158 replies to this topic

[CantonJester]

The O’s reached 20 games above .500 on June 9th. They’ve been 40-41 since then. This is who they are. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The O’s reached 20 games above .500 on June 9th. They’ve been 40-41 since then. This is who they are.

Now I can say they have been a .500 team for three months and nobody can dispute it.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Only 2 of the 6 presumed AL playoff teams have been particularly impressive since that date so yeah the Orioles haven't been inspiring for a minute but neither has KC, CLE or NYY haha

[jamesdean]

Only 2 of the 6 presumed AL playoff teams have been particularly impressive since that date so yeah the Orioles haven't been inspiring for a minute but neither has KC, CLE or NYY haha

It's the sport's dream come true.  Parity is the ultimate goal. 

[makoman]

And if you push it back about a week Minnesota goes down to 43-43. They all stink (except Houston I guess). It’s the primary reason to have hope right now.

[CantonJester]

And if you push it back about a week Minnesota goes down to 43-43. They all stink (except Houston I guess). It’s the primary reason to have hope right now.

 

I mean, ymmv but to me it’s more like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ than hope. 

[CantonJester]

Only 2 of the 6 presumed AL playoff teams have been particularly impressive since that date so yeah the Orioles haven't been inspiring for a minute but neither has KC, CLE or NYY haha

 

June 9th is a very O’s-centric date though (first day they reached 20 games above .500). IMO a better query for the AL’s playoff-bound teams would be their records since August 1st. 

 

I can’t filter for only the AL, but if you run it you’ll see the Astros and Tigers are both 21-14, the Yankees and Royals are both two games above .500, the Rangers 1 game over, and the A’s of all teams are .500. The O’s and M’s are 2 below, the Twins are 3 below, and the Red Sox, Rays and Guardians are all 4 below. 

[Mackus]

a better query for the AL’s playoff-bound teams would be their records since August 1st.

Best predictor of postseason record is full season record. Better than Sept record or second half or any other subset of the year.

Still not a good predictor, mind you, but "best". But that's for all teams ever. The O's this year so have a reason to think the second half team isn't as good as the first half team with all the injury attrition to the rotation. Hitting and bullpen don't have similar excuses, they're just struggling mostly of their own accord.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think y'all are missing the rest of the story. I agree that the best indicator, typically, is a teams record over the whole season to account for the ups and downs that invariably occur. But I think a better indicator is to look at a teams record since any major roster changes occurred be it trades or injuries. I think the O's picture there is pretty negative. What's our record since Westburg and Grayson went down?

[makoman]

What's our record since Westburg and Grayson went down?

Does that matter if they’re back for the playoffs?

[jamesdean]

I think y'all are missing the rest of the story. I agree that the best indicator, typically, is a teams record over the whole season to account for the ups and downs that invariably occur. But I think a better indicator is to look at a teams record since any major roster changes occurred be it trades or injuries. I think the O's picture there is pretty negative. What's our record since Westburg and Grayson went down?

17-19 without Westburg and 15-17 since Grayson was put on the shelf.  In other words, about a .500 team. 

[Mackus]

But I think a better indicator is to look at a teams record since any major roster changes occurred be it trades or injuries. I think the O's picture there is pretty negative. What's our record since Westburg and Grayson went down?

 

The Bradish injury is a pretty obvious inflection point.  They were great before, about 500 since.  I thought that with good deadline additions they could get back to a team that was equivalent to the original roster, but they didn't make that kind of an splash at the deadline.

 

They were about 500 before Westburg and Grayson got hurt (since the Bradish injury) and about 500 since.  Those injuries haven't coincided with a big record impact, primarily because the 3B fill-ins have actually been as good or better than Westburg.

 

This is all very rough and not accounting for things like run differential and strength of schedule.  Over short periods those things can be pretty big factors and I don't know how that plays out over the various subsections of the seasons however you wanna define them.

