11 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ravens.com: Pundit Says Extending Justin Madubuike Should Be Priority, But Franchise Tag Might Be Inevitable

https://www.baltimor...ree-agency-news

[hallas]

I know I've come in saying that I'm not sure I'd franchise Madubuike, but with the cap coming in more than 10 million higher than expected, the tag seems inevitable.  

[Mackus]

I know I've come in saying that I'm not sure I'd franchise Madubuike, but with the cap coming in more than 10 million higher than expected, the tag seems inevitable.

Cap being higher will raise the estimated tag a bit as well. Should just be a fraction of a million, not enough to change the decision much.

The tag numbers (at least for the non-exclusive version) aren't actually the average of top 5 salaries, rather it's the past 5 tag numbers divided by past 5 cap totals to get a ratio, and then that ratio is multiplied by the 2024 cap.

But agree that its inevitable. I'd be more surprised by them letting him walk than by an extension, but tagging him is by far the most likely outcome IMO.

[hallas]

Cap being higher will raise the estimated tag a bit as well. Should just be a fraction of a million, not enough to change the decision much.

The tag numbers (at least for the non-exclusive version) aren't actually the average of top 5 salaries, rather it's the past 5 tag numbers divided by past 5 cap totals to get a ratio, and then that ratio is multiplied by the 2024 cap.

But agree that its inevitable. I'd be more surprised by them letting him walk than by an extension, but tagging him is by far the most likely outcome IMO.

His tag is ~22m but still a smaller difference than the increased cap amount.


https://twitter.com/...ulhYBYwhqg&s=19

[bmore_ken]

TBH I realize I'm in the minority with my opinion(what else is new?), I don't think the world ends if he goes elsewhere. Prior to this year, he had 8 sacks in 3 seasons. Are we gambling 13 sacks is his new normal for $22M? Is the defense hopeless without him? The cap increase gets the team more leeway, but we have a ton of possible guys to resign. Then we're back in the same situation next season unless they can work out an extension. I would be ok either way, I just think that $22M would go further with more players. 

[jamesdean]

TBH I realize I'm in the minority with my opinion(what else is new?), I don't think the world ends if he goes elsewhere. Prior to this year, he had 8 sacks in 3 seasons. Are we gambling 13 sacks is his new normal for $22M? Is the defense hopeless without him? The cap increase gets the team more leeway, but we have a ton of possible guys to resign. Then we're back in the same situation next season unless they can work out an extension. I would be ok either way, I just think that $22M would go further with more players. 

My guess is they'll tag him, see if he can come back and reproduce another great season and if he does, extend him.  I agree it's a bit premature to think his 13 sacks are going to be the norm for him.  But for an interior lineman to pull that off, it's hard to be cavalier about him going elsewhere.  Those kind of stats don't come along very often. 

[hallas]

TBH I realize I'm in the minority with my opinion(what else is new?), I don't think the world ends if he goes elsewhere. Prior to this year, he had 8 sacks in 3 seasons. Are we gambling 13 sacks is his new normal for $22M? Is the defense hopeless without him? The cap increase gets the team more leeway, but we have a ton of possible guys to resign. Then we're back in the same situation next season unless they can work out an extension. I would be ok either way, I just think that $22M would go further with more players. 

 

If you buy the adage that you should buy pressures, then there's some solid evidence that some of his improvement is real.  His pressure rate went from 7.8% to 12.5%.

 

You've got at least 1 person that agrees with you here though, I'm not thrilled about his cap hit and I'm definitely not thrilled about extending him for more than 20m a year.  Maybe we can tag and trade?  Surely someone is willing to give up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for him?

[mdrunning]

Every player agent is going to see these increased cap numbers and up their contract demands accordingly. The increase in available money is going to be offset by salaries keeping pace. Even with the increase in cap space, the money is going to go very quickly for teams that need to sign players.

 

It might make better sense for the Ravens to tag Madubuike in order to keep him off the market. All it would take is one GM with a lot of positions to fill and money burning a hole in his pocket to make him an offer he couldn't refuse.

[bmore_ken]

My guess is they'll tag him, see if he can come back and reproduce another great season and if he does, extend him.  I agree it's a bit premature to think his 13 sacks are going to be the norm for him.  But for an interior lineman to pull that off, it's hard to be cavalier about him going elsewhere.  Those kind of stats don't come along very often. 

I agree with that. But how much of that was Queen and Roquan being the beasts they've become?

[Mackus]

They did indeed tag Madubuike.  

 

Josh Allen and Brian Burns are Edge that got tagged for $24M.  Madubuike is DT for $22.1M.  Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman at WR for $21.8M.  L'Jarious Snead and Jaylon Johnson at CB for $19.8M and Antoine Winfield at S for $17.1M. 

 

S Kyle Duggar got the transition tag for $13.8M.  Transition tag is roughly the average of the top-10 salaries, there is no compensation if another team signs a transition tag player, but the original team can match any offer sheet.

[cprenegade]

I could go either way with the tag.  

 

On one hand this could have been an outlier career year for Madubuike.  Or it may have been MacDonald worked magic and put him in the best of positions.  If so, then $22 million is a lot to pay for what might be mediocre production next year.  

 

On the other hand, if they work out a deal with him and he reverts back to prior years production, they will be stuck the same way they are with Stanley.  But if he proves it wasn't a fluke on the tag, then they can sign him to a long term deal with a little more confidence he will live up to the contract.

 

I didn't think it was a deal breaker if he walked, but they would have to replace him in the draft most likely and they have other needs that take priority in the draft.  I thought a case could be made for either decision.  

[Mike in STL]

I could go either way with the tag.  

 

On one hand this could have been an outlier career year for Madubuike.  Or it may have been MacDonald worked magic and put him in the best of positions.  If so, then $22 million is a lot to pay for what might be mediocre production next year.  

 

On the other hand, if they work out a deal with him and he reverts back to prior years production, they will be stuck the same way they are with Stanley.  But if he proves it wasn't a fluke on the tag, then they can sign him to a long term deal with a little more confidence he will live up to the contract.

 

I didn't think it was a deal breaker if he walked, but they would have to replace him in the draft most likely and they have other needs that take priority in the draft.  I thought a case could be made for either decision.  

It also buys them time to work out a long-term extension which would lower that current $22M cap hit.

 

I don't think it was a fluke. At that position its about technique and brute strength. Things you don't just lose the next year, kind of like O-line. It's really rare that a great O-lineman just stops being great the next year. Unless you get lazy, nagging injury we don't know about. Being able to generate pressure with four guys instead of having to send the house is valuable. Feel like they were able to win with four a lot more often than they did under Wink, who sometimes they couldn't even win with sending eight.