398 replies to this topic

[CA-ORIOLE]

It had plenty of chance of working out.  I still think Manny can be a good SS in the future.  And if he can't, then I doubt he will remain as elite at 3B as he's been in the past.

 

Criticizing it as stupid with no hope of working out is entirely Monday morning quarterbacking, even if you were against it ahead of time.  It wasn't implausible at all that Manny would make a good SS.  Certainly reasonable to think he would be better than Beckham, which is all it would've take to be the right move, IMO.

We've been over this same ground before. Baseball analytics and decision making evolve around assessing the probability of success. In my opinion the probability of success here was low just considering the basic analytics. Then you have the obvious issue with adjustment times that both players were gong to have to overcome (there is more including some more subjective analysis, but lets just   stop at those two). Just breaking down those two basic factors the decision making comes off as poor to me. So, "no hope" and "low probability" are different assessments. I think there's also an opinion/bias here that Beckham was just a horrible defensive SS last year. He wasn't  not just in my opinion but in the opinion of the metrics. 

 

As far as Machado's future at SS. What he did this year certainly doesn't define him. It provides some evidence. He can improve and probably did improve as the season went along. I doubt he'll ever be above average, or consistently above average going forward, but he may not be one of the worst SS's in the league either if that's the position he ends up playing in the future. Great arm but I don't see any other notable SS skills there (range, quickness, athleticism etc.) and I don't see the greatest work ethic either.

[bmore_ken]

I was hoping for something that was better placed within the timeline of events. If he's had this nagging injury for 4 seasons, I can't see the urgency to move him to a less demanding position at this precise moment. It's noteworthy, but I don't see it as a strong rebuttal to against the notion that Buck was appeasing Manny's desire to play SS.  

That decision is exhibit A why Buck needs to be gone. To cover all the bases. If management had something to do with it, he should have told them he's playing third or I walk. If it was Manny's idea, he should have told him you're playing third, get back to work. If the problem was Beckham's "injury", I'm sure there was an available SS that could have been signed to fill in until he got back. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

That decision is exhibit A why Buck needs to be gone. To cover all the bases. If management had something to do with it, he should have told them he's playing third or I walk. If it was Manny's idea, he should have told him you're playing third, get back to work. If the problem was Beckham's "injury", I'm sure there was an available SS that could have been signed to fill in until he got back. 

 

Strange choice to put injury in quotes, since the guy had major surgery and missed two months.

 

Also, can you honestly say that Beckham's been better at SS than Manny so far?  Beckham has pretty much sucked.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Mackus, on 31 Jul 2018 - 07:15, said:
Sounds similar to a previous 3B-to-SS move that the organization made that nobody is criticizing as idiotic because it happened to work out swimmingly.

Not the exact same decision, of course, but I do think it is an example of people letting the results dictate their opinion of the decision-making.

I thought the "more plays at SS" logic was poor then and I think it's poor now. Quite frankly, elementary and ad-hoc enough to make me think more that Buck owned it. I gave a detailed summary of why I thought it was poor logic at the time I first heard it. So whoever came up with it, I think it was poor. All I know is Buck was the one explaining it and he didn't say it came from the FO. Meanwhile the FO didn't say a word about defending that move as far as I know

[CA-ORIOLE]

Strange choice to put injury in quotes, since the guy had major surgery and missed two months.

 

Also, can you honestly say that Beckham's been better at SS than Manny so far?  Beckham has pretty much sucked.

I can say that Beckham was better at SS last year than Machado was this year, 

[Crouseman]

I can say that Beckham was better at SS last year than Machado was this year, 

Didn't look hurt at the end of last year. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Wow, I just looked at Beckham's stats... he's fielding .891 this year at SS. Eight freaking ninety-one. I know, SSS and fielding percentage isn't that helpful anyway... but .891! Welcome to the 19th century. Hughie Jennings would laugh at .891, and I'm not even sure he used a glove.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Didn't look hurt at the end of last year. 

That's true. 

[weird-O]

Strange choice to put injury in quotes, since the guy had major surgery and missed two months.

Also, can you honestly say that Beckham's been better at SS than Manny so far? Beckham has pretty much sucked.

All true, but it was an injury that happened after the move. So, from a "what's the motivation to move Manny" perspective, TB's injury doesn't sway the current.

The other debates are still open to the floor. I've seen some good points made, that support the switch. And your latest post is one of them. That's an ugly fielding %

[bnickle]

Wow, I just looked at Beckham's stats... he's fielding .891 this year at SS. Eight freaking ninety-one. I know, SSS and fielding percentage isn't that helpful anyway... but .891! Welcome to the 19th century. Hughie Jennings would laugh at .891, and I'm not even sure he used a glove.

And the official scorers are way more kinder to the hitters and the defenders now. So many balls ruled hits that should be errors.

