26 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

That according to the standings on ESPN.com. That's the 10th best percentage in the AL.
They get that stat from a site called coolstandings.com. Here's their explanation: http://www.coolstand...com/welcome.asp

Do you think that percentage is roughly correct?

If so, or it's somewhat close, does it make sense to give up anything for the future for rentals?

I know this has been discussed plenty, but I thought it was interesting to see a number attached to the O's playoff chances.

[Can_of_corn]

I think it is about twice as high as it should be. 3.1% sounds about right to me. The O's run differential is even worse then the '05 Padres (-42). It is of course conceivable they get hot again but the last month has looked a lot more realistic to me then April and May did.

[JTrea81]

Run differential isn't the sole predictor of playoff chances.

Just look at how the Cardinals are doing and how the Red Sox are doing for example.

This team needs to be all in because besides 2005, this is our best shot in 15 years at the playoffs and there's no guarantee that the 2013 or 2014 teams will be this good.

[DJ MC]

Run differential isn't the sole predictor of playoff chances.

Just look at how the Cardinals are doing and how the Red Sox are doing for example.

This team needs to be all in because besides 2005, this is our best shot in 15 years at the playoffs and there's no guarantee that the 2013 or 2014 teams will be this good.

Neither one is a good example. The Red Sox aren't underperforming their differential by much, and the Cardinals are streaking--they're doing the same thing as the Orioles, only going the other way.

[bnickle]

Yes, I mentioned this in the "Our future is now" thread when debating Peter and, whether intentional or not, he never responded. Not trying to call him out but I do think it's a reality for those that want us to buy need to face. Now, maybe we do have a better than 6% chance though IMO that seems about right to me. Even the most orange colored of optimists can't put us above 15-20%.

[Mackus]

I would still have liked (would like) to see the Orioles add a few pieces if they can do so cheaply. I haven't seen exactly what Liriano was traded for but have read that it was a pretty modest package, and he is someone I really would have liked to add for the last two months.

I'm not for mortgaging the future or anything that could be construed that way, but I'd move a few of the guys in the 10-20 range for some shorter term help (Liriano, Victorino, some 3B/2B help) as well as move higher rated options if they bring back a longer-term solution (Headley).

I don't think it's an awful decision or an injustice to the team and fans if they don't add anybody, but I would prefer to see some additional help brought in, even just average pieces, as long as it doesn't cost very much in prospects.

[DJ MC]

I would still have liked (would like) to see the Orioles add a few pieces if they can do so cheaply. I haven't seen exactly what Liriano was traded for but have read that it was a pretty modest package, and he is someone I really would have liked to add for the last two months.

I'm not for mortgaging the future or anything that could be construed that way, but I'd move a few of the guys in the 10-20 range for some shorter term help (Liriano, Victorino, some 3B/2B help) as well as move higher rated options if they bring back a longer-term solution (Headley).

I don't think it's an awful decision or an injustice to the team and fans if they don't add anybody, but I would prefer to see some additional help brought in, even just average pieces, as long as it doesn't cost very much in prospects.

I really don't see any value in Liriano right now. His FIP and xFIP are better than his base ERA, but he'll also be moving into a tougher park in a tougher division, he walks way too many guys and already gives up a homer a game in a below-average home-run park.

He's more likely to struggle than turn things around, and even if it looks like he does start to find himself again he walks anyway.

Yeah, he doesn't cost much. However, over two-thirds of the season he's been essentially a win better than Tommy Hunter (fWAR). In four starts Chris Tillman was worth almost half of Liriano's value over seventeen. If we want to fix someone over two months in the majors, Arrieta is in the same boat with his ERA versus his FIPs.

On the surface, the talent in that left arm and the apparent low cost makes this sound like a missed opportunity. However, the more I look at it the more convinced I become that it really isn't one.

[mweb08]

I really don't see any value in Liriano right now. His FIP and xFIP are better than his base ERA, but he'll also be moving into a tougher park in a tougher division, he walks way too many guys and already gives up a homer a game in a below-average home-run park.

He's more likely to struggle than turn things around, and even if it looks like he does start to find himself again he walks anyway.

Yeah, he doesn't cost much. However, over two-thirds of the season he's been essentially a win better than Tommy Hunter (fWAR). In four starts Chris Tillman was worth almost half of Liriano's value over seventeen. If we want to fix someone over two months in the majors, Arrieta is in the same boat with his ERA versus his FIPs.

On the surface, the talent in that left arm and the apparent low cost makes this sound like a missed opportunity. However, the more I look at it the more convinced I become that it really isn't one.

But if you break down his season rather than look at is a whole, you'll see that he has turned things around. He's been quite good since returning to the rotation other than his most recent start, which was awful. That last start was actually against the White Sox, so they obviously weren't discouraged much by it.

His HR numbers aren't that bad in totality either, but especially not since returning to the rotation, again, other than his last start. 3 Hr's allowed in 65ish innings before then. Even counting that start, 6 in 68 innings is fine. He didn't give up any in relief either. He's also not a big HR's allowed guy for his career.

[mweb08]

Yes, I mentioned this in the "Our future is now" thread when debating Peter and, whether intentional or not, he never responded. Not trying to call him out but I do think it's a reality for those that want us to buy need to face. Now, maybe we do have a better than 6% chance though IMO that seems about right to me. Even the most orange colored of optimists can't put us above 15-20%.

Yeah, that's why I'm good with standing pat for the most part even though Liriano would have been nice.

I don't see much point to trading away much to make a run this year. Guys like Headley are of course a different case.

If the team had played better recently, I would have been more supportive of them being aggressive to win this season.

[Mackus]

I really don't see any value in Liriano right now.

What mweb said. I'd take Liriano over the remainder of the season over everybody else in our rotation who isn't Chen. Maybe I'm wrong and he won't be the best of the bunch, but I can pretty much guarantee he'd finish in the top 4 and be an upgrade.

[SportsGuy]

Liriano, by himself, does very little for this team.

[Can_of_corn]

Run differential isn't the sole predictor of playoff chances.

Just look at how the Cardinals are doing and how the Red Sox are doing for example.

This team needs to be all in because besides 2005, this is our best shot in 15 years at the playoffs and there's no guarantee that the 2013 or 2014 teams will be this good.

Did I say it was Trea? However, it is a fact that only one team with a run differential greater then -20 has ever made the playoffs. Only 6 total have done it at all.

Kinda silly to ignore it entirely.

[Oriole85]

This team needs to be all in because besides 2005, this is our best shot in 15 years at the playoffs and there's no guarantee that the 2013 or 2014 teams will be this good.

That's sort of what I'm afraid of, everyone likes to think will be "better" in the future, but we've been hearing that for the last 14+ years. We're always 2-3 years away form competing. Remember the cavalary was supposed to do great things... still waiting there and looking gloomier by the day.

[mweb08]

Liriano, by himself, does very little for this team.

Well besides potentially adding a couple wins or so.

[Kevin Ebert]

Just for reference, Baseball Prospectus gives the Orioles a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

[Oriole85]

Just for reference, Baseball Prospectus gives the Orioles a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Whats the formula for these things is it math-based or is it opinion OR both? Does it take into consideration things like past years performance or how much money players are making? Just curious how exactly these things get formulated.

[mweb08]

Whats the formula for these things is it math-based or is it opinion OR both? Does it take into consideration things like past years performance or how much money players are making? Just curious how exactly these things get formulated.

Math based. You can look at the link I provided for the explanation of what's used on ESPN and BP for their explanation.

How much money players make is not considered.

[DJ MC]

Whats the formula for these things is it math-based or is it opinion OR both? Does it take into consideration things like past years performance or how much money players are making? Just curious how exactly these things get formulated.

From how I understand it, CoolStandings does their system as more of a "this season only" guess, while BP takes into account past performance and player projections and other things.

[Oriole85]

From how I understand it, CoolStandings does their system as more of a "this season only" guess, while BP takes into account past performance and player projections and other things.

Thanks interesting

[erb8472]

Up to 11.3% after two games. That should be enough to show you that these predictions aren't worth the paper they are written on.

Win 2 games against the team leading the division and suddenly your chances almost double?