333 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

The Thunder are only favored because of home court advantage. If Miami had home court advantage they would be favored. It's that tight. Again, Miami in wins the series. Gonna change it to 6 instead of 7. Split the first 2 games, Miami gets 2 of 3 at home and take game 6 on the road.


And what was mentioned above is why Miami will win. They have to win. It's their time to win. OKC's window is much larger.

I'm no expert on NBA series betting lines in terms of what home court means, but it seems like the series prices are more than just what home court would represent.

So I guess you're buying into what LeBron did the last two games when he responded to the pressure and think that pressure will be a catalyst for him and the Heat?

[mweb08]

The Thunder should win this series because they're the better team in terms of on paper and how well they play together. Plus, they are at least as well coached as the Heat.

But as I've said, the best team doesn't always win. The pressure and urgency will come into play, but that could favor either team. Experience favors the Heat.

Then's there's just a lot of variation in terms of player's performances, how match-ups affect things, how coaching strategy affects things, luck, and of course the refs.

[Adam Wolff]

I'm actually rooting for the Heat, despite actually liking the Thunder a lot. I'm SO sick of hearing about Lebron choking and not being able to do this or that. I don't even like him as a player, but I want him to win because he's one of the best and it's such an annoying thing to hear about all the time.

[mweb08]

Comparing the rosters using a 1-10 rating system:

PG: Chalmers: 5 Westbrook: 9
SG: Wade: 8.75 Thabo: 4.5
F: James: 10 Durant: 9.75
F: Battier: 4.5 Ibaka: 7
C: Bosh: 8.5 Perkins: 6

Miller: 4.5 Harden: 8.5
Haslem: 4.5 Collison: 4.5
Anthony: 4 Fisher: 3.5
Cole: 3 Mohammed: 3.5
Jones: 4 Cook: 3.5
Turiaf: 3.5


Big 3's are even.
Starting lineup has a .5 edge to the Heat.
The top 3 bench players favor the Thunder by 3.5.

So that's an overall edge to the Thunder by 3.

There's a few more bench players listed who will play some, none of which are good or will likely play much. The Heat will probably use the additional players more than the Thunder, which favors the Thunder.

I know some will think I'm rating Wade too low, and normally that's be true, but he's playing through a knee injury and his play hasn't been at it's normal level these playoffs.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Comparing the rosters using a 1-10 rating system:

PG: Chalmers: 5 Westbrook: 9
SG: Wade: 8.75 Thabo: 4.5
F: James: 10 Durant: 9.75
F: Battier: 4.5 Ibaka: 7
C: Bosh: 8.5 Perkins: 6

Miller: 4.5 Harden: 8.5
Haslem: 4.5 Collison: 4.5
Anthony: 4 Fisher: 3.5
Cole: 3 Mohammed: 3.5
Jones: 4 Cook: 3.5
Turiaf: 3.5


Big 3's are even.
Starting lineup has a .5 edge to the Heat.
The top 3 bench players favor the Thunder by 3.5.

So that's an overall edge to the Thunder by 3.

There's a few more bench players listed who will play some, none of which are good or will likely play much. The Heat will probably use the additional players more than the Thunder, which favors the Thunder.

I know some will think I'm rating Wade too low, and normally that's be true, but he's playing through a knee injury and his play hasn't been at it's normal level these playoffs.

I'll give $5 to anyone who gets into a 5 page debate with mweb over him giving Joel Anthony a "4" instead of a "3.75"

[mweb08]

I don't care all that much about Joel Anthony, but here's a topic I like to debate: http://proxy.espn.go... ... vin-durant

A good analysis of James vs Durant in different clutch situations.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'll give $5 to anyone who gets into a 5 page debate with mweb over him giving Joel Anthony a "4" instead of a "3.75"

Ha! I was checking out the OKC thread, and mweb's comments comparison of the Thunder and Miami back in February. Pretty much a match to his comments here.

Appreciate the insight all of you guys have provided to this section. Has definitely helped increase my interest.

Should be a great Finals, the NBA has to be ecstatic. Love to see it go the full 7 games, with decision in doubt, late in the 4th.

[mweb08]

I'll give $5 to anyone who gets into a 5 page debate with mweb over him giving Joel Anthony a "4" instead of a "3.75"

Ha! I was checking out the OKC thread, and mweb's comments comparison of the Thunder and Miami back in February. Pretty much a match to his comments here.

Appreciate the insight all of you guys have provided to this section. Has definitely helped increase my interest.

Should be a great Finals, the NBA has to be ecstatic. Love to see it go the full 7 games, with decision in doubt, late in the 4th.

The biggest difference between now and then is that Wade is fighting through an injury and not playing like himself.

Another difference is that the Thunder have simply stepped up their play.

[mweb08]

I'll go with the Thunder in 6, but I can very easily seeing the Heat win.

Unless Wade returns to form, James will very likely need to easily win his match-up with Durant for them to win. That's a tough challenge, but one he is capable of.

[bnickle]

The Thunder are only favored because of home court advantage. If Miami had home court advantage they would be favored. It's that tight. Again, Miami in wins the series. Gonna change it to 6 instead of 7. Split the first 2 games, Miami gets 2 of 3 at home and take game 6 on the road.


And what was mentioned above is why Miami will win. They have to win. It's their time to win. OKC's window is much larger.

I'm no expert on NBA series betting lines in terms of what home court means, but it seems like the series prices are more than just what home court would represent.

So I guess you're buying into what LeBron did the last two games when he responded to the pressure and think that pressure will be a catalyst for him and the Heat?

I think LeBron will be fine outside of crunch time situations. I still think he lets his nerves get to him and effect his play at times but that's not uncommon for a lot of athletes. I still don;t think he particularly wants those really high pressure moments but it might not end up mattering.

[JeffLong]

Effective usage of a hashtag:

https://twitter.com/...701984439021568

[mweb08]

I'm no expert on NBA series betting lines in terms of what home court means, but it seems like the series prices are more than just what home court would represent.

So I guess you're buying into what LeBron did the last two games when he responded to the pressure and think that pressure will be a catalyst for him and the Heat?

I think LeBron will be fine outside of crunch time situations. I still think he lets his nerves get to him and effect his play at times but that's not uncommon for a lot of athletes. I still don;