57 replies to this topic

[russsnyder]

I mean hes proven to be somewhere between a 2-2.5 WAR player at his peak. Im not sure thats a very solid reg but we would really be picking nits debating what a very solid reg is and where we think he is as a player right now. Regardless, I will be very surprised if hes off the team by the deadline. Hes not going to be waived. There could end up being a match with another contender out there but I just think thats pretty unlikely.

I think Hays has more value to the Orioles right now than other teams. The guy is a decent defender in left and he has a plus arm. He's not a great CFer, but if you have to play him there, you'll get get max effort. He's also a good person to partner with Cowser this year in left IMO.

Cowser has seized the LF job, however, I think Hays will get some ABs against LH pitching and can be inserted into the lineup if and when Cowser cools off/and or slumps. It's a different role for Hays, but I think He'll adjust.

The notion that He'll be off the roster by the ASB is a bit of a head scratcher to me as well. The only way I see him off the roster is if Hays goes on the IL and Mayo replaces him and tears it up. I don't see where Stowers or Kjerstad are in line to replace him because they both hit lefty.

Lastly, Hays is making over 6 million this year. Couple that with his slow start and his trade value has plummeted. You will get very little for him in a trade. I think He'll be here all year.

[Mackus]

Hays is 5/45 with a 311 OPS in 50 PA after ending last season 3/26 with a 349 OPS in 30 PA.  Maybe he forgot how to hit last September, but I think both are/were just Hays-typical cold streaks.

 

In the middle of 2022 he had a 3/42 with a 209 OPS in 44 PA, then an 0/16 later, and another 3/32 with 246 OPS in 33 PA.  In 2021 he had a 4/37 with 364 OPS in 40 PA.

 

In each of those three seasons he ended with an above-average OPS+.  So he has hot streaks to balance out the futility.  I think Cowser's presence is going to take away opportunities for Hays to work through his struggles, but I don't think we're looking at a markedly different player.  Its the same guy. We just now have a better guy.

[BobPhelan]

Hays is 5/45 with a 311 OPS in 50 PA after ending last season 3/26 with a 349 OPS in 30 PA. Maybe he forgot how to hit last September, but I think both are/were just Hays-typical cold streaks.

In the middle of 2022 he had a 3/42 with a 209 OPS in 44 PA, then an 0/16 later, and another 3/32 with 246 OPS in 33 PA. In 2021 he had a 4/37 with 364 OPS in 40 PA.

In each of those three seasons he ended with an above-average OPS+. So he has hot streaks to balance out the futility. I think Cowser's presence is going to take away opportunities for Hays to work through his struggles, but I don't think we're looking at a markedly different player. Its the same guy. We just now have a better guy.

Spot on.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Hays to the IL.

[CantonJester]

Hays to the IL.

 

Kjerstad to replace him. 

[DuffMan]

Kjerstad to replace him. 

It will be interesting to see what happens with Hays if Kjerstad comes up and rakes while he's out.

[BaltBird 24]

Kjerstad probably won't see much PT. I can't see how he'll find ABs with Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn all hitting well. And you probably aren't going to sit Mountcastle against RHP the way he's been hitting.

[Mackus]

Kjerstad probably won't see much PT. I can't see how he'll find ABs with Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn all hitting well. And you probably aren't going to sit Mountcastle against RHP the way he's been hitting.

 

I think he starts at DH tonight to give Mountcastle another day off.

[Mackus]

Kjerstad has 10 homers in 102 PA at Norfolk this year.  Matches his total from 334 PA last season.  Crazy.  Hope he can stay hot up here. 

[BaltBird 24]

Very likely. Give Mountcastle an extra day or two.

[DuffMan]

Kjerstad probably won't see much PT. I can't see how he'll find ABs with Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn all hitting well. And you probably aren't going to sit Mountcastle against RHP the way he's been hitting.

If we are going to call up an OF and limit PT I feel like they would have called up Stowers.  I imagine he will get some AB's

[CantonJester]

Yeah, Kjerstad is up to play. If he hits the ground rolling, you could see the O’s look to move a veteran for some BP help. 

[makoman]

This team really likes platoon matchups, I don’t think they’re going to roll with Santander and the rest of the OFs being LH for a significant time. So I think Hays will be back soon enough and get his fair share of time vs LHP. If he goes for whatever reason later in the year and it’s a longer term thing I think Norby gets a shot. For short term like this IL stint I guess they’re fine with it. Don’t get me wrong I’d probably be fine with Kjerstad being up permanently and seeing how it goes. But next year there will be a lot more space.

[mweb08]

When Mountcastle comes back, I'm not seeing all this playing time that some are envisioning unless he pulls a Cowser and makes it damn near impossible to keep him on the bench.

[BobPhelan]

Kjerstad has 10 homers in 102 PA at Norfolk this year.  Matches his total from 334 PA last season.  Crazy.  Hope he can stay hot up here. 

 

Never had a problem hitting LHP either. He has looked so comfortable at the plate to start the year, I don't expect much drop off.

[CantonJester]

When Mountcastle comes back, I'm not seeing all this playing time that some are envisioning unless he pulls a Cowser and makes it damn near impossible to keep him on the bench.

 

 

Yeah, Kjerstad is up to play. If he hits the ground rolling, you could see the O’s look to move a veteran for some BP help.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

OHearn isnt going anywhere. Nor any of the other "vets". Hays, Mateo, Urias. Only a contender might want these guys but reliable BP arm is more valuable. Is it absoluletly impossible no but its so unlikely. Any real BP help we get will be at the cost of prospects. Lets put it this way, its more likely Kjerstad is moved in a deal for a very good arm then any of these "vets".

[CantonJester]

OHearn isnt going anywhere. Nor any of the other "vets". Hays, Mateo, Urias. Only a contender might want these guys but reliable BP arm is more valuable. Is it absoluletly impossible no but its so unlikely. Any real BP help we get will be at the cost of prospects. Lets put it this way, its more likely Kjerstad is moved in a deal for a very good arm then any of these "vets".

 

I never said it wouldn't involve prospects. Though I highly doubt the O's would flip Kjerstad for a BP arm because of the perceived value of relief pitching. 

 

Lastly the O's have a loaded farm system and could absolutely require a team to take a player off their roster to make it work.