This was discussed briefly in the WCF thread, wanted to start a new one here.
KD is obviously a free agent after this season. While all 30 teams would welcome him with open arms, I want to focus on three; OKC, the Lakers and the Wiz. The case for all three:
The case for OKC:
This is the most likely scenario IMO. OKC can pay him the most due to the CBA and, since the revenue sharing and cap and max deals go up after next year, I would guess he will sign again for one season to try to win a title with the current regime, which came very close this year. After next season Westbrook is an FA and something tells me he is going to leave regardless which means OKC basically would have one more year to win. The west is extremely tough which is a downside and it's possible that KD believes this franchise as constructed has gone as far as they can go.
The case for Washington:
Well, he is from DC obviously. It's pretty much accepted that the Wiz have made moves to try and entice him (hiring his former coach(es), drafting Oubre who has a connection). There is also an argument to be made that KD would be better off playing with Wall rather than Westbrook. Wall is the better passer, better distributor, is less selfish, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective etc etc. Westbrook is obviously the better overall player, is a better rebounder and better defender (although Wall I still maintain is a pretty damn good defender himself when he's trying). There is also the argument that I laid out above that KD wants to move on because he feels like the OKC team has maxed out on potential. Also, all due respect to OKC but I'm sure he would rather live in DC than Oklahoma. Finally, the East is not nearly the gauntlet the West is. A Wizards team with Wall, Beal, Durant, Gortat and a suitable 4 (Morris for now) would be the second best team in the East IMO with really only one team in Cleveland to have to overcome. The Wiz also have a decent amount of cap space to bring in another max player (this is void obviously if they give Beal a max deal). The downside is that Grunfeld is a bonehead and there are rumors that he does not like coming home due to the attention. My counter is that, yea, people from here hound him because he only comes to DC once a year. If he played half his games here that "pressure" would lessen.
The case for LA:
Kobe is gone, tons of cap space. Tons of great young talent with another top draft pick on the way. A chance to play for the greatest franchise in NBA history and be the next star to have their jersey in the rafters. I know I get on players that sign with the Yankees as being mercenaries but KD would be different as he wouldn't be joining a bunch of stars already in place. Plus, the NBA is a much more individual game so any accolades given to him would be earned (he couldn't ride coattails like, say, ARod). Plus, you know, living in LA has its benefits, is a great media market, etc etc. All the intangible things that the Lakers use to sell on players applies here (although did not work with Aldridge who, coincidentally, went home to San Antonio). Finally, a chance to play for Luke Walton, an up and coming coach and possibly reunite with Westbrook after this year who would certainly entertain coming home to Los Angeles.
So, a lot of possibilities and this doesn't even include the Spurs, Heat, Warriors, Celtics etc etc. I really think he is going to sign with OKC for another year and then hit the motherload either in LA or DC. But other teams remain a possibility. I could see SA as a perfect fit if Parker, Duncan and Ginobili retire and they form a new core withe LA, Durant and Leonard to try to get Pop one more ring.
Should be fun to follow this offseason either way.
