13 replies to this topic

[Greg Pappas]

http://sports.yahoo.... ... arket.html

Baltimore Orioles aren't playing out of their minds. So much so that it's unfortunate, actually, because they'd make a great sell candidate if doing so wouldn't murder a fan base that's already so alienated it should reside in Roswell.

Jim Johnson is a perfect sell-high guy, one year shy of free agency and excelling, and if the Rays hold onto Rodney and Huston Street signs an extension with San Diego, the relief market would pay top dollar for Johnson. It might be nice to sell off Nick Markakis, whose $15 million salary could be well-positioned elsewhere, but no chance that happens, owner Peter Angelos' irrational love for Markakis what it is.

Here's the thing: The Orioles aren't good enough to buy. Injuries rendered their rotation a mess, they've got a minus-44 run differential and no matter how great a job manager Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette have done – and quite great is the answer – sacrificing more surprising years for the quick high of one is impractical.

The Orioles should hold while the rest of the AL East goes into buy mode. Yes, the Yankees (starting pitching and maybe a reliever). Yes, the Red Sox (pitching, pitching, pitching). Yes, the Blue Jays (same, with a deep enough farm system to support the buy). You see why the pitching market refuses to yield any race-changing deals. Sellers would be foolish not to ask for above market, hoping a team with a history of big trade buys like the …

[BSLChrisStoner]

Thanks for this Greg.

I tried to touch (http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4301) on all the different considerations that the O's could be going over as the Non-Waiver Deadline nears this morning, but Passan's quick-hit shows I omitted at-least one variable.

Passan points out that the rest of the East is likely to be in buy mode (and are better able to do so). Like Passan, I argued for the O's standing-pat. However, if the rest of the East is buying, public (and internal) pressure will build on the O's to make responding moves of their own.

[You Play to Win the Game]

He makes some fair points, but I don't see any reason why the O's can't still make some trades that will help us be good for years to come. Plenty of teams will be buying, but not necessarily buying the same thing.

[JTrea81]

Duquette would never sell standing pat to Peter Angelos nor the majority of the fanbase.

We've got to go for it.

[LanceRinker]

He makes some fair points, but I don't see any reason why the O's can't still make some trades that will help us be good for years to come. Plenty of teams will be buying, but not necessarily buying the same thing.

I think there are quite a few players out there that could be had (by the O's) relatively cheaply (prospectd wise) that would be worth picking up to pursue this crazy playoff dream of ours - while, obviously, not gutting the farm system that we have.

Wandy and Liriano come to mind. John Lannan is another.

[PD24]

Thanks for this Greg.

I tried to touch (http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4301) on all the different considerations that the O's could be going over as the Non-Waiver Deadline nears this morning, but Passan's quick-hit shows I omitted at-least one variable.

Passan points out that the rest of the East is likely to be in buy mode (and are better able to do so). Like Passan, I argued for the O's standing-pat. However, if the rest of the East is buying, public (and internal) pressure will build on the O's to make responding moves of their own.

There's less logic in standing pat if the rest of the AL East goes out and makes moves because then the O's would be falling further behind in talent compared to the rest of the East than they already are.

[BSLChrisStoner]

There's less logic in standing pat if the rest of the AL East goes out and makes moves because then the O's would be falling further behind in talent compared to the rest of the East than they already are.

Right, that was what I was alluding to above. If the rest of the division starts adding, there will be growing pressure for the O's to do the same.

[LanceRinker]

There's less logic in standing pat if the rest of the AL East goes out and makes moves because then the O's would be falling further behind in talent compared to the rest of the East than they already are.

Sure - they'd be falling further behind this season, no doubt. However - where's the logic in trading away what few serviceable pieces in our farm system that we have for a one and done shot at the post season? It pains me to say this, but unless the O's could acquire players that would cost next to nothing prospect wise to shore up certain places we need shoring up at (rotation, corner infield) than I don't think we should do it.

I'd rather us be competitive and post season worthy over the next five or six seasons (or at least close to it) as opposed to doing everything we possibly can, in regards to trading young talent, just for the chance to get into a one game playoff to face a division winner this season.

In that one game playoff - likely against Jered Weaver and the Angels - we would have to burn through whoever our best starter is at the time (if Hamel isn't back fully healthy yet) just to take on a rested division winner.

If we had a shot to win our division, a real shot, then yeah - I'd say why not. But because we're talking about the chance to play a one game playoff to then face a division winner AFTER we've already used our number one starter - no thanks to that.

Don't get me wrong - I want the O's to win, I want them to win badly. But I'd rather them hold onto our better prospects not named Bundy/Machado so we can be good for five or six years going forward as opposed to blowing our load early, i.e. this season and not having whatever potential reinforcement we currently are trying to develop when we need them next year and beyond.

Unless of course we're getting Headley or J. Upton - that's a different story then. Not sure we have the necessary pieces to pull of those trades though.

[Oriole85]

I'd rather us be competitive and post season worthy over the next five or six seasons (or at least close to it) as opposed to doing everything we possibly can, in regards to trading young talent, just for the chance to get into a one game playoff to face a division winner this season.

In that one game playoff - likely against Jered Weaver and the Angels - we would have to burn through whoever our best starter is at the time (if Hamel isn't back fully healthy yet) just to take on a rested division winner.

