242 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

Morsell is going to be locked in. If Wiggins is going to go pro, each remaining game is a showcase, he wants more than one. Ayala needs to continue to draw fouls and take it to them. I think we're going to see an A+ effort from the Terps. You never know, but I'm feeling it.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Wasnt there some beef between Hurley and MD and or Turge awhile back?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Wasnt there some beef between Hurley and MD and or Turge awhile back?

When he was at Rhode Island:

 

https://www.baltimor...1126-story.html

[hallas]

I feel like UConn is better than a 7 seed. This seems like an unusually tough 7-10 matchup. But I kind of like our chances vs Alabama. At least as much as you can like your chances vs a 2 seed as a 10 seed.

Edit to add: this Terps squad was not a tourney team in my eyes at the beginning of the year in my wildest imagination, so even if they're one and done, I won't be disappointed. Every game they play from here on out is gravy.

[BSLZackKiesel]

UConn opens as 2.5-point favorites.

[ChrisKnoche]

BSL: Terps vs. UConn
https://baltimorespo...s-in-the-ncaat/

[BSLZackKiesel]

This game will tip-off at 7:10 PM ET Saturday on CBS at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN.

[Mike B]

This game will tip-off at 7:10 PM ET Saturday on CBS at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN.

A night game....that is good.  Let's make it to Monday Terps.

[russsnyder]

When he was at Rhode Island:

 

https://www.baltimor...1126-story.html

 

At least he didn't threaten to kill him!

[Mike B]

When he was at Rhode Island:

 

https://www.baltimor...1126-story.html

Interesting, Hurley's post game comments about that Maryland team were very similiar to Maryland's post game comments about Michigan.  They kept everything real positive.

[Mike B]

At least he didn't threaten to kill him!

I admit when I saw Maryland and Michigan in the same region, I checked to see how many games Maryland and Michigan needed to win to see each other again.  the answer is 3...not going to happen.

[BSLPatDonohue]

BSL: Maryland Draws UConn In First Round Of NCAAT
https://baltimorespo...round-of-ncaat/

[hallas]

Reddit has a really great guide on the tourney:


https://www.reddit.c...urnament_guide/

For fun I used their coach expected wins based on seeding against Turgeon's record. In Turgeon's 4 NCAAT with Maryland he was expected to win 4.79 games and actually won 4. So he is a bit behind on the curve but not drastically.

I think the expectation that he regularly reach the sweet 16 or elite 8 once in the tourney is a bit far fetched. First he needs to build a team capable of getting 2-4 seeds on a regular basis. His average seeding is 6.2 right now. If we assume that we were a 3 seed last year it's 5.6.

 

(edit because i'm bad at maths)

[Mackus]

Reddit has a really great guide on the tourney:


https://www.reddit.c...urnament_guide/

For fun I used their coach expected wins based on seeding against Turgeon's record. In Turgeon's 4 NCAAT with Maryland he was expected to win 4.79 games and actually won 4. So he is a bit behind on the curve but not drastically.

I think the expectation that he regularly reach the sweet 16 or elite 8 once in the tourney is a bit far fetched. First he needs to build a team capable of getting 2-4 seeds on a regular basis. His average seeding is 6.2 right now. If we assume that we were a 3 seed last year it's 5.6.

(edit because i'm bad at maths)

The 5 and 6 seeds his teams got in Melo's soph and junior years were major disappointments. Gotta double check but I think all his tourney wins at Maryland have come against double digit seeds. Hasn't pulled an upset as a lower seed or won a 2nd round game against an expected 1st round winner.

I think regularly (as often as not) reaching the sweet 16 is a fair expectation. With better seasons balancing out worse ones. Turgeon will never get there, IMO. Even Gary didn't keep us there after the last remnants of the championship team graduated, though he did get the Terps there in the first place.its a big ask, but given the history and the facilities and the resources, it's what we should be striving for.

[hallas]

The 5 and 6 seeds his teams got in Melo's soph and junior years were major disappointments. Gotta double check but I think all his tourney wins at Maryland have come against double digit seeds. Hasn't pulled an upset as a lower seed or won a 2nd round game against an expected 1st round winner.

I think regularly (as often as not) reaching the sweet 16 is a fair expectation. With better seasons balancing out worse ones. Turgeon will never get there, IMO. Even Gary didn't keep us there after the last remnants of the championship team graduated, though he did get the Terps thereca in the first place.its a big ask, but given the history and the facilities and the resources, it's what we should be striving for.

So I think it's a reasonable expectation to generally make the sweet 16 or better in at least half your seasons. But i wanted to challenge the idea that his teams are choking. They aren't stepping up in the tourney, but they weren't great teams to begin with. In order to make the second weekend more consistently, we need to be good enough to earn 3 or 4 seeds.

Gary had 1 Cinderella run his first trip to the tourney, when he knocked off #2 UMASS as a #10 seed, but after that his next 2 sweet 16 trips were as 3 and 4 seeds. Mixed in there are 2 one-and-dones where we got upset by a double digit seeds.

His tourney results are definitely not great. But going through that exercise made me wonder if we are focusing on the wrong thing with Turgeon.

[Mackus]

The problem is of course that Turgeons teams aren't good enough. Tournament success follows regular season success with few exceptions. There are some coaches/programs that frequently exceed their regular season results on the postseason and others that frequently fall short, though most mainly follow suit with natural volatility given the general randomness and low number of opportunities. Turgeon certainly isn't an exceeder. He might be a choker as there's a pretty common thread of him struggling more the deeper into a season he gets. Just look at his March, conference tourney, and NCAA tourney results.

My opinions on Turgeon are pretty well set. He's a great guy. Very good recruiter. Decent in-game coach, and bad season-long coach (relative to his direct peers in Quad 1). I'd like to move on and try to get another guy who can have more success. I know that there is a chance we go backwards if we do that, but I don't think there is much chance at all of Turgeon moving the program forward beyond where he's had it during his tenureto where I think it should be.

[You Play to Win the Game]

He isn't capable of winning a Championship. He doesn't have the mindset or the chops for it. Great guy, wish him the best, isn't the answer here if the goal is to eventually try and win another ring.

 

Even last year's Big Ten Regular Season Championship (split) was in a down year. MD would have been a 3 or 4 seed. This year's Big Ten had 2 #1 seeds and 2 #2 seeds. 

[BSLRoseKatz]

He isn't capable of winning a Championship. He doesn't have the mindset or the chops for it. Great guy, wish him the best, isn't the answer here if the goal is to eventually try and win another ring.

 

Even last year's Big Ten Regular Season Championship (split) was in a down year. MD would have been a 3 or 4 seed. This year's Big Ten had 2 #1 seeds and 2 #2 seeds. 

Part of that was a couple mid-majors having great seasons, though. Gonzaga is still Gonzaga but Dayton and SDSU both had outstanding years against weaker competition than the Big Ten that was projected to give them 1/2 seeds. The final BracketMatrix for 2020 had 10 B1G teams, so it was still impressive to be co-champions in a conference that deep.    

[You Play to Win the Game]

Part of that was a couple mid-majors having great seasons, though. Gonzaga is still Gonzaga but Dayton and SDSU both had outstanding years against weaker competition than the Big Ten that was projected to give them 1/2 seeds. The final BracketMatrix for 2020 had 10 B1G teams, so it was still impressive to be co-champions in a conference that deep.    

I don't think that has anything to do with it. Those teams grabbed top seeds because of how down the top of some of the other conferences were. Not the other way around. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

UConn SB Nation: Takeaways from Dan Hurley’s pre-tournament press conference

https://www.theuconn...ress-conference