378 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

We won't win another game this year, so everyone worrying about the pick can relax.

[bnickle]

Dude just look at the old value chart for each pick. And we are in contention for 1 or 2. You've seen all the value teams have gotten from trading out of those top picks before. If we were talking picking 15 vs 10th it's not as crucial. You start talking about top 5. That's a lot of value.

[bnickle]

We won't win another game this year, so everyone worrying about the pick can relax.

I'd take that bet. I think 2 is possible. Especially, if Cincy has a bye locked up week 17

[Pedro Cerrano]

Dude just look at the old value chart for each pick. And we are in contention for 1 or 2. You've seen all the value teams have gotten from trading out of those top picks before. If we were talking picking 15 vs 10th it's not as crucial. You start talking about top 5. That's a lot of value.

Aren't you like me in that you hate looking at numbers in a vacuum?

[Hooded Viper]

Dude just look at the old value chart for each pick. And we are in contention for 1 or 2. You've seen all the value teams have gotten from trading out of those top picks before. If we were talking picking 15 vs 10th it's not as crucial. You start talking about top 5. That's a lot of value.

 

Heard that this year's draft is a down year in terms of top talent.  Is that true???

[bnickle]

Heard that this year's draft is a down year in terms of top talent. Is that true???

That's the word now. A lot can change, but if one of those Qbs do enough and jump to the top of the draft board it's a game changer.

[Hooded Viper]

That's the word now. A lot can change, but if one of those Qbs do enough and jump to the top of the draft board it's a game changer.

 

I think it is pretty obvious that this team needs the next Peter Bouleware or Terrell Suggs but I would be just as fine with the next Jonathon Ogden or Ed Reed.  I don't need a glityz pick but I honestly believe Ozzie needs a HOF caliber player(I know PB wasn't a HOF).  It is the most important draft since 1996!!

[Dupin]

I just hope we're not Inadequate for Fournette next season.

[bnickle]

I think it is pretty obvious that this team needs the next Peter Bouleware or Terrell Suggs but I would be just as fine with the next Jonathon Ogden or Ed Reed. I don't need a glityz pick but I honestly believe Ozzie needs a HOF caliber player(I know PB wasn't a HOF). It is the most important draft since 1996!!

I trust Oz when it comes to drafting elite talent. One miss inside the top 13 of a draft. Travis Taylor and he wasn't a complete bust.

[Mackus]

I'd take that bet. I think 2 is possible. Especially, if Cincy has a bye locked up week 17

 

I think there is a conceivable chance we win each of the road games: @Cleveland next week, @Miami the week after, and the season finale @Cincy if they have no hope of improving their standing.  We have no chance at all in any of the home games: Seahakws, Steelers, Chiefs.

 

Any wins the rest of the way would surprise me, though.  I would've guessed 2-4 before Joe went down (after Forsett) assuming that Cincy shows up to play.  If you write off Cincy as a gimme win, but now lose Joe, I think we'd be lucky to get any wins of those other 5 games.  We've had a razor thin margin of error so far this year as it is, take away Joe and we are way behind the game.  It's possible Manziell hands us the ball a ton like Keenum did today.  I don't think any of the other QBs do that, and we're likely gonna need to get 3+ turnovers to win any of these games.

 

Dropping games to the Dolphins and in particular the Browns would do good things for our draft status

[PatrickDougherty]

I did not see this from my seats but my goodness Case Keenum looked to be in pretty bad shape

 

http://deadspin.com/...es-u-1744086564

[Mackus]

Wow, I didn't notice that either.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I saw it... I was blown away that no one checked on him. So obvious he was effed up pretty good.

[Chris B]

Yeah, that was absurd he wasn't pulled from the game. Very clear watching on tv.

[Mackus]

It was bugging me, so I did some Tucker research.  It is absolutely fair to say he's struggled mightily on kicks of over 50+ yards the past two years.  His first two years he was a combined 10/11 from 50+.  Last year he was 4/9 and this year he's 2/7.  So he's really struggled recently after being excellent his first two years.  Career totals is 16/27 (59%) plus 1/1 over 50 in the playoffs (last year at Heinz field).  59% is below average for the entire NFL, for the years Tucker has been in the league the NFL average on kicks over 50 has been 61%, 67%, 61% and 70% this year.  That's all kickers and locations, though.  I can't seem to find indoor/outdoor splits for kickers.  My guess is kicker's make kicks - and make them from distance - much more often indoors than outdoors. 

 

He's 32/37 in his career from 40-49 for 86.5% (NFL average is around 80).  He's 35/36 from 30-39 yards (NFL average 90%) and perfect 36/36 inside 30 (NFL average 97%).

