14 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

This post is a follow-up to an earlier post (http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4301) this morning, looking at the numerous things the Orioles Front-Office has to be considering as the Non-Waiver Deadline appears.

My conclusion in that post was that the supporting data does not show the Baltimore Orioles as likely to contend over the remaining two months of the year. However, with their performance to-date, I think the O’s roster has earned the opportunity to stay in-tact.

What I want to discuss in this post, is the idea of no external additions, nor the removal of any existing pieces. The idea being, with the players currently existing within the Orioles organization, what has to occur for Baltimore to continue to contend during the remaining two months?

1) Hammel has to be ready to go by September 1st, and be strong that last Month of play.

2) Chen is 8-5, with a 3.80 era. In his 116 ip, he has allowed 106 hits, 15 hr’s, 36 bb’s, with 88 k’s. His OPS against is .702, and his G/F ratio is 0.63. His numbers in May, June, and July have been fairly consistent. He has to maintain his current level of production.

3) Tillman, and Britton have to perform down the stretch.

Going into 2009, Tillman was the 16th ranked prospect (http://mlb.mlb.com/m..._top&pid=501957) according to MLB.com. In ’10, Tillman was 11-7, with a 3.34 era at AAA. In ’11, he was back in the Majors, trying to get by with an 87 mph fastball. In ’12, he was solid at AAA (while rebuilding his mechanics), and has looked good in 2 of his 3 ML starts. He has shown a return of his velocity, with better movement. Now 24, he has 39 Major League games under his belt. If he can show an ability to consistently maintain his new mechanics, and stuff; he has a good chance to help. The O’s need him to perform.

In ’10, Britton was the O’s Minor League Player of the Year, and named the 10th best prospect in baseball (http://www.baseballa...10/2610314.html) by Baseball America during the middle of that season. In ’11, he was 11-11, with a 4.61 era in 154.1 ML innings. After looking horrible in July, he rebounded with a competitive August and September. The shoulder injury was scary, but he is back in the rotation and apparently healthy. His start yesterday was very promising, with Britton utilizing his 2 seam fastball to force 13 grounders from the Indians lineup. That start can not be the occasional reward, it has to become the expected norm.

4) I think Matusz, and Arrieta need to bang down the door at AAA.
Matusz (3 AAA starts): 1-1, 3.68 era, 22 ip, 18 hits, 1 hr, 6 bb’s, 10k’s
Arrieta (2 AAA starts): 2-0, 3.18 era, 11.1 ip, 13 hits, 1 hr, 4 bb’s, 11 k’s

If these two force their way back to Baltimore, the pitching staff becomes deeper and improves as a whole. Do they get to the point where they can re-join the roster, and help over the last 6 weeks?

5) Hardy has hits in last 6 games, but still has an OPS of just .638 (.261 OBP). He is certainly due for a run of sustained production. Would be a major lift to the lineup if he can finish at (or above) his career OPS of .742.

6) Reynolds is currently getting a lot of credit for his defense at 1st, but his UZR/150 there is (-13.9). He has to help the roster with his bat. In 2,700+ ab’s, his career OPS is .806. This year it is .707. He’s had 8 homers in 230 ab’s, after 141 total homers the past 4 years. If there no additional moves, it appears that Reynolds will get the chance to play everyday at 1st the rest of the year. He can basically double his current total ab’s. The O’s need Reynolds to add another 15 big flies to his total.

7) Thome is now at an .824 OPS for the year. Basically identical to the .827 OPS he had in 206 ab’s for the Twins last year. If he can maintain that playing everyday these next two Months, that is a major upgrade to the middle of the O’s lineup.

8) Even with Betemit’s horrific numbers vs. LHP (.485 OPS, in 71 ab’s), his overall offensive numbers (.748 OPS) are liveable. Getting the opportunity to play everyday at 3rd, his defense is not good (or even average), but his UZR/150 (-4.2) is not quite as poor as one might expect. In ’08, he played in 87 games. In ’09 he played in 20 games. In ’10 he played in 84 games. In ’11 he played in 97 games. The O’s need him to avoid hitting a wall, and seeing his production (offense and defense) falling off any further.

9) Following a strong April and May; Davis struggled in June, and has been poor in July (though he has hits in 3 of his last 4 games, including a double, and a HR). I’m still pleased with his season as a whole. He has hit LHP and RHP equally. The poor walk to k ratio can not be ignored, but neither can his 28 XBH’s. He is not a strong OF, but I don’t think he is showing to be a liability either. As the O’s have the option of using Chavez as a defensive replacement in games close and late; I don’t see Davis’ defense in LF as a huge issue for the O’s. What does matter is his bat. Can he again catch fire for another 4-6 weeks?