[Crouseman]

Really strange we didn't bring back Flash as a third base buffer with Beckham unproven and possibly dinged up.  I didn't really want him back , but I sure didn't want Valencia and Alvarez as our third base fall backs.  A really disjointed off season.  Not dealing Manny in Dec threw everything out of whack.

[CA-ORIOLE]

All true, but it was an injury that happened after the move. So, from a "what's the motivation to move Manny" perspective, TB's injury doesn't sway the current.

The other debates are still open to the floor. I've seen some good points made, that support the switch. And your latest post is one of them. That's an ugly fielding %

Beckham has a .957 FP% at SS over 1,539 innings and has been abut PAR (including last year) by the metrics over that time at SS. He's had 9 games and 87 innings at SS since coming back from injury and having prepared himself to play third base this offseason and at then beginning the year at third base. An 891 FP% is certainly unacceptable level of play and would be unaceptable going forward. Again it's over 9 games.

He's a guy that's going to make errors and is never going to satisfy some people here with that (even last year when he put up a a 3.4 WAR). So why don't we give the guy the rest of the year to see if he can sort it out, hopefully soon and evaluate his overall play and future at the end of the season. I'm a little bit excited to hear that the surgery may have helped with the chronic injury issues.

[Crouseman]

Beckham has a .957 FP% at SS over 1,539 innings and has been abut PAR (including last year) by the metrics over 1,539 innings at the SS position. He's had 9 games and 87 innings at SS since coming back from injury and having prepared himself to play third base this offseason and at then beginning the year at third base.  An 891 FP% is certainly unacceptable level of play and would be unaceptable  going forward. Again it's over 9 games.

 

He's a guy that's going to make errors and is never going to satisfy some people here with that (even last year when he put up a a 3.4 WAR). So why don't we give the guy the rest of the year to see if he can sort it out, hopefully soon and evaluate his overall play and future at the end of the season. I'm a little bit excited to hear that the surgery may have helped with teh chronic injury issues.

Yeah good point on the surgery.  Get to have a fair evaluation of him the rest of the year. 

[weird-O]

Beckham has a .957 FP% at SS over 1,539 innings and has been abut PAR (including last year) by the metrics over 1,539 innings at the SS position. He's had 9 games and 87 innings at SS since coming back from injury and having prepared himself to play third base this offseason and at then beginning the year at third base. An 891 FP% is certainly unacceptable level of play and would be unaceptable going forward. Again it's over 9 games.

He's a guy that's going to make errors and is never going to satisfy some people here with that (even last year when he put up a a 3.4 WAR). So why don't we give the guy the rest of the year to see if he can sort it out, hopefully soon and evaluate his overall play and future at the end of the season. I'm a little bit excited to hear that the surgery may have helped with the chronic injury issues.

Looking at his career stats (.957), he's a better SS than this years stats suggest. Not exciting, but much better than anything in the .800's. Unfortunately, his bat doesn't really make up for the middling D.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Looking at his career stats (.957), he's a better SS than this years stats suggest. Not exciting, but much better than anything in the .800's. Unfortunately, his bat doesn't really make up for the middling D.

It did last year ... by quite a bit actually. SS's aren't typically offensive forces like Manny. The offense has been a lot better post DL. There are some good indicators there. I think it's just another area we'll have to wait and see and evaluate, hopefully injury free. I thin there enough physical ability there to be patient and not rush to judgement just yet. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah, I have no problem going into 2019 with Beckham as the starting SS.  He was really good last year, and injured this year, so I'd give him another shot.

[Crouseman]

Yeah, I have no problem going into 2019 with Beckham as the starting SS.  He was really good last year, and injured this year, so I'd give him another shot.

He'll be good cannon fodder for a rebuilding year.  if he plays well could be a trade chip for desperate team.  He shouldn't be in any long range plans that's for sure.  

[bmore_ken]

Strange choice to put injury in quotes, since the guy had major surgery and missed two months.

Also, can you honestly say that Beckham's been better at SS than Manny so far? Beckham has pretty much sucked.

injury is in quotes because I know that's not why Manny was moved to short. I know he was actually injured. Whether or not he was better at short than Manny is irrelevant. You don't move the top 3rd baseman in the league to a different position(that he didn't play well as it turned out) because he's whining about it. That's why Buck needs to go. The team needs a real leader managing the team.

[weird-O]

It did last year ... by quite a bit actually. SS's aren't typically offensive forces like Manny. The offense has been a lot better post DL. There are some good indicators there. I think it's just another area we'll have to wait and see and evaluate, hopefully injury free. I thin there enough physical ability there to be patient and not rush to judgement just yet. 

True, and he brought a great deal of excitement and energy. But he also tailed off, as the season waned. Granted, that could be the result of the wheels coming off the Orioles cart. But that burst of offense is really an outlier. His career stats spell bench/role player.