 

I don't think he's overrated, as he's still a solid 10% above average for his career on any kick inside 50 and right around average on long ones.  All of that while playing the vast majority of his games outdoors.  Certainly fair to say he's really struggled from long distance the past two seasons.  If that doesn't turn around, would certainly be a problem moving forward. 

 

I think I'd still take him over anybody not named Gostkowski, and am fine with making him one of the top paid kickers in the league after this year.

[bnickle]

It was bugging me, so I did some Tucker research. It is absolutely fair to say he's struggled mightily on kicks of over 50+ yards the past two years. His first two years he was a combined 10/11 from 50+. Last year he was 4/9 and this year he's 2/7. So he's really struggled recently after being excellent his first two years. Career totals is 16/27 (59%) plus 1/1 over 50 in the playoffs (last year at Heinz field). 59% is below average for the entire NFL, for the years Tucker has been in the league the NFL average on kicks over 50 has been 61%, 67%, 61% and 70% this year. That's all kickers and locations, though. I can't seem to find indoor/outdoor splits for kickers. My guess is kicker's make kicks - and make them from distance - much more often indoors than outdoors.

He's 32/37 in his career from 40-49 for 86.5% (NFL average is around 80). He's 35/36 from 30-39 yards (NFL average 90%) and perfect 36/36 inside 30 (NFL average 97%).

I don't think he's overrated, as he's still a solid 10% above average for his career on any kick inside 50 and right around average on long ones. All of that while playing the vast majority of his games outdoors. Certainly fair to say he's really struggled from long distance the past two seasons. If that doesn't turn around, would certainly be a problem moving forward.

I think I'd still take him over anybody not named Gostkowski, and am fine with making him one of the top paid kickers in the league after this year.

Yup, he's a Top 3 kicker. Give me the assurance of what he does inside of 50 over some struggles recently outside of 50. It would be one thing if he was Stover, who I still loved, and just didn't have the leg from 50+. We know he has the leg. The outdoor/ indoor thing is certainly a factor as well. I'm positive he thought he nailed the game winner from 53 yesterday the first time before it faded late on him.

[RShack]

Is distance the first thing that goes?

[Mackus]

http://www.nfl.com/f...mics/episode-12

 

I can't find the source data for this research, but from 2007-2010 this says the average indoor 5-+ yard FG percentage by month was 63%, 54%, 53%, and 71% (Sep-Dec).  Outdoor it was 51%, 57%, 53%, 49%.  Not sure how many kicks were kicked each month to get a true average, but the mean of those 4 months is 60.3% indoor and 52.5% outdoor.

 

Surprised I can't find better data, if anyone knows of better sources, I'd be interested.

[PatrickDougherty]

It was bugging me, so I did some Tucker research.  It is absolutely fair to say he's struggled mightily on kicks of over 50+ yards the past two years.  His first two years he was a combined 10/11 from 50+.  Last year he was 4/9 and this year he's 2/7.  So he's really struggled recently after being excellent his first two years.  Career totals is 16/27 (59%) plus 1/1 over 50 in the playoffs (last year at Heinz field).  59% is below average for the entire NFL, for the years Tucker has been in the league the NFL average on kicks over 50 has been 61%, 67%, 61% and 70% this year.  That's all kickers and locations, though.  I can't seem to find indoor/outdoor splits for kickers.  My guess is kicker's make kicks - and make them from distance - much more often indoors than outdoors. 

 

He's 32/37 in his career from 40-49 for 86.5% (NFL average is around 80).  He's 35/36 from 30-39 yards (NFL average 90%) and perfect 36/36 inside 30 (NFL average 97%).

 

I don't think he's overrated, as he's still a solid 10% above average for his career on any kick inside 50 and right around average on long ones.  All of that while playing the vast majority of his games outdoors.  Certainly fair to say he's really struggled from long distance the past two seasons.  If that doesn't turn around, would certainly be a problem moving forward. 

 

I think I'd still take him over anybody not named Gostkowski, and am fine with making him one of the top paid kickers in the league after this year.

Really quick math on just the 2015 numbers but the converted FG% for indoor is 81.5% and outdoor is 86.1% this year. I just didn't do any multiyear stuff or break it down by ranges. It's entirely possible that this year has just seen more indoor kicks from distance or some other confounding factor. I can make my spreadsheet available if you want it, and if you want to check the indoor/outdoor stadium designations I did from memory. Also this is through week 10; pro-football-reference.com doesn't have week 11 stats up yet.