10) Markakis has provided a lift to the team since returning from the DL. He has hits in 8 of his 10 games played, including 5 multi-hit games. He has also walked 4 times. However, after 4 doubles in his initial 2 games back, he has not had an XBH since. His OPS for the season is back over .800. No matter what, he has to continue to get on-base. His legs should be fresh, and I think that will help him to finish strong. The O’s need him to be an impact player.

11) Wieters had a .937 OPS in April, a .605 OPS in May, .822 OPS in June, and has a .662 OPS in July. Last year, Wieters hit much better in the 2nd half (crushing in August and September) than he did in the 1st. That gives me he hope that he will not wilt as he goes through another full-season of catching. We’ve talked about the ancillary players on the O’s roster, and needing more from them. Wieters is one of the O’s stars. He has to play like one.

12) Gonzalez and Hunter have to continue to give you something. I have no idea what to expect from Gonzalez. Right now, he is giving the team some quality outings. He’s not someone I feel comfortable relying on, but he’s also gaining my confidence that he can keep the O’s in games. I do think Hunter can help a staff. While I would prefer him in the pen for a couple of innings at a time, he is pitch efficient, and he limits his walks. Obviously he allows a lot of hits and homers. If he can spend the next month being productive starting, that would help a lot. Just give some innings, limit the damage, and turn the ball over to pen.

13) The O’s have won 5 games in a row, because the starters have combined to allow 7 er in their last 27.2 innings of work. The rotation does not have to be that good. They do have to provide a similar amount of innings, each time through the rotation. If that occurs, the bullpen gets the chance to catch their breath, and match-up. In September the pen can be bolstered by the expanded rosters.

14) Right now, this is Adam Jones’ team. Some will debate how good of a thing that is, but that is a different discussion. Jones has seemingly gotten past the wrist injury, and is again back on the up-swing. For the year, Jones has a .290 baa, with 22 homers, 50 rbi, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 20 bb’s, with 67 k’s. His OPS is .871. His wOBA is .371. His fWAR is 2.9. On August 1st, Jones turns 27. This is the prime of Jones’ career, and he is the leader on a team that has a chance to play their way into the post-season. He has had a very strong year. The O’s need him to have a great year. That can only occur with Jones turning things back-up a notch, and finishing the season on another tear.

15) This is the first year of the 2nd Wild Card, but history shows that 89 wins is typically what will be required to reach the Playoffs. If 89 wins is the goal, the O’s have to go 38-29 the rest of the way. I think you have to step-back and not look at it in those larger terms. It gets back to each individual series, and putting series wins on the board.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Good points here. I think by far the most important is #3. If we compete, these two will need to consistently contribute.

[Nuclear Dish]

When you think about it, this is a lot to expect from this team. It's incredible that a team of this limited overall talent level is still competitive this late in the year. To think that they will pull off a playoff spot, even with the extra WC, is pretty far-fetched.

It makes for a terrific story if they somehow manage it, but I, for one, am not counting on it. I am just enjoying the ride while it lasts.

[SportsGuy]

When you think about it, this is a lot to expect from this team. It's incredible that a team of this limited overall talent level is still competitive this late in the year. To think that they will pull off a playoff spot, even with the extra WC, is pretty far-fetched.

It makes for a terrific story if they somehow manage it, but I, for one, am not counting on it. I am just enjoying the ride while it lasts.

Right....Chris's list is right and while, individually, nothing he is asking for is crazy, collectively, its pretty insane to think it can all happen.

[LanceRinker]

As far as 89 wins is concerned. The O's could further take care of business against a potential 2nd WC contender by getting the 4-game sweep over the Indians tonight.

But more than that - or the O's having to win 89 games (historically speaking) - they have to beat the teams that could cause them trouble in snagging one of the two wild card spots.

They have 67 total games remaining and 41 of those games are against teams vying for a wild card spot, or a team that could be.

1 - Cleveland
9 - TOR
9 - Rays
6 - A's
9 - Bos
3 - Det
4 - CHW

Again, they could deal a serious blow to the Indians tonight by finishing this four game sweep.

Our biggest issues, IMO, will be the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays as we play most of our remaining games out of this bunch against them. We also end the season with a three game set agains Boston.

I'm not as concerned about the Blue Jays or Rays overall as I am the Red Sox because of the injuries TOR and TBR are dealing with, but it should still be a concern.