[CantonJester]

The Bradish injury is a pretty obvious inflection point.  They were great before, about 500 since.  I thought that with good deadline additions they could get back to a team that was equivalent to the original roster, but they didn't make that kind of an splash at the deadline.

 

They were about 500 before Westburg and Grayson got hurt (since the Bradish injury) and about 500 since.  Those injuries haven't coincided with a big record impact, primarily because the 3B fill-ins have actually been as good or better than Westburg.

 

This is all very rough and not accounting for things like run differential and strength of schedule.  Over short periods those things can be pretty big factors and I don't know how that plays out over the various subsections of the seasons however you wanna define them.

 

Agree re: the Bradish injury being a huge inflection point (6/14).

 

Westburg is significantly better defensively at 3B than Urias, and an upgrade over what Rivera’s done this year at 3B (Miami and Baltimore stats combined). His WAR outpaces both Urias and Rivera as well. I mean, yeah, they’ve gotten solid offensive production out of 3B in Westburg’s absence, but it’s a downgrade in terms of overall production. Particularly when you’re talking about the # of outs Urias has given away. Rivera’s been a huge add though.

 

Re: SoS? I dunno. You’re perhaps assuming all things are equal, and I don’t think that’s the case at all. The O’s have constantly run into teams with a better grasp of the fundamentals. Earlier this summer they played the Astros who were like 8 games over .500. That team was playing like they were 25 games over. I’m also seeing some fundamentally poor approaches at the plate. Yeah last night O’Hearn came up first pitch swinging after Bello walked a couple guys, but these things happen almost nightly. 

[makoman]

Bradish didn't pitch until May 2nd. Does the 19-11 record before that count as with Bradish, or without?

 

While Bradish is definitely missed, and we would obviously be better with him, I'm not convinced the 500ish record over 3 months is just him. The hitting for some time has been just completely messed up. The fielding has been terrible. Another 10-15 starts from Bradish might have us several games better, but those underlying issues would still be there unless everything is mental (in which case Hyde probably needs to go).

[Mackus]

Yeah I include the time before he (and Means) were back as part of the time when we had him, because he was just on a short IL stint then, not out for the year. It's not just the difference between having him or not, mostly just a milestone, but his loss was perhaps the straw the broke the Orioles. They played well one more time through the rotation then once it was his turn things went downhill. It's either that or the day Gunnar was selected for the HR Derby.

[Nigel Tufnel]

They clearly need to invite Trumbo to be the guest splasher, and then have someone hit him with a pie.

[makoman]

Yeah I include the time before he (and Means) were back as part of the time when we had him, because he was just on a short IL stint then, not out for the year. It's not just the difference between having him or not, mostly just a milestone, but his loss was perhaps the straw the broke the Orioles. They played well one more time through the rotation then once it was his turn things went downhill. It's either that or the day Gunnar was selected for the HR Derby.

Yeah, more than just missing his starts, it does feel like maybe Wells then Means then Bradish may have mentally broke them. Maybe it's all unrelated, but it just feels like a different team than April and May. Not just the record, the sloppiness, the prolonged slumps, untimely meltdowns...I still think it's on the staff to stop that from happening, but I recognize maybe I'm asking the impossible after losing 3 of your expected rotation plus a few BP guys.

[NewMarketSean]

Looking like another WS berth for Houston. YAWN

[85Knight]

This is my biggest problem with Elias. Everything everyone is saying is a factor in why you can't play for next year. Most of these problems didn't surface last year and here we are a year later a complete mess with basically the same team at least potential wise.

I never believe in playing for next year in professional sports when there's an opportunity right in front of you. When Elias traded Lopez and Mancini away when we were like 2 games out of the wildcard I thought it was a bad idea and an indication of things to come. Unfortunately I was right and this slow trigger finger of Elias is blowing opportunity after opportunity that we have had.

This year is not over but if we crash and burn it's time we start taking a hard look at things from that end.