7 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Which Teams Are Best Built for Postseason Success?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Wow they really don't like the O's in the post season. Well just screw them. Go show the idiots that their methodology is dumb.....lol....

 

What I'd like to see if Fangraphs to take the rosters they used for this evaluation and then look at how teams faired against each other during the regular season.

 

Example, they like the playoff rotation of Team X better than the O's. But show me how those two teams did against each other during the regular season with those same pitchers.

 

I don't believe that the difference between the regular season vs the playoffs structure wise is great enough to explain how the O's are the best team in the AL over 162 games yet their projected as only 6th best in the AL during the playoffs. 

 

Dont buy this. Something is wrong with their methodology.

[hallas]

Wow they really don't like the O's in the post season. Well just screw them. Go show the idiots that their methodology is dumb.....lol....

What I'd like to see if Fangraphs to take the rosters they used for this evaluation and then look at how teams faired against each other during the regular season.

Example, they like the playoff rotation of Team X better than the O's. But show me how those two teams did against each other during the regular season with those same pitchers.

I don't believe that the difference between the regular season vs the playoffs structure wise is great enough to explain how the O's are the best team in the AL over 162 games yet their projected as only 6th best in the AL during the playoffs.

Dont buy this. Something is wrong with their methodology.

Well, Fangraphs doesn't think we're the best team in the AL during the regular season either. They think we've scored more runs than we should have due to fortunate hit sequencing.

[85Knight]

I think they're underrating our starting pitching. If Means is truly back to form our top 3 are as good as any in the AL. Kremer with 12 wins and Gibson with 15 have not been liabilities as back of the rotation starters. We are 5th in the AL in quality starts just a game or 2 behind Houston and Toronto. I don’t think teams win 100 games with bad starting pitching across the board. Even if they want to argue that our starters don't have much playoff experience I don't think that's enough to rank us that low.

[hallas]

I think they're underrating our starting pitching. If Means is truly back to form our top 3 are as good as any in the AL. Kremer with 12 wins and Gibson with 15 have not been liabilities as back of the rotation starters. We are 5th in the AL in quality starts just a game or 2 behind Houston and Toronto. I don’t think teams win 100 games with bad starting pitching across the board. Even if they want to argue that our starters don't have much playoff experience I don't think that's enough to rank us that low.

I guess it really depends how sold you are on Bradish and Rodriguez. Fangraphs computer is high on Rodriguez (relatively spealing) but not on the level of ace, to the point that it would improve our playoff games. Teams like Seattle or Atlanta, that can have Spencer Strider start 40% of your team's playoff games, they are going to get a nice bump in the playoffs because of the format.

For me I'd probably agree that our 1-2 is solid enough. But not having Bautista is a real bummer.

[85Knight]

I guess it really depends how sold you are on Bradish and Rodriguez. Fangraphs computer is high on Rodriguez (relatively spealing) but not on the level of ace, to the point that it would improve our playoff games. Teams like Seattle or Atlanta, that can have Spencer Strider start 40% of your team's playoff games, they are going to get a nice bump in the playoffs because of the format.

For me I'd probably agree that our 1-2 is solid enough. But not having Bautista is a real bummer.

Yeah with Bautista I can't see how we wouldn't be the favorites in the AL. We have an excellent record against all the other playoff contenders. My fingers are still crossed on his miracle return.

[ivanbalt]

Wow they really don't like the O's in the post season. Well just screw them. Go show the idiots that their methodology is dumb.....lol....

 

What I'd like to see if Fangraphs to take the rosters they used for this evaluation and then look at how teams faired against each other during the regular season.

 

Example, they like the playoff rotation of Team X better than the O's. But show me how those two teams did against each other during the regular season with those same pitchers.

 

I don't believe that the difference between the regular season vs the playoffs structure wise is great enough to explain how the O's are the best team in the AL over 162 games yet their projected as only 6th best in the AL during the playoffs. 

 

Dont buy this. Something is wrong with their methodology.

Fangraphs is always wrong about the Orioles.  2012-2016 were completely wrong.  This year predicted 80 wins.  And they were completely wrong about the high dollar teams.

[hallas]

Fangraphs is always wrong about the Orioles.  2012-2016 were completely wrong.  This year predicted 80 wins.  And they were completely wrong about the high dollar teams.

 

To be fair, Ben Clemens is pretty much the only analyst, anywhere, that predicted the O's to win the division in the preseason.

 

I really don't know what the secret sauce was between 2012-2016.  It worked and it felt repeatble, but it also felt like voodoo magic.  I guess defense, home runs, and finding a way to get consistent quality out of the bullpen?