To not fall out of this thing completely we will need to beat the teams we are directly competing with for one of the two WC spots.

A sweep at the hands of any of these teams could seriously impair our odds as well. It'll be a tough road for us, one of the bigger challenges we've probably had to face at any point this season. I do believe in this team though, as they've been defying the odds all season long.

I plan on riding this bus till the very end.

[Mackus]

It's all about the starting pitching. The offense isn't good enough to carry the team if the starters are struggling. The bullpen is irrelevant if we're behind all the time.

I tend to doubt that Tillman, Britton, Gonzalez, and whoever the hell else we throw out there can do even a marginally effective job as a group over the next 6 weeks or so until Hammel is hopefully back, but there is always a chance that they can do well enough to keep the team competitive. The dominant bullpen will help the team win a very large share of close games, enough to overcome an unfavorable runs-scored to runs-allowed rate. The defense isn't a huge concern for me. While there have been obvious struggles by a few individual players, the overall team defense hasn't been nearly as bad as it seems. The team is still 12th overall in defensive efficiency.

If the replacement starters can exceed expectations, then we'll remain in the thick of things. I don't think it's really feasible to go out and trade for any more than one average starting pitcher, which I would look into doing (Wandy Rodriguez could be an option that doesn't require much of a return). I'd focus most of the trade chips we have to offer on getting Headley.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Nice post Lance. I agree, we need to fare well against teams who we are directly competing against for that WC. The Rays will be tough starting Tuesday as we face Hellickson, Price and Shields.

[LanceRinker]

Nice post Lance. I agree, we need to fare well against teams who we are directly competing against for that WC. The Rays will be tough starting Tuesday as we face Hellickson, Price and Shields.

Thanks!

Yeah - my thinking is that even if we end up winning those 89 games, or more, it won't matter if we don't own the tie breakers against those other teams.

Here is our current W-L breakdown against the teams in question:

BOS: 6-3
CHW: 3-1
DET: 1-2
OAK: 2-1
TBR: 3-3
TOR: 5-4

[BSLChrisStoner]

It's all about the starting pitching. The offense isn't good enough to carry the team if the starters are struggling. The bullpen is irrelevant if we're behind all the time.

I'm basically in agreement, though I think the offense will improve from the 20th in runs, 17th in slugging they are today; to back towards the upper-third in those categories.

[Oriole85]

I feel like this is way too unrealistic, expecting the best and having no setbacks.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I feel like this is way too unrealistic, expecting the best and having no setbacks.

The point that expecting each of those things to happen, without setbacks, being unrealistic is legitimate. However, your comment puzzles me. Who made the point that each (or any) of those things would happen?


Better discussion would be, what do you believe has to happen? What do you believe can happen? What do you believe can not?

[Oriole85]

The point that expecting each of those things to happen, without setbacks, being unrealistic is legitimate. However, your comment puzzles me. Who made the point that each (or any) of those things would happen?


Better discussion would be, what do you believe has to happen? What do you believe can happen? What do you believe can not?

I guess it's just implied when you have a whole laundry list of things. Maybe I jumped to conclusions too early.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I guess it's just implied when you have a whole laundry list of things. Maybe I jumped to conclusions too early.

Implied? The preface starts with me stating I don't believe the supporting data shows the O's likely to contend over the last two months (linking to another post providing further detail of why I don't believe it).

The body of this piece says, 'What has to occur.'

How does 'What has to occur,' equate to 'This is what will happen?'

[ncicere]

I think the most important thing would be Britton, Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz making a difference with the big league club. Why make a trade if you have talent in your organization that is just as good elsewhere? This would make all the difference. Even though the current rotatio has posted 6 straight quality starts...

[Mackus]

I think the most important thing would be Britton, Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz making a difference with the big league club. Why make a trade if you have talent in your organization that is just as good elsewhere? This would make all the difference. Even though the current rotatio has posted 6 straight quality starts...

Agree completely that the biggest game changer would be getting good starting pitching, whether that is from our current group of disappointing (to this point) pitchers or from some outside help or any combination thereof.

These guys that we have may have talent that is just as good as other players, but they haven't utilized it well at all. I would definitely still like to target some SP, even mediocre ones, to help eat innings over the remainder of the season and give us a shot at making the playoffs. I don't think it's wise to count on or to expect any of our young starting pitchers to be able to keep doing that through September, yet alone for 2 or 3 of them to do it. There is definitely the tradeoff to consider, however, of how likely our chances of contending are even if we add a couple average SPs through trade versus the cost it will take to acquire those SPs.