If we had a shot to win our division, a real shot, then yeah - I'd say why not. But because we're talking about the chance to play a one game playoff to then face a division winner AFTER we've already used our number one starter - no thanks to that.

Don't get me wrong - I want the O's to win, I want them to win badly. But I'd rather them hold onto our better prospects not named Bundy/Machado so we can be good for five or six years going forward as opposed to blowing our load early, i.e. this season and not having whatever potential reinforcement we currently are trying to develop when we need them next year and beyond.

We've been in the being competitive in the next 3-4 years mindset for far too long? Who is to say this might be their best shot for the next 5-6 years? Who knows if either Bundy and/or Machado pan out. Odds are I'd say that one will and one won't given injuries&ineffectiveness. Just saying this might be our best shot, who knows?

[LanceRinker]

We've been in the being competitive in the next 3-4 years mindset for far too long? Who is to say this might be their best shot for the next 5-6 years? Who knows if either Bundy and/or Machado pan out. Odds are I'd say that one will and one won't given injuries&ineffectiveness. Just saying this might be our best shot, who knows?

I understand where you are coming from - but this team is posting a winning record with the holes we currently have. We have intolerable defense at the corners (3rd and 1st), barely capable defense at 2nd and what's shaped up to be a semi- plug and play kind of rotation.

I'm happy, ecstatic even, that the team has been playing this well overall. I'm not going to be tricked into the idea that trading off pieces to help sustain what we are currently building is a good thing though - especially when the payoff is simply a 'chance'. If we were a stronger team then sure - we take that chance because it dramatically improves our odds.

Any moves we make will probably just incrementally improve our odds - if even at all - the Yankees aren't going anywhere and will continue to outplay everyone else in the division. The Red Sox are playing solid ball and are getting people back from injury. The Blue Jays we shouldn't even have to worry about but they've still been alright.

Couple all of that with the moves that the White Sox and Angels have made - what chance do you think we really have?

Sure - a miracle can happen. But I'd rather not sell off what few trade chips we have in the minors to barely make a dent.

We have a solid core in place still - free agency is where we will have to make up some ground.

[Oriole85]

I understand where you are coming from - but this team is posting a winning record with the holes we currently have. We have intolerable defense at the corners (3rd and 1st), barely capable defense at 2nd and what's shaped up to be a semi- plug and play kind of rotation.

I'm happy, ecstatic even, that the team has been playing this well overall. I'm not going to be tricked into the idea that trading off pieces to help sustain what we are currently building is a good thing though - especially when the payoff is simply a 'chance'. If we were a stronger team then sure - we take that chance because it dramatically improves our odds.

Any moves we make will probably just incrementally improve our odds - if even at all - the Yankees aren't going anywhere and will continue to outplay everyone else in the division. The Red Sox are playing solid ball and are getting people back from injury. The Blue Jays we shouldn't even have to worry about but they've still been alright.

Couple all of that with the moves that the White Sox and Angels have made - what chance do you think we really have?

Sure - a miracle can happen. But I'd rather not sell off what few trade chips we have in the minors to barely make a dent.

We have a solid core in place still - free agency is where we will have to make up some ground.

I wouldn't trade either Machado and Bundy and sounds like they won't. I hope I didn't imply that. What I am saying and have said -- while it may seem like deep odds now, this might be our only realistic shot for the next 3-6 years with the ways things have gone on for the past 14. I'm not saying it will. I just don't want to look back in 5-6 years and say well "we should've done this" or "that."

[LanceRinker]

[
I wouldn't trade either Machado and Bundy and sounds like they won't. I hope I didn't imply that. What I am saying and have said -- while it may seem like deep odds now, this might be our only realistic shot for the next 3-6 years with the ways things have gone on for the past 14. I'm not saying it will. I just don't want to look back in 5-6 years and say well "we should've done this" or "that."

Okay - well we agree there.

I really do think that this team can be even more competitive next season. If we actually utilized free agency during the offseason than I think we'll be better for it and still have retained our prospects outside of Bundy and Machado.

I don't think we'll be looking back in five or six years going "oh, we should've trade this prospect for that player". What I think would happen is that we'll be saying "dammit, why'd we trade this prospect for that player. It didn't even get us into the playoffs."

That's my concern.

[Oriole85]

Since we probably still have to overpay to get anyone of significance, who do you think are realistic FA targets?

[LanceRinker]

Since we probably still have to overpay to get anyone of significance, who do you think are realistic FA targets?

Realistically speaking:

1B - James Loney

2B - Jose Lopez and Maicer Izturis

3B is a blackhole in FA the next two seasons (at least). Plus, Lopez and Izturis could both play there if we didn't want to move Hardy.

OF - Melky Cabrera would be a great FA option for us but he's pricing himself out of a realistic range for us in relation to what he'll actually provide production wise. Outside of him I would go after BJ Upton (primary target), Grady Sizemore (he can DH if he needs to), and Scott Hairston (utility/DH guy).

SP - Shaun Marcum (primary target if healthy), Joe Saunders, Dice-K (if healthy), and Scott Baker would be my first choices beyond Greinke and Dan Haren.