47 replies to this topic

[hallas]

That jump to big league pitching is just crazy. He got in his head in a hurry. He talked after just the first couple games about how fascinated he was at how big league pitchers were attacking him. He will be totally fine. This adversity will serve him well.

This is kind of a tangent but like 4 or 5 years ago they changed AAA to use the major league ball, which has lower seams, and the average OPS in AAA increased by like .050. Before that it was easy to trust hitter performances in Norfolk because it was really hard to hit there. But since then I think it's been difficult to predict hitter performances based on minor league performance.

The flip side to this is that if you can get AAA hitters out as a pitcher then you're probably ready for the majors. And pitchers had some problems adjusting to the majors. But that of course comes at a cost.

[hallas]

That's two.

I eyeballed a list of players that debuted at 20 or earlier since 1950, and there were 30 all star or HOF level players out of 72 total players.

[Ravens2006]

That jump to big league pitching is just crazy. He got in his head in a hurry. He talked after just the first couple games about how fascinated he was at how big league pitchers were attacking him. He will be totally fine. This adversity will serve him well.

Adversity is a good thing if he grows from it. Too many can't handle adversity these days and blame others / become victims. I think he'll grow from it but only time will tell. Kid can't even legally drink for 8 more months, he has time.

Someone who works for the Ironbirds told me he definitely had an air of cockiness about him that stood out. Not one of their favorite personalities ever, albeit in a short time. Take that for what it's worth. Confidence is great, cockiness not as much in my opinion. Point is, plenty of young phenom athletes in all sports have virtually zero adversity and get nothing but accolades while seeing nothing but success their entire lives. Until they hit that point where, uh oh, everyone else here was me (generally) at some point too... and they have more experience at this level than I do... and how they adapt and learn decides their final story.

But again, he's not even 20 AND A HALF yet, so not really concerned for a while...

[dude]

... and they have more experience at this level than I do... and how they adapt and learn ....

 

....this isn't so much at you.

 

....and hmmmm, how should we use a development timeline to mitigate risk in all scenarios?

 

I'll keep saying this.  I don't care.  Do whatever with him.  If you want him to learn at the ML level, great.  If you want to manage risk then you have some standard in terms of experience (that's just PAs) where you have to perform, great.  It's just performance over time and nothing guarantees anything in any direction. 

 

They decided to treat him special with very little justification and nearly everyone (here, locally, nationally) couldn't wait to out-hype the hype train.

 

Cal Ripken isn't a comp for slow starts.  Cal had a season at AA and a season at AAA before his debut.  The contextual parallel would be if Jackson played all of last year at AA and this year at AAA until September.   These are HUGE years in terms of development (physically, mentally, emotionally) and if you want to bypass them, ok, but the range of results can be pretty big.

[dude]

There's only a couple things that matter in the larger context.

 

1) The only guarantee in this entire situation, regardless of performance, is the Service outcome when you want Scott Boras to be your agent.

 

2) Jackson Holliday, regardless of performance, isn't the key to anything.  You have to win before him, with him, without him and after him.

 

3) Holliday's performance isn't indicative of anything and that would be true if he's 2 for 34 or 15 for 34..  I'm not taking laps or anything stupid (I want him to do well) because performance never settles.  Corbin Carroll is OPSing under .600 so far this year.  JRod is at .655.  Acuna has 1 HR and is mediocre (.730....so is, btw, Olson and Riley).   It takes YEARS to get any real performance read and even then it may never be consistent or right.  Careers are made by doing it over and over and over and over and even then it's not necessarily a predictor of the next season.

[bmore_ken]

I eyeballed a list of players that debuted at 20 or earlier since 1950, and there were 30 all star or HOF level players out of 72 total players.

As I said I didn't do the research, so I'll have to take your word for it. 

[BobPhelan]

I posted some research earlier in the thread but 🤷🏼‍♂️

[bmore_ken]

I posted some research earlier in the thread but ‍♂

I saw it Bob and appreciated it. I'm sorry I didn't say something.