tee Higgins is most likely out so I think it will be hard for Cincy to win this game.  Obviously they have other talent but their chances of winning pretty much rely on matching the Ravens point for point and hoping for one stop at the end and the ball last.  






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