36 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

BSL: https://baltimorespo...dont-be-fooled/

 

Five thoughts on todays game. 

 

Don't be fooled by score. It wasn't close. 

 

Don't be fooled by Harbaugh's lip service on going for two. The risk didn't outweigh the reward. 

 

Hoping for the best regarding Lamar. 

 

Huntley is servicable.

 

Bateman is out of the dog house. 

[Ravens2006]

Last time I'm going to dive in to the issue but the "take the XP and make it a one possession game" standpoint is sort of only reality IF THEY MAKE THE TWO POINT conversion on that "one possession". 

 

When you're already down just 7, that's a legit one possession game because the XP is so VERY high percentage.  It's like a 98-99% certain one possession deficit.  7 is almost automatic, guaranteed once you get the first 6.

 

Down 8, that's more of a 50/50... might be a one possession game, might not.  That's where the decision has some merit in my opinion.

 

And I say none of this as a big Harbaugh fan...

 

If they don't convert the two later, then it's basically back to having been a "two possession" game all along (while you might have been playing it as a single).  And then you still have to bring the onside kick in to play anyway.  Either way you go, if you don't convert the two "early" or "later"... that onside kick is going to be required.  Not sure if there's some glaring trend that two point tries work significantly less outside of the two minute warning than they do later in the game. 

 

The easy answer is... convert the two more often (no matter when) and it's a moot point.

[85Knight]

The fact that they thought going for 2 right there sticks in my craw. This coaching staff or analytics team frustrate the hell out of me when it comes to these decisions. With 9 minutes left you make it a one score game no questions asked. Getting 2 at the end of the game is no tougher than getting it with 9 minutes left but risking making it a 2 score game is just not worth it. I'd much rather lose the game going for 2 at the end than with 9 minutes left.

[PrimeTime]

Putting aside the debate of when and where to go for 2, here's my issue...

If you're going to go for 2, why would you bootleg right and eliminate 75% of the field as an option? Our 2 point conversion attempt play options are woefully lacking.

[Mackus]

When you're down 15 with enough time left that you don't have to immediately onsides kick after the touchdown, I'd always go for two after the first score and not wait until the second.

 

If you miss it the first time, you're down 9 with several minutes left.  There are more paths to victory in front of you.

If you miss it the second time, you're down 2 with moments left and you have no way to win aside from recovering an onsides kick.

 

The "keep it a 1-possession game as long as possible" alternative assumes success of the conversion.  But I'd go for it earlier so I know what's in front of me sooner and, if the outcome isn't what I'm hoping for, I have time left to do something about it.

[You Play to Win the Game]

When you're down 15 with enough time left that you don't have to immediately onsides kick after the touchdown, I'd always go for two after the first score and not wait until the second.

If you miss it the first time, you're down 9 with several minutes left. There are more paths to victory in front of you.
If you miss it the second time, you're down 2 with moments left and you have no way to win aside from recovering on onsides kick.

The "keep it a 1-possession game as long as possible" alternative assumes success of the conversion. But I'd go for it earlier so I know what's in front of me sooner and, if the outcome isn't what I'm hoping for, I have time left to do something about it.

Yeah, this is a very different debate than last week in that you had to go for 2 at some point either way. So the decision was more when, not if. You’ve changed my mind on this.

They still suck at 2 point tries.

[Mackus]

The strongest argument for kicking it the first time would be if you can somehow explain that you think you would have a higher chance of converting the 2 point conversion later than you do the first time.  Momentum, exhaustion, simply a better play in mind after whatever drive got you the TD.  I'm not sure I'll agree that there is a combination that makes it so much more likely the second time than the first, but that would be the strongest argument for kicking first and attempting the conversion as a last resort. 

[Ravens2006]

Yeah, it boils down to the fact that if you don't make the two point conversion (earlier or later) you still need an extra possession to try to overcome that. The "make it a one possession game" theory sort of inherently assumes you WILL succeed on what's basically a coin flip play statistically.

[Mike in STL]

When you're down 15 with enough time left that you don't have to immediately onsides kick after the touchdown, I'd always go for two after the first score and not wait until the second.

If you miss it the first time, you're down 9 with several minutes left. There are more paths to victory in front of you.
If you miss it the second time, you're down 2 with moments left and you have no way to win aside from recovering an onsides kick.

The "keep it a 1-possession game as long as possible" alternative assumes success of the conversion. But I'd go for it earlier so I know what's in front of me sooner and, if the outcome isn't what I'm hoping for, I have time left to do something about it.

There doesn’t have to be “moments” left. Unless you move at the speed that makes that happen. That’s their own fault if they corner themselves like that.

