200 replies to this topic

[JonBernhardt]

http://baltimorespor...s-davis-choice/

 

I don't think the Orioles can afford not to bring Chris Davis back, given the team as it stands, their window, and who the most likely teams to ink Davis are should he not return to Baltimore.

 

I am, however, preparing my body and mind for the Daniel Murphy 1B/2B/LF/DH Experience as we speak.

[McNulty]

No mention of the Astros (unless I missed it). I consider them to be just as big of a threat as the Cards.

[BSLChrisStoner]

No mention of the Astros (unless I missed it). I consider them to be just as big of a threat as the Cards.

 

Yeah, I've been thinking of them as the favorites.

[SportsGuy]

Yea, I think Houston stands out as an obvious favorite.

 

Plenty of ways to go if you don't sign Davis but I don't trust the Orioles to pick any of the good ones.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Jonathan's scenario of Toronto, and Boston as possibilities makes me want to hurl.

[SportsGuy]

There are tons of teams that are possibilities.

 

I personally don't care where Davis ends up as long as the Orioles have a good offseason.

[Mackus]

I strongly disagree with the thesis of the article.  5/$100M is a way low estimate for Davis.  If that's all he costs, then there will be a dozen or more teams bidding for him, which of course means that won't be all he costs.

 

6/$132M minimum, IMO.  If it stays under 6/$150M, then I think he stays in Baltimore.

[SportsGuy]

I strongly disagree with the thesis of the article.  5/$100M is a way low estimate for Davis.  If that's all he costs, then there will be a dozen or more teams bidding for him, which of course means that won't be all he costs.

 

6/$132M minimum, IMO.  If it stays under 6/$150M, then I think he stays in Baltimore.

5/100 is what FanGraphs' projections have him at.

 

I agree that he gets a lot more.

[FFH]

I strongly disagree with the thesis of the article.  5/$100M is a way low estimate for Davis.  If that's all he costs, then there will be a dozen or more teams bidding for him, which of course means that won't be all he costs.

 

6/$132M minimum, IMO.  If it stays under 6/$150M, then I think he stays in Baltimore.

I hope you are wrong about the total dollars, and right that he stays in Baltimore.

I could see one argument against a higher amount being his production inconsistency - although the argument probably won't be strong enough against Boras.  

[Matt_P]

Jonathan's scenario of Toronto, and Boston as possibilities makes me want to hurl.

 

Toronto wouldn't surprise me. Boston would.

[Mackus]

5/100 is what FanGraphs' projections have him at.

 

I agree that he gets a lot more.

 

No, that's not a FanGraphs projection.  That was FanGraphs crowd-sourcing, not what the writers there actually projected. 

 

As that Cameron chat reply you linked in that other thread said, crowd-sourced projected contracts will pretty much always predict far lower deals than players end up signing for.  Because players don't sign for a deal in the middle of the pack, they take the top deal.  I'd be interested in seeing what higher percentiles of the FanGraphs crowd-sourcing yielded.  Rather than look at the median deal, I bet a 85th or 90th percentile of the estimated contracts would better reflect what will end up happening.

[Matt_P]

No, that's not a FanGraphs projection.  That was FanGraphs crowd-sourcing, not what the writers there actually projected. 

 

As that Cameron chat reply you linked in that other thread said, crowd-sourced projected contracts will pretty much always predict far lower deals than players end up signing for.  Because players don't sign for a deal in the middle of the pack, they take the top deal.  I'd be interested in seeing what higher percentiles of the FanGraphs crowd-sourcing yielded.  Rather than look at the median deal, I bet a 85th or 90th percentile of the estimated contracts would better reflect what will end up happening.

 

That's not how crowd sourcing works. With large enough crowds, your crazy people at one end counteract your crazy people at another end. That's why using crowd sourcing to predict the amount of jellybeans in a container works.

 

If you use just the top 20%, then you get all the crazy people. That doesn't help any. What does help is finding a factor to predict how much the crowdsourced guess is wrong by in order to counteract bias.

[Mackus]

That's not how crowd sourcing works. With large enough crowds, your crazy people at one end counteract your crazy people at another end. That's why using crowd sourcing to predict the amount of jellybeans in a container works.

 

If you use just the top 20%, then you get all the crazy people. That doesn't help any. What does help is finding a factor to predict how much the crowdsourced guess is wrong by in order to counteract bias.

 

I'm saying crowd-sourcing is a poor method for predicting contracts because the player doesn't take the most middle of the pack offer.  He takes the highest.

 

It doesn't really matter what is the average of what all 30 GMs think Davis should get paid or would be willing to pay him.  It only matters what the one guy who thinks he should get paid the most thinks he should get paid. 

 

The higher end is more likely to be accurate in this sort of thing.  Crowd sourcing is good for when there is an expected range that a result could fall in.  That's not really the case with free agent contracts.

[Matt_P]

I'm saying crowd-sourcing is a poor method for predicting contracts because the player doesn't take the most middle of the pack offer.  He takes the highest.

 

It doesn't really matter what is the average of what all 30 GMs think Davis should get paid or would be willing to pay him.  It only matters what the one guy who thinks he should get paid the most thinks he should get paid. 

 

The higher end is more likely to be accurate in this sort of thing.  Crowd sourcing is good for when there is an expected range that a result could fall in.  That's not really the case with free agent contracts.

 

I agree with your first two points. I disagree with your third point.

 

I would try to multiply the actual average guess by a factor of something to figure out the real guess. I imagine Fangraphs could figure out reasonably easily whether the 80% percentile or a factor method is more accurate.

[Mackus]

Isn't that basically the same thing?  Bell curves are a bit finer approximation than a constant slope line would be, but is there really much  difference between looking at a 80th percentile approximation over the 50th versus increasing the 50th percentile approximation by 20-30%?

 

Either way, you're looking at something above the median projection.

[RShack]

Isn't that basically the same thing?  Bell curves are a bit finer approximation than a constant slope line would be, but is there really much  difference between looking at a 80th percentile approximation over the 50th versus increasing the 50th percentile approximation by 20-30%?

 

Either way, you're looking at something above the median projection.

 

So, it could be crowd-sourcing modulo something, right?

[Matt_P]

Isn't that basically the same thing?  Bell curves are a bit finer approximation than a constant slope line would be, but is there really much  difference between looking at a 80th percentile approximation over the 50th versus increasing the 50th percentile approximation by 20-30%?

 

Either way, you're looking at something above the median projection.

 

Basically the same thing.

 

I guess it depends on whether you were using mean or median. If you're using median then it will be more different then if you're using mean. I presumed you were using medians but could be mistaken.

[DJ MC]

That's not how crowd sourcing works. With large enough crowds, your crazy people at one end counteract your crazy people at another end. That's why using crowd sourcing to predict the amount of jellybeans in a container works.

 

If you use just the top 20%, then you get all the crazy people. That doesn't help any. What does help is finding a factor to predict how much the crowdsourced guess is wrong by in order to counteract bias.

 

This is a professional sports free-agent market. The "crazy people" are the ones making the offers.

[FlavaDave10]

Jonathan's scenario of Toronto, and Boston as possibilities makes me want to hurl.

 

Toronto would surprise me a bit considering their needs in the rotation. 

[SportsGuy]

http://espn.go.com/m...king-free-agent