12 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

BSL: https://baltimorespo...de-the-numbers/

 

Everything from Football Outsiders and PFF of note that could be of relevance to this game, plus my one key to limiting their offense and coming away with the W.

[jamesdean]

It's pretty simple to me- DO NOT deviate from what got you here, unlike the last two play-off games when Roman went into panic mode. Take advantage of Tennessee's lousy defense, control the clock and for everything that's holy, TACKLE Derrick Henry when you get the chance behind the line of scrimmage.  I know it's easier said than done but you just can't let the guy get a head of steam.  Limit turnovers and penalties and I do believe the Ravens leave town with a victory.  Barring mistakes, I do see Baltimore scoring 30 points.  The question is, can they give up less than that?  

[Mike in STL]

It's pretty simple to me- DO NOT deviate from what got you here, unlike the last two play-off games when Roman went into panic mode. Take advantage of Tennessee's lousy defense, control the clock and for everything that's holy, TACKLE Derrick Henry when you get the chance behind the line of scrimmage.  I know it's easier said than done but you just can't let the guy get a head of steam.  Limit turnovers and penalties and I do believe the Ravens leave town with a victory.  Barring mistakes, I do see Baltimore scoring 30 points.  The question is, can they give up less than that?  

Agreed all around. Have to play disciplined football in the playoffs. No roughing the passer on 3rd and 15 (cough Judon cough).

 

30 felt like the magic number to me too. Something like 31-28 seems like the appropriate final score. 

[DuffMan]

What's the word on Snead, will he be back for this one?  Obiously running the ball is key but his sure hands and solid run blocking can only help.

 

I really like the fact that they had to win to get in, I'm hoping that do or die mindset will help them from coming out flat.

[makoman]

Good article. The simplified high level view for me is limit turnovers and score TDs in the red zone. In November we were 1-4 in converting TDs, and kicked FGs from the 12, 10, and 9 yard lines.

[Huddle It Up Films]

Great job Mike! This was really well done and thorough. Thank you

[Mike B]

Mike, excellent stuff.  I think if we take care of the ball we win this game.  The regular season game, actually makes me more optimistic.  We played that game without Williams, CC and I think Madubuike and we were controlling Henry to late in the game.  We were up 21-10 and were driving and Lamar threw a pick, and the game turned.  I think the Ravens are better.  I think we win 34-24.

[Mike in STL]

Thanks for the kind feedback fellas.

Regarding Snead, all I’ve heard is Harbaugh said he is “hopeful” he can return, during the presser yesterday.

[Mike B]

Thanks for the kind feedback fellas.

Regarding Snead, all I’ve heard is Harbaugh said he is “hopeful” he can return, during the presser yesterday.

I have a feeling they rested Yannick, Snead and Smith to give them an extra week.  I think they felt pretty confident they were going to be able to take care of the Bengals.

 

Hopefully all go.  I think all are important for Sunday's game.

[PrimeTime]

Having Williams and Campbell in the lineup should be a huge boon for us. Their collective absence in the regular season meeting with the Titans ended up putting a lot of work on Washington, Wolfe and Madubuike. 

 

I'm terrified of seeing Tannehill break a big run by pulling the back from Henry and slipping out the back door. It's going to be imperative that guys set the edge. Unfortunately, it's not really a strong suit for either Judon or Ngakoue.

[Biggsy]

You know what they're going to do defensively. They're going to constantly swap coverages. They're going to be ballsy and play press man on obvious passing downs. And they're going to flood the middle of the field with defenders. They're going to make Lamar win outside the numbers again. Roman has got to know that. And he has got to formulate a gameplan that can take advantage of the outside.

[Ravens2006]

I don't know what the PFF numbers would say about the Ravens average yard per play when running out out of 3 back / T-like formation... But my eyes and memory tells me they tend to gain some big chunks out of it consistently. And a lot of their disaster results come out of empty backfield.

[Mike in STL]

Don't see anything from PFF that talks about formations.

 

Can tell you Lamar Jackson's numbers by passing direction (not counting passes behind the LOS)

 

Left outside the numbers: 27/43, 62.8%. 371 yards, 8.6 Y/A. 8 TDs, 3 INTs

Right outside the numbers: 50/85, 58.8%. 603 yards, 7.1 Y/A. 5 TDs, 1 INT

 

Total outside the numbers: 77/128, 60.2%. 944 yards, 7.4 Y/A. 13 TDs, 4 INTs

Inside the numbers: 122/174, 70.1%. 1,544 yards, 8.9 Y/A. 12 TDs, 5 INTs

 

I'd have to look at each QB individually, it's not in a nice table form, in order to know if Lamar's numbers here are normal for QBs. Having more attempts between the numbers, or a higher % of completions there considering big play shots go more to the outside, and the sideline acts as a defender when someone doesn't get their feet down.