78 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

Something's way off with KenPom sometimes. The Strength of schedule numbers for example. How has Gonzaga had the 44th ranked SOS and Saint Mary's 77th and Maryland just 53rd? Are you kidding me? The WCC is just awful. I watch all the conferences now thanks to sports betting, and that just doesn't add up to me at all.

 

Seeing teams in god awful conferences get higher seedings than Maryland with the teams they've beaten is just ridiculous. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

SOS isnt even a KenPom thing is it? Not arguing the overall point though. Could the bottom feeders of the WCC beat Nebraska and Minn on a neutral court. I wouldnt automatically bet against it thats for sure

[You Play to Win the Game]

They have their own SOS formula I believe. Whatever it is, it’s flawed. Getting to play Pepperdine, Pacific, San Diego, Santa Clara, Portland, Loyola Marymount, San Francisco, even BYU in conference is a total joke and disqualifying in terms of having a top 80 SOS. Maryland also had a tough OOC schedule this year. It just doesn’t add up. I don’t care what the metrics say, Nebraska and even Minnnesota would run those teams I just listed.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Gonzaga’s OOC was ridic, so there’s I can quasi understand. Their conference schedule should’ve knocked them below MD at least.

[hallas]

Gonzaga’s OOC was ridic, so there’s I can quasi understand. Their conference schedule should’ve knocked them below MD at least.

 

Maryland's OOC is really hit or miss and I guess they don't weight games.  We have UCLA, Tennessee, Miami as our big OOC games (and they're all good adds on the schedule) and then we have Saint Louis, who dropped out of the Kenpom top 100, and then after that we have 7 games against teams ranked no higher than 249.

 

I think that Louisville having an epic implosion had a pretty big effect on our SOS.  They're ranked 284.  Assuming my back of napkin math adds up right, if they're a top-50 or top-75 team like they're supposed to be, it looks like our NCSOS ranking would jump like 70 places into the low 200s.

 

it would be nice if we got some buy games against slightly higher quality opponents.  But it's really hard to predict when a team is going to be better.  Maybe next year we can try to get a game against Towson?  They've been better than 200 the past couple years and their coach has gotten them over 20 wins a decent number of seasons.

 

But to be honest, when the skill gap is as big as it is between a competitive high-major program and a minor conference program, it doesn't really matter other than for the sake of computer simulations that you scheduled a 170-ranked program or a 300-ranked program.  In both cases you should be winning by a lot.  So on some level, strength of schedule that weights all games equally is somewhat deceiving.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Something's way off with KenPom sometimes. The Strength of schedule numbers for example. How has Gonzaga had the 44th ranked SOS and Saint Mary's 77th and Maryland just 53rd? Are you kidding me? The WCC is just awful. I watch all the conferences now thanks to sports betting, and that just doesn't add up to me at all.

 

Seeing teams in god awful conferences get higher seedings than Maryland with the teams they've beaten is just ridiculous. 

 

Gonzaga played Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Xavier, Baylor, Washington, and Alabama in their OOC.  

Didn't look at each, but several neutral or road games.   That's the difference vs. Saint Mary's... 

 

WCC isn't horrible...  it's like 8th overall amongst conferences right now.   

[BSLRoseKatz]

Maryland opponents sorted by Kenpom rank on the left, Gonzaga opponents by Kenpom rank on the right

[BSLRoseKatz]

Maryland's raw total avg opponent rank is 111, Gonzaga's is 108.4 but how it's weighted for H vs R vs N, idk

[You Play to Win the Game]

Nice. Is this how they are weighted now, or where the opponent ranked at the time of the contest?

[BSLRoseKatz]

Nice. Is this how they are weighted now, or where the opponent ranked at the time of the contest?

Current rankings, Saint Mary's was #47 after their first game if I'm understanding the website correctly

[hallas]

Nice. Is this how they are weighted now, or where the opponent ranked at the time of the contest?

 

I believe they average your opponents' AdjEM.  Coppin has -16 adjusted EM, while Chicago state is -9.  

 

This is spitballing, but if Kenpom treats the Eastern Oregon game as a no-contest then it kind of helps their SOS.  From some quick googling they're a mid-tier NAIA team, and while the best NAIA teams are comparable to a low-major like Coppin State or Binghamton, that team is not one of them.  Without counting that game, their worst counted opposing SOS is -9 in adjusted EM, the same as Louisville, while Maryland has 2 teams in the -12 range and 1 team at -16.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Terps currently an 8 seed drawing Arkansas in their first game - in the same bracket with Houston, Baylor, Tennessee, UConn and Iowa St.

[glenn__davis]

Not sure where they'll end up but it would really be nice to stay away from that 8/9 game.  Would much rather be a 10.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Terps now a #9 seed, according to Lunardi’s latest which was released over night.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Aggregate 8/9 seeds on Bracket Matrix they could see 

 

FAU, Arkansas, WVU, Memphis, Auburn

[You Play to Win the Game]

WVU would be the nightmare scenario IMO.

[BSLZackKiesel]

Aggregate 8/9 seeds on Bracket Matrix they could see

FAU, Arkansas, WVU, Memphis, Auburn

They have Auburn as a projected 10 seed now. Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State all 9 seeds.

Assuming the committee avoids the conference matchup, Maryland would see WVU in their scenario.

[BSLZackKiesel]

Maryland an 8-seed in Alabama's bracket, facing 9-seed West Virginia on Thursday.

 

KenPom Rankings

• Maryland: #22 (#35 AdjO, #33 AdjD; #312 AdjT)
• West Virginia: #17 (#15 AdjO, #52 AdjD; #104 AdjT)

[You Play to Win the Game]

They’re not beating West Virginia IMO. Damn. Brutal draw, but they did it to themselves by going 3-4 in their last 7. WVU 17th in KenPom with the 15th offense and 52nd defense, and plenty battle tested in a brutal Big 12 this year. Couldn’t have asked for a worse draw at this position IMO.

Bottom line, grateful to be dancing. Proud of them.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Even if they do beat WVU, which is definitely possible, they get top seeded Alabama in the round of 32. Damn.