Photo

2018 Kentucky Derby


  • Please log in to reply
40 replies to this topic

#21 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 05 May 2018 - 06:25 PM

Betting horses is so easy

#22 You Play to Win the Game

You Play to Win the Game

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 57,245 posts
  • LocationMaryland

Posted 05 May 2018 - 06:37 PM

Cheers.

Glory Days on me for the next 5 March Madness Fridays. 40-1 future bet on March 11. Unreal.

Awesome! Happy for you.
  • SBTarheel likes this

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

Mike Elias


#23 Dupin

Dupin

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,130 posts

Posted 05 May 2018 - 07:12 PM

Cheers. 

 

Glory Days on me for the next 5 March Madness Fridays. 40-1 future bet on March 11. Unreal. 

 

Well done.


  • SBTarheel likes this

#24 Pedro Cerrano

Pedro Cerrano

    I Miss McNulty

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 33,428 posts
  • LocationEllicott City, MD

Posted 05 May 2018 - 10:23 PM

Cheers.

Glory Days on me for the next 5 March Madness Fridays. 40-1 future bet on March 11. Unreal.


I’ll see ya at Outback! Bring your credit card!

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

@bopper33


#25 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 05 May 2018 - 10:24 PM

I’ll see ya at Outback! Bring your credit card!

Anytime. On me. 


@beginthebegin71

#26 McNulty

McNulty

    la cerveza está muy fría

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,621 posts
  • LocationBS

Posted 06 May 2018 - 08:49 AM

I did not do well yesterday.  I'm very jealous Seth, so toss off.

 

Good news is I think I got my lady friend hooked on horse racing.


@fuzydunlop


#27 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 10:55 AM

How about the one guy who bet a future on Justify at 300-1, before he broke his maiden..That was some story. Bet him based on workouts and word of mouth. 

 

$500 win, cashed for $150 large!

 

I did it a few minutes after his second win. I think the Preakness will be a walkover for him, but the Belmont could test his stamina, and the horse I ended up betting yesterday (Hofburg, ran 7th) is the best bred horse for the longest Triple Crown distance. We'll see. 


@beginthebegin71

#28 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:18 PM

How about the one guy who bet a future on Justify at 300-1, before he broke his maiden..That was some story. Bet him based on workouts and word of mouth.

$500 win, cashed for $150 large!

I did it a few minutes after his second win. I think the Preakness will be a walkover for him, but the Belmont could test his stamina, and the horse I ended up betting yesterday (Hofburg, ran 7th) is the best bred horse for the longest Triple Crown distance. We'll see.

How do you even get a sportsbook to take action on a horse that hasnt broke its maiden.

I mean I get that horses have to stay healthy and then go out and win the race but getting 50-1 on a Bob Baffert horse in March seems like well worth a bet.

#29 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:22 PM

How do you even get a sportsbook to take action on a horse that hasnt broke its maiden.

I mean I get that horses have to stay healthy and then go out and win the race but getting 50-1 on a Bob Baffert horse in March seems like well worth a bet.

The guy at The Wynn  figured it was easy money, there weren't even odds on him at the time, he made it up. Crazy story. 

 

I took a shot at 40-1 after I saw his second race, but still didn't really think it would win at the time. Just assumed Baffert wouldn't have enough time to get him ready. Better to be lucky than good! 

 

http://www.espn.com/...churchill-downs


@beginthebegin71

#30 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:25 PM

The guy at The Wynn figured it was easy money, there weren't even odds on him at the time, he made it up. Crazy story.

I took a shot at 40-1 after I saw his second race, but still didn't really think it would win at the time. Just assumed Baffert wouldn't have enough time to get him ready. Better to be lucky than good!

http://www.espn.com/...churchill-downs

So you got 40-1 after Santa Anita? Thats just crazy to me. I mean good for you but Id take an undefeated, strong, well pedigreed BB horse every year at 40-1 less than 2 months from the Derby

#31 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:28 PM


So you got 40-1 after Santa Anita? Thats just crazy to me. I mean good for you but Id take an undefeated, strong, well pedigreed BB horse every year at 40-1 less than 2 months from the Derby

Not the SA Derby but the race he ran on Mar 11. Did he have to win the SA Derby to qualify for the Derby?

