12 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Banner: Orioles move up 2 spots in first round of 2024 MLB Draft

[RichardZ]

3 of the first 34 picks. Draft night should be fun.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MLB.com: Here's Pipeline's first full 2024 mock draft

[dude]

MLB.com: Here's Pipeline's first full 2024 mock draft

 

Someone bring this comment up later, but I'll bet 4 of the top 10 guys in this first mock are available when the Orioles pick 22.

 

read these writeups and everyone looks good.  Then you get a small sample size against uneven competition for young players dealing with being young humans in an imperfect coaching world and we think that couple months makes all the difference.

 

The Orioles will have a chance to draft good players, just like they drafted good players in each of the previous seasons, in and outside of the first round. 

 

Who to target and how to develop will always trump draft position...and it's all statistically difficult.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Someone bring this comment up later, but I'll bet 4 of the top 10 guys in this first mock are available when the Orioles pick 22.

 

read these writeups and everyone looks good.  Then you get a small sample size against uneven competition for young players dealing with being young humans in an imperfect coaching world and we think that couple months makes all the difference.

 

The Orioles will have a chance to draft good players, just like they drafted good players in each of the previous seasons, in and outside of the first round. 

 

Who to target and how to develop will always trump draft position...and it's all statistically difficult.

Any given team has whatever ability they have to scout and develop players. So drafting 5 vs 25 is an advantage. 

 

Team A drafts whomever they feel is the best player at 5. The have a better shot at developing that player into a everyday MLB player than the same team drafting whomever the feel is the best player at 25. Their scouting and development didn't all of a sudden improve when they were waiting to draft at 25.

[dude]

Any given team has whatever ability they have to scout and develop players. So drafting 5 vs 25 is an advantage. 

 

Team A drafts whomever they feel is the best player at 5. The have a better shot at developing that player into a everyday MLB player than the same team drafting whomever the feel is the best player at 25. Their scouting and development didn't all of a sudden improve when they were waiting to draft at 25.

 

I have a response, but I'm sure if you actually wanted to discuss this.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This isn't rocket science. I fully understand that its a crapshoot and lots (most) guys don't pan out or reach their expectations. Just like some surprise the heck out of you.

 

But this is simple. Ask every GM in the game one question. No caveats. No detailed explanations.

 

Do you prefer to draft #5 or #25?

[Mackus]

I prefer to pick 25th because it means my team wasn't a nightmare the prior season. And Franky the difference in expected value between 5th and 25th isn't enormous.

Make the question 1st and 5th and I'll agree it's better to lose more. But make it just about any other combo beyond that first pick and I'll take the better team with worse draft position every time.

I think most folks dramatically inflate the difference in 5-10 spots of draft position. It is not significant once you're past the first pick and to a much lesser extent, the second. Anything in the middle to back half of first round is about the same.

[dude]

Do you prefer to draft #5 or #25?

 

If you want the question in a vacuum, the answer is 5th.  Nobody, including MLB and the associated rules, lives in a vacuum.

 

I like Mackus answer best because, he's right, I'd rather be getting knocked out in the 2nd round of the Playoffs than muddling along in another meaningless season.  Draft 5th every year and you're never any good.  Release Holliday, Cowser and Kjerstand and the Orioles future is no less bright.  We just won 101 games, run it back.

 

....but that's not really the point of my comment. 

Apologies to the couple posters whose education has failed them inside of 50 words.

 

We have mock drafts today and there's super interesting writeups in the first 10 or more guys.  The extremely small sample size of this coming spring will move guys all over the place based on perceptions of that small sample.  They'll gather everything they can (data) but the reality is you don't have any idea who is going to transition well or why.  A bunch of the guys we read interesting profiles as top10 today will fall to the Orioles at 22.

 

It's actually the reasons Mike Elias has the draft profile he has, because he thinks it's the only way to manage risk.  He's looking for history and volume against better competition with better coaching and some of the advanced stuff.  It's better information.  It's risk management. 

 

....but while we can say it's better to draft 5th than 25th, the reality is that you're going to follow very small trends to 1-5 and the Talent we think today could be top 10 with be available top 20 or top 30.

 

Again, your ability to assess, acquire and develop Talent will trump draft position 100% of the time.

 

I don't want to draft 25th.  I want to draft 30th, which means I won the WS and I never sign a compensated FA.

 

Doesn't effect my ability to build a quality pipeline of Talent because I'll still do it.  Other thread, the Rays are losing former 1-1, HoF level Talent signed for 200+M and they always draft 20-30 and their future infield is their top 5.

 

If you want to win for a long time, it's never about your start point.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I prefer to pick 25th because it means my team wasn't a nightmare the prior season. And Franky the difference in expected value between 5th and 25th isn't enormous.

Make the question 1st and 5th and I'll agree it's better to lose more. But make it just about any other combo beyond that first pick and I'll take the better team with worse draft position every time.

I think most folks dramatically inflate the difference in 5-10 spots of draft position. It is not significant once you're past the first pick and to a much lesser extent, the second. Anything in the middle to back half of first round is about the same.

Dont disagree with what you said except that the difference between 5 and 25 is 20 spots not 5-10. And you and Dude are still making judgements based on long term data. I get that and its not wrong. 

 

But that does not change the simple fact that today, one pick, 5 has a higher potential than 25.

[dude]

But that does not change the simple fact that today, one pick, 5 has a higher potential than 25.

 

...but who cares.  You're trying to push back on something I wrote, but what I wrote is still true.  Your ability to build a Talent pipeline for your professional baseball team isn't tied to your draft position.  Your ability to assess, acquire (draft, other) and develop Talent is what drives your pipeline.

 

Drafting 5th or 25th or 30th doesn't drive it.  Ask the WhiteSox.  Redraft the 2019 draft class (that's a good exercise discussed here in the past)...how does that shake out?  The Orioles drafted Gunner Henderson at 2-42. How many teams want to look back with 20/20 hindsight and make a different selection?  Maybe not the DBacks, they got Corbin Carroll at 1-16....but the Braves nabbed MHII at 3-98.

 

It's not a crapshoot in the sense that it's random.  It's a crapshoot because the information you need to make "the best" selections doesn't exist yet. ...and bringing it back to my comments here, a handful of the guys that look great in today's mock will slide around the board for a variety of reasons and the most important thing will be the Talent you add AND your ability to develop it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Updating the 2024 Draft Rankings

[RichardZ]

I like Cam Smith, 3B Florida. Good glove at 3B and power potential. Might not be available at #22 if he breaks out but ranked past our slot on most draft lists right now.