I'm not a statistician, but I'm curious as to what sort of tear Adam would need to go on to finish with an OPS above .900. It seems in the "lower run environment" that finishing above .900 would be really special, especially since it looks like the days of the Bondsian 1.000+ OPS are behind us.
Can Adam finish over .900?
Started by
Pedro Cerrano
, Aug 08 2012 11:35 AM
8 replies to this topic
#1
Pedro Cerrano
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:35 AM
There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note
"Now OPS sucks. Got it."
"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."
"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty
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#2
SportsGuy
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:41 AM
His OPS is at 861 right now. His BB rate is still poor and where it was last year, so he isn't likely going to get any help from that.
His BABIP is at his career average.
His LD% is up but not by a lot.
He has a very high HR/FB%.
All in all, nothing in his stats suggest that he is likely to improve his OPS by 40 points but it only takes a few week scorching stretch at this point to do it.
I would say he is likely to end up right in the area he is now...somewhere between 840-875.
His BABIP is at his career average.
His LD% is up but not by a lot.
He has a very high HR/FB%.
All in all, nothing in his stats suggest that he is likely to improve his OPS by 40 points but it only takes a few week scorching stretch at this point to do it.
I would say he is likely to end up right in the area he is now...somewhere between 840-875.
#3
Mackus
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:44 AM
He's at 861 right now with 52 games left to go. He's had 470 PA.
He's played in every game, and I think that will continue barring injury or sitting him out late if we fall out of the race or - I can't believe I'm typing this - lock up a playoff spot early.
Assuming the same rate of PAs, he'll finish with 692 PAs. To finish with a 900 OPS, he'd have to hit at a 983 clip over the remainder of the season. He was at 980 in April and 985 in May. He was at 726 in June, 816 in July, and just 630 so far in June (no walks and just one double, his AVG is good).
It's possible for him to get to 900, but he'd have to finish the season just as hot as he started it. 826 the rest of the way keeps him at 850 for the season. And anything above 670 and he'll finish with an 800+ OPS for the first time in his career.
He's played in every game, and I think that will continue barring injury or sitting him out late if we fall out of the race or - I can't believe I'm typing this - lock up a playoff spot early.
Assuming the same rate of PAs, he'll finish with 692 PAs. To finish with a 900 OPS, he'd have to hit at a 983 clip over the remainder of the season. He was at 980 in April and 985 in May. He was at 726 in June, 816 in July, and just 630 so far in June (no walks and just one double, his AVG is good).
It's possible for him to get to 900, but he'd have to finish the season just as hot as he started it. 826 the rest of the way keeps him at 850 for the season. And anything above 670 and he'll finish with an 800+ OPS for the first time in his career.
#4
BSLChrisStoner
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:47 AM
Good question.
Right now Jones is at:
440 ab's, 128 hits, 26 doubles, 3 triples, 24 hr's, 58 rbi's, 22 bb's, 75 k's, .291 baa, .861 OPS
His wOBA is .368, and his ISO is .236.
In ’11, Jones had a wOBA of .339, and his ISO was .185. For the 2nd consecutive year, he played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. (.785 OPS in 567 ab's, with 53 xbh's. He had 159 hits, walked 29 times, and had 12 steals.)
My question going into the year, was wondering if Jones could have an 'Ellsbury' like jump.
In '11, Ellsbury posted a .928 OPS, with 83 xbh's. He had 212 hits, walked 58 times, and had 39 steals.
This was coming off of a injury riddled 2010 where Ellsbury played in just 18 games.
In 2009, Ellsbury had a .770 OPS in 624 ab's, with 45 xbh's. He had 188 hits, walked 49 times, and had 70 steals.
Jones might not quite reach Ellsbury's levels from last year, but he already has matched his own XBH total from last year. Seeing if Jones can finish the year with an OPS over .900 is definitely something to watch.
Right now Jones is at:
440 ab's, 128 hits, 26 doubles, 3 triples, 24 hr's, 58 rbi's, 22 bb's, 75 k's, .291 baa, .861 OPS
His wOBA is .368, and his ISO is .236.
In ’11, Jones had a wOBA of .339, and his ISO was .185. For the 2nd consecutive year, he played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. (.785 OPS in 567 ab's, with 53 xbh's. He had 159 hits, walked 29 times, and had 12 steals.)
My question going into the year, was wondering if Jones could have an 'Ellsbury' like jump.
In '11, Ellsbury posted a .928 OPS, with 83 xbh's. He had 212 hits, walked 58 times, and had 39 steals.
This was coming off of a injury riddled 2010 where Ellsbury played in just 18 games.
In 2009, Ellsbury had a .770 OPS in 624 ab's, with 45 xbh's. He had 188 hits, walked 49 times, and had 70 steals.
Jones might not quite reach Ellsbury's levels from last year, but he already has matched his own XBH total from last year. Seeing if Jones can finish the year with an OPS over .900 is definitely something to watch.
#5
Russ
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:49 AM
Jones doesn't walk enough to hit .900. He'd need at least a .550 SLG and that's not out of the realm, but unlikely.
#6
RichardZ
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:55 AM
Not exactly going out on a limb here but I think he'll be closer to .800 than .900 by the end of the year. If he gets back up to .900 by the end of the season, he'll be in the MVP talk.
#7
BSLChrisStoner
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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:57 AM
Jones had a .864 OPS in the 1st half, and has had an .854 OPS in his 101 ab's since the Break.
#8
BSLChrisStoner
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Posted 14 August 2012 - 04:43 PM
Up to .874 on the year.... .364 average in August, but no homers in 44 ab's.
#9
Pedro Cerrano
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Posted 14 August 2012 - 05:31 PM
Not worried about the homers, they will come, just keep getting on base AJ.
There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note
"Now OPS sucks. Got it."
"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."
"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty
@bopper33
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