#32 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:28 PM

So you got 40-1 after Santa Anita? Thats just crazy to me. I mean good for you but Id take an undefeated, strong, well pedigreed BB horse every year at 40-1 less than 2 months from the Derby

Not after the Santa Anita Derby, it was March 11, literally minutes after he won his second race, just an allowance. He hadn't even run in a stakes yet, it was non winners of two. They still obviously had high hopes for him, but at the time he had no Derby points at all. He had to win or run second in the Santa Anita Derby just to get in to the Derby. 


@beginthebegin71

#33 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:31 PM

Not the SA Derby but the race he ran on Mar 11. Did he have to win the SA Derby to qualify for the Derby?

Yes, it's a points system, only the top 20 get in, each designated prep race is worth a certain amount of points for 1st to 4th. The Santa Anita Derby was his only prep. 

 

In the business I'm in, I do have the advantage of knowing people in Vegas that can get bets in for me, plus people that hear things at certain racetracks....That helps for sure. 

 

The word was out that Baffert had a superstar, but no one thought he could get him ready in time. 


@beginthebegin71

#34 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:33 PM

I guess 40-1 is about right considering he had to win or place at SA, stay healthy and then actually win the Derby. Still, getting 40-1 on that type of horse less than 2 months out feels pretty opportunistic

#35 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:36 PM

I guess 40-1 is about right considering he had to win or place at SA, stay healthy and then actually win the Derby. Still, getting 40-1 on that type of horse less than 2 months out feels pretty opportunistic

No question. 

 

I didn't even like him yesterday before the weather, I didn't cash one ticket from bets I made this week.   Who knows if any closers make up ground on a fast track. 


@beginthebegin71

#36 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:43 PM

Baffert seemed very concerned he wouldnt break well and if that happened on that track yesterday his hopes would be dashed. Thats what happened to Mendelssohn and he was pulled back halfway through the race. Wonder if he'll go at Preakness.


Justify certainly looks like another superhorse but I agree with you that the real test will be Belmont. Most of what was a really strong field will sit out Preakness and look to New York

#37 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 06:48 PM

Baffert seemed very concerned he wouldnt break well and if that happened on that track yesterday his hopes would be dashed. Thats what happened to Mendelssohn and he was pulled back halfway through the race. Wonder if he'll go at Preakness.


Justify certainly looks like another superhorse but I agree with you that the real test will be Belmont. Most of what was a really strong field will sit out Preakness and look to New York

I heard today it might be the smallest Preakness field in recent memory...Mendelssohn is headed back home. None of the 4 Pletcher horses will come, and I heard Good Magic will wait for Belmont too. The other California horses (Instilled Regard, Bolt D'Oro and Solomini) are getting some R&R until Summer as well. Hofburg looks like a Belmont horse (I was too ambitious with him yesterday, he will be a monster, but not yet). 


@beginthebegin71

#38 bnickle

bnickle

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,177 posts

Posted 06 May 2018 - 07:01 PM

Yeah I juzt read that Mendelssohns trainer ideally wants his shot at Justify in the BC Classic. Its crazy. For me, the Derby field is usually too big but the Preakness field is either too small or has too much filler

#39 SBTarheel

SBTarheel

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,765 posts
  • LocationEldersburg, Md

Posted 06 May 2018 - 07:04 PM

Yeah I juzt read that Mendelssohns trainer ideally wants his shot at Justify in the BC Classic.

interesting. I like that idea. 


@beginthebegin71

#40 Pedro Cerrano

Pedro Cerrano

    I Miss McNulty

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 33,428 posts
  • LocationEllicott City, MD

Posted 06 May 2018 - 07:39 PM

Great. Another Preakness where it will be hard to make money. Justify will be like 3:5 if there are only 5 horses in the race

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

@bopper33





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=  width=