299 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

What a great fan you are.

Words do not exist to properly express how little I care about your opinion of my fandom.

[SportsGuy]

#2 pick is all but locked in.

Os would basically have to win out and watch the Marlins lose out.

Could happen but I tend to doubt it.

[dude]

#2 pick is all but locked in.

 

Just looking at next years draft, I don't know that it matters where you draft in the top 5.

 

Detroit is a pitching heavy system and lacks offense and there's a number of decent offensive guys there where they could pass on Georgia RHSP Emerson Hancock.

 

You've also got a number of college bats with good profiles at 3B, CF, 2B and SS which could all be considerations.

 

Might actually be a draft (if Hancock isn't the guy) where you pool some money off your first pick.

 

Probably a different thread, but the pitching crop was pretty weak last year and you saw the Orioles draft almost no pitchers (2 in top 26 I think) and there's (early perspective) a lot more pitching in next years class.  Probably see the orioles go a lot heavier in pitching.

[SportsGuy]

Yea, the talk has definitely been that its a deep draft next year.

 

No consensus stud, no doubt about it #1 pick...at least not yet.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

We have discussed the approach for the season at length. Some were fine with the tanking and others not so much. But I do think that the season has been a success on at least several fronts.

 

1. We will get a good draft pick. And that's all it is a pick. But with a supposed solid draft depth next year we stand to get a quality player.

 

2. Got to try an number of the players in the system to see how they'd fare and continue to improve. Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays seem to be ready for a full time shot. Remains to be seen how they ultimately pan out but so far so good.

 

3. Got to see Mancini bounce back to a very very good season. Keep him or trade him either way there is some solid value from him.

 

4. Means pretty much surprised all of us and what a pleasant surprise.

[Mike B]

We have discussed the approach for the season at length. Some were fine with the tanking and others not so much. But I do think that the season has been a success on at least several fronts.

 

1. We will get a good draft pick. And that's all it is a pick. But with a supposed solid draft depth next year we stand to get a quality player.

 

2. Got to try an number of the players in the system to see how they'd fare and continue to improve. Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays seem to be ready for a full time shot. Remains to be seen how they ultimately pan out but so far so good.

 

3. Got to see Mancini bounce back to a very very good season. Keep him or trade him either way there is some solid value from him.

 

4. Means pretty much surprised all of us and what a pleasant surprise.

Yea, I think we found a few players this year, but bottom line, to me, another wasted baseball season.

I will never get used to the idea, that a team is content to lose.   I used to be a guy who went to at least 20 - 25 games a year.  I went to 3 this year, and only paid for 2.  That will not change next year.

[bmore_ken]

We have discussed the approach for the season at length. Some were fine with the tanking and others not so much. But I do think that the season has been a success on at least several fronts.

 

1. We will get a good draft pick. And that's all it is a pick. But with a supposed solid draft depth next year we stand to get a quality player.

 

2. Got to try an number of the players in the system to see how they'd fare and continue to improve. Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays seem to be ready for a full time shot. Remains to be seen how they ultimately pan out but so far so good.

 

3. Got to see Mancini bounce back to a very very good season. Keep him or trade him either way there is some solid value from him.

 

4. Means pretty much surprised all of us and what a pleasant surprise.

My guess is those things are pretty much what Elias was going for. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

The only team ever with consecutive 110 loss seasons is the 1962-63 Mets.  If the O's lose out, they would be the second team.  Now that the dream of the #1 pick is over, It'd be nice to win one more game and avoid that.

 

The 1962-65 Mets lost 452 games.  That's not good.

[dude]

We have discussed the approach for the season at length. Some were fine with the tanking and others not so much. But I do think that the season has been a success on at least several fronts.

 

1. We will get a good draft pick. And that's all it is a pick. But with a supposed solid draft depth next year we stand to get a quality player.

 

2. Got to try an number of the players in the system to see how they'd fare and continue to improve. Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays seem to be ready for a full time shot. Remains to be seen how they ultimately pan out but so far so good.

 

3. Got to see Mancini bounce back to a very very good season. Keep him or trade him either way there is some solid value from him.

 

4. Means pretty much surprised all of us and what a pleasant surprise.

 

2, 3 and 4 have nothing to do with the not caring about losing approach.  

 

Those things could certainly happen if you are trying to win too.

 

We will get one unique draft pick. 

Hopefully we're not pinning the future of the Organization on that one pick (and the one in 2021 too) given that they drove away the fanbase (attendance and ratings) at a record level.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Sorry to infer that those items were all as a result of tanking. Wasn't my intent. What I intended to portray four positive outcomes of the season.

[SportsGuy]

Sorry to infer that those items were all as a result of tanking. Wasn't my intent. What I intended to portray four positive outcomes of the season.

You didn’t infer that. It’s just dudes obsession to bring it up in every post.

[dude]

Sorry to infer that those items were all as a result of tanking. Wasn't my intent. What I intended to portray four positive outcomes of the season.

 

OK, thanks.  

 

I think there are more positives to the season.

 

5. Involvement in the IFA market.

 

6. I think the draft was positive beyond the potential of Adley.

 

7. We are putting more effort/resources into analytics (I think it's it a more minor contribution than most, but still has value)

 

8. We'll see how the staff changes work out.  Potential to be good (or challenging over time)

[DuffMan]

4. Means pretty much surprised all of us and what a pleasant surprise.

 

I really hope that he follows it up with another solid year.  We've had guys through out the years that have had a great season and you think that they might be someone you can count on going forward only to turn back into a pumpkin in the next season.

[Mike B]

I really hope that he follows it up with another solid year.  We've had guys through out the years that have had a great season and you think that they might be someone you can count on going forward only to turn back into a pumpkin in the next season.

That happens all over the game.  The Orioles seem to have had more than their share though.  When watching Means, he always seems to have a plan, and I think and hope that bodes well for his future.  His change up is a plus pitch.  As long as he has the feel for that pitch, he should be good.

He was fun to watch this year.

[bmore_ken]

Sorry to infer that those items were all as a result of tanking. Wasn't my intent. What I intended to portray four positive outcomes of the season.

Sounded pretty simple to me

[McNulty]

Officially locked into the second pick.

[BobPhelan]

Sounds like a deep draft and Detroit isn’t exactly the smartest organization. I’ll take it.

[NewMarketSean]

Amazing there were so many awful teams this year and we kind of had to sweat it out. I’ll take a no 2 pick.

[weird-O]

Sounds like a deep draft and Detroit isn’t exactly the smartest organization. I’ll take it.

The Sun listed the #2 pick from '12 to this year. Aside from the last couple seasons (because it's too early to tell if those picks will pan out) there has been a solid payoff. The couple of misses are from teams that are consistently terrible, like Miami and Cincy. A smart org. will know how to choose wisely.  

[Mackus]

A smart org. will know how to choose wisely.  

 

I think you'll find most organizations are more or less the same when it comes to drafting at the top.  A few teams that are really bad (the Orioles for 20 years, for example), but I don't think there is anyone who consistently hits far more often than teams in general, and if there is, I bet it's more of a short-term happenstance than something they are actually truly good at.

 

Median #2 picks from '80-'04 was 12 career WAR.  Average is 15 career WAR.  44% of picks became decent players (I'm defining that as >12 career WAR).  20% became good players (defined as >30 career WAR).  8% became great (>50 career WAR).

 

I can change the year ranges or definitions of each level if you'd like that.  All numbers were pulled in the middle of 2018, so I haven't updated anything since then for anyone active and currently accumulating worth (part of why I stop at 2004, most of those guys have finished their careers).

 

I do think it's fair to wonder if modern draft and scouting is greatly improving things at the top.  Can't judge the past 10 or years based on career WAR because guys are so early in their careers if they've even started them, and I don't like using prospect ranking because that is highly correlated with draft position so I don't think it's uniquely indicative of true MLB ability.