25 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We are scheduled to face multiple lefties early in the year and I can in good faith argue that I dont think Jackson is our best 2b option vs LHP. Of course, over the 3 or 4 weeks that he needs to be held down we will see more RHP but still its another small thing. Its not that I dont think Jackson is our best 2b option. I said I believed he was a week or so ago in the ST thread. Its all the little things that add up to it not being imperative that he is here the first month or so. Things that have been laid out numerous times by those of us that prefer to delay his promotion.

[dude]

First things first, I agree that Boras doesn't care about what goes on in Baltimore. He is interested in landing his guys the biggest deal possible and that is all. My point was more that given how this offseason has played, the biggest deal might end up being the one some of these guys get offered before they hit free agency. We've seen a hand full of players test the market only to take short-term offers in an attempt to hit the market again next year. Clearly the grass isn't always greener, and whether or not he wants to admit it, Boras is going to have to take into account how horribly his clients did this year when he's entering future negotiations. 

 

How would you know what your biggest deal was before you saw what you were offered in FA?  Boras only wants you to present a number because he'll leak that number as a start point for the future.  If those guys want to stay in Baltimore for any period of time beyond Service Rules, then they should tell their agent to go figure something out.  More thoughts on this, but leaving it for now...

 

Boras doesn't have to take account for anything.  Boras has been  getting his ass handed to him (expectations versus results) going back to Ryan Madson EXCEPT for the year or so before CBA negotiations.  Suddenly, Teams care less about what he asks for and just roll over....geee... I wonder why.  For whatever reason, Boras has some perception of power and we could talk a lot more about it....but whenever he's getting crushed (go back to Morales and Drew) he fights back that the "system" is flawed....because he can't be wrong....and the System must be changed.

 

While Boras won't take account for anything, do you think other players are looking around and believing the claims less (in FA) or looking at his younger players that some might perceive aren't getting promoted as quickly as they might?  Guys that think the system isn't treating the stable well might hang on...but there's always a wave of guys and they certainly have their own early choices.

[dude]

I also disagree with the sentiment that leverage is the only thing that can get a contract extension done. It is certainly a factor, but there's something to be said for stability and the enjoyment you get from playing the game. If these guys love playing in Baltimore, I refuse to believe they won't at least consider sticking around. Furthermore, under the new ownership group there is no reason the Orioles shouldn't be able to compete with just about any other team financially. Rubenstein is now one of the wealthiest owners in baseball and I'm optimistic that payroll will start to reflect it. 

 

Again, you have something of a timing challenge in your thoughts.  You can't argue for extensions (pre-FA) and FA.  

 

I don't think Rubenstein is uniquely wealthy in the ownership landscape of MLB.  I agree they can/will be WAY different than we've been accustomed too....but they aren't going Steve Cohen here....and honestly, they shouldn't.

 

I said this in the other thread, pursue the guys that want to be here for something other than the biggest check. 

[dude]

To respond to your other point, no, I don't think Holliday would've been the utility man. He would've been the starting second baseman and would've relegated to Urias to the utility role (which he is well suited for). It's not a one for one swap with Nevin in terms of playing time but the overall effect is the same. Holliday's playing time goes to Urias and Urias' playing time goes to Nevin/Mateo. Just not the kind of trade off I want to see from a team in "win now" mode.

 

Fair enough, I was just tracking what you wrote.  I kind of assumed you would actually say "starting 2B" but wanted to make sure.

 

So....understanding that any result is possible, what is your reasonable assessment of his performance line in 2024?

[BSLLukeRollfinke]

Fair enough, I was just tracking what you wrote.  I kind of assumed you would actually say "starting 2B" but wanted to make sure.

 

So....understanding that any result is possible, what is your reasonable assessment of his performance line in 2024?

Overall I don't think our opinions are all that different. I agree that the Orioles should target the players who want to stick around for the biggest check and not those who are only interested in money. My point is just that I think given the state of the market and the state of the organization, more of these players might fit that mold than we originally anticipated. Sure, it's unlikely that both Gunnar and Jackson will be around for the next decade, but who is to say one of them won't? Rubenstein has the facilities to make a "competitive" offer and I think that should be enough for Adley and at least one of the infielders when push comes to shove.

 

As to my assessment of his performance line, I think Holliday has the potential to put up as good of a rookie season as Gunnar (if not better). Gunnar was arguably the worst player on the roster throughout April and May and still posted a 6.2 rWar season. He got to work through his struggles at the major league level and by June he was ready to take off and help the team pursue a division title. Holliday has just as much if not more hype surrounding him than Gunnar did at this point last year, and while some of that may be due to his last name, just as much is due to the fact that he has cruised through the minor leagues faster than anyone I can personally recall in my lifetime. There's no reason to think that if he was on the opening day roster, he wouldn't already be a top 15 second baseman in the league and by the summer, I think he would have cemented himself in the top ten if not higher. Obviously he could come up and struggle like GRod did and then I guess I'd be proven incorrect. That being said, even in that world I think it's better for him to get a taste of the highest level and figure out what he needs to work on than to continue beating up on minor league pitching. I think regardless of what his final batting line reads, a "positive" rookie season would see him accumulate 3-4 WAR to help the team win now while also becoming fully comfortable facing the highest level of competition so that he can contribute even more down the road. The longer he is in Triple-A, the harder it will be to make that happen. 

[85Knight]

Yes, it does when your argument is "they never do this", which is what you typed (actually "everything they've done").

Before that trade, I'd agree, every move of consequence was future based. Even the trades for Fuji and Flaherty, while paying for rentals, were not even really the bear minimum type of move that could be considered focusing on the present.

Burnes clearly is something different. They paid a massive future price for today. The argument that every move they make is future based is invalid. Whether they continue to push on prioritizing the present over the future remains to be seen, it's a tough thing to balance. Demoting Holliday for a month isn't all that big of a clapback towards the future. You're not sacrificing much present at all to run Urias out there for 3 weeks and the potential future value is immense.

Its downright ludicrous to say trading Ortiz, Hall and a 1st round pick isn't sacrificing anything for the future. We're not having a good faith conversation if that's something you're seriously going to support.

There was no room for Ortiz here. Hall may or may not become a good pitcher but so far he hasn't become an impact player at the major league level. That first round pick will likely be a late first round pick. Not as big a deal in baseball as it would be in football. I agree that this was their first significant "win now" move but I don't think what we gave up has any major impact on this team's future. I'd say it was a very good deal on our part.

The more relevant point though was that most fans had been clamoring for a TOR starter for several years but this organization is hell bent on moving at their own slow methodical pace. How many trade deadlines and off seasons have passed where we expected significant moves to be made but nothing happened? They deserve all the credit for raising this franchise from the abyss but I think the pace that they move and the constant focus on longterm goals can be a little frustrating.