We’re acting like they only know where they stand by going for two there. They know where they stand if they kick the XP too.

As the folks at 538 said, it seems like sound logic, but the data doesn’t suggest the effect is significant.

[Mackus]

We’re acting like they only know where they stand by going for
two there. They know where they stand if they kick the XP too.

 

Yes, if they kick then you're down 8 and after your next TD you MUST convert for 2 or else you lose.  If you go for 2 early and don't convert, you are obviously in deep shit but there is a bit more flexibility 

 

I'll take down 9 with 6 minutes left over down 2 with 90 seconds left or whatever time conditions we wanna assume.  Ideally you get it either way, but as we've seen things don't always work out ideally. 

 

 

There doesn’t have to be “moments” left. Unless you move at the speed that makes that happen. That’s their own fault if they corner themselves like that.

 

Ok but if there are more than moments left then we're also bringing in the possibility of doing all the hard work to tie it up and then you've still gotta make one additional stand to avoid losing in regulation anyways.

[Mackus]

As the folks at 538 said, it seems like sound logic, but the data doesn’t suggest the effect is significant.

 

I don't recall the evaluation of this decision on a wide scale, but I'm fine with this.  I don't think one way is clearly right or clearly wrong.  I'd do it differently, but don't mind at all if anyone would prefer we kick when down 9 in the 4th.  I just have a big problem with anyone saying that it's somehow a fundamentally poor choice to go for 2.  That's a bad opinion.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yeah, it boils down to the fact that if you don't make the two point conversion (earlier or later) you still need an extra possession to try to overcome that. The "make it a one possession game" theory sort of inherently assumes you WILL succeed on what's basically a coin flip play statistically.

It doesn't assume you make the 2 point conversion. 

Down 15, you know you'll have to get a 2 point conversion. 

Down 15, you score 6... and you can take the xp... and it is a 1 possession game with the chance to convert the 2.
Down 15, you score 6 and you miss the xp, or the conversion... you definitively know it's a 2 possession game. 

You aren't assuming you will make the 2 to tie... you are valuing you have the opportunity to tie vs. definitely knowing you'll need two more possessions and scores.

[Mackus]

It doesn't assume you make the 2 point conversion. 

Down 15, you know you'll have to get a 2 point conversion. 

Down 15, you score 6... and you can take the xp... and it is a 1 possession game with the chance to convert the 2.
Down 15, you score 6 and you miss the xp, or the conversion... you definitively know it's a 2 possession game. 

You aren't assuming you will make the 2 to tie... you are valuing you have the opportunity to tie vs. definitely knowing you'll need two more possessions and scores.

 

Maybe not an exact corollary, but this feels sort of like several years ago when the Orioles got to pick what "seed" they would be in a potential 3-way wild card tie-breaker tournament and they chose to host a single do-or-die game in Baltimore if there were a 3-way tie rather than play two road games but only need to win one of them in order to get a Wild Card.  Although in that case I thought it was clearly wrong for them to choose a single do-or-die home game.  In this case it's more of a 6 / half dozen argument. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

When you're down 15 with enough time left that you don't have to immediately onsides kick after the touchdown, I'd always go for two after the first score and not wait until the second.

If you miss it the first time, you're down 9 with several minutes left. There are more paths to victory in front of you.
If you miss it the second time, you're down 2 with moments left and you have no way to win aside from recovering an onsides kick.

The "keep it a 1-possession game as long as possible" alternative assumes success of the conversion. But I'd go for it earlier so I know what's in front of me sooner and, if the outcome isn't what I'm hoping for, I have time left to do something about it.

This is the correct answer.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ive skipped around the threads a lot so forgive me if this has been discussed but to me you go for it the first time so you know the urgency you need to play with from that point forward. If you take the XP yes its a 1 poss game but you may be comfortable taking the clock down to a point on your next possesion where the conversion is a do or die or essentially a do or die. 10 or 15 on the clock where even if you recover an onsides you have 1 play if youre lucky to get Tucker a long FG opportunity. Down 2 possesions and you get the ball back you may know youll need a TD and onsides but you can play at a pace that gives yourself enough time (45-60+ sec) where if you recover the onsides youll have multiple plays and time to get in FG range and who knows maybe even score a TD.

[Mike in STL]

After the Ravens scored, they got a 3 and out and the ball back with 7:20 to play. If your plan is to eat up 7 minutes and score a TD with just seconds on the clock, and make the conversion (1 or 2) a do or die, then that’s a worse strategy than the 2 point call to begin with.

You’re losing in the 4th. You play with urgency period. The level of urgency to score shouldn’t change whether you trail by 7, 8 or 9 in the fourth. In all cases you want to score fast, in a tie game or not after the conversion, get the ball back by defensive stand, not onside kick, and try to have a chance to win. You’re trailing by 21 at one point. You can’t be so choosy about how you erase that. If you score and give the Browns a chance with 3-4 minutes to move into FG range and win it, fine. Put it on them.

IIRC they had 2 timeouts. With 7:20 to go, you try to score within 3 minutes, and you can go for two then, and miss it, you aren’t dead. You don’t even have to onside kick. You kick it away and they need probably 2 first downs to end it. Keep in mind the Browns offense was doing nothing since halftime adjustments were made.

Honestly, I think they wanted the two points there, so they could with another score, put themselves in the same position they were in in PIT. Two points and the lead/win or miss and need a miracle. Harbaugh is confusing aggressiveness with stupidity again. It’s been a while since he’s done that.

[85Knight]

It has nothing to do with knowing the urgency you need to play with. The bottom line is that with 9 minutes left I'd rather face needing an extra point, another touchdown and a two point conversion to send the game into overtime rather than only getting 6 and needing a touchdown, an extra point or 2 point conversion and a field goal to win or extend the game. It's really that simple and we saw how hard the former scenario was even with a miracle onside kick recovery.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Didnt watch any of the game so game flow and clock Im ignorant on. Regardless when its getting late(know thats subjective) I like going for the 2 in a situation like that right away.

[Mike B]

BSL: https://baltimorespo...dont-be-fooled/

 

Five thoughts on todays game. 

 

Don't be fooled by score. It wasn't close. 

 

Don't be fooled by Harbaugh's lip service on going for two. The risk didn't outweigh the reward. 

 

Hoping for the best regarding Lamar. 

 

Huntley is servicable.

 

Bateman is out of the dog house. 

I always think the game is as close as the score said it is.  

I really did not have an issue of Harbs going for two either this week or last week.  He is dealing with very limited resources and is trying to take his shots when the opportunity presents itself.

FWIW, I thought the Ravens were lethargic the first half, had a ton of calls go against them and I was worried we were going to see a 41-6 type game. They rallied and were in position to win with a minute left. 

I see all the negative stuff here and on talk shows, and I try to tune it out.  We are basically playing with our JV team. 

We lost yesterday because of having to use 2 guys who at OT, who were just not good enough and the 2 fumbles.  I actually thought the Browns caught every break yesterday, including the Ravens getting served up to a rested Browns team that we played 2 times in 3 weeks.

The second half gave me a little hope. 

[Mike in STL]

Yes, if they kick then you're down 8 and after your next TD you MUST convert for 2 or else you lose.  If you go for 2 early and don't convert, you are obviously in deep shit but there is a bit more flexibility 

 

I'll take down 9 with 6 minutes left over down 2 with 90 seconds left or whatever time conditions we wanna assume.  Ideally you get it either way, but as we've seen things don't always work out ideally. 

 

 

 

Ok but if there are more than moments left then we're also bringing in the possibility of doing all the hard work to tie it up and then you've still gotta make one additional stand to avoid losing in regulation anyways.

Depends on when that next TD comes. Like I said, getting the ball back with 7:20 to go, if you decided to eat up 7 minutes of clock, and happen to score a TD, and then you miss, that's your fault for leaving yourself no outs. You need that next score to come within 3 minutes.

 

Yeah, score quickly and the defense has to do their part too. Tis football after all. They did their job in second half. 

 

The only time I'm not leaving any time on the clock is a situation like the Chiefs game this year. Factor in the opposing QB, how your defense is doing at the time. I 100% was on board with the 4th and 2 go for it to bleed out the clock and win the game, rather than punt it back to Mahomes in a 36-35 shootout. 

 

Yesterday, Mayfield hadn't done anything since the middle of the 2nd quarter. After the 1 yard passing TD to Hooper, it was an INT to Averett, punt, Browns D scored, punt, missed FG, punt, punt. I would have worried because I'm invested and it's a tight game. But I would expect the Browns and Mayfield to do what they do best. Suck. And if the defense lets you down, then it's a hell of a lot easier to justify. 

 

I just think you have to take the easy points until your hand is forced, or the math says otherwise. Like if they were down 16 instead of 15. So much can happen in 9 minutes. Say they kick a FG and the ensuing drive. Now you're down 12 instead of 11. It becomes that much harder. It makes the hole you dug yourself that much deeper. Down 11 you can kick a FG first and save some time. Down 12 you have to go the distance, twice. But I guess you don't need the 2pts anymore

 

So much can happen, 9 minutes left wasn't the time to go for it, and I'm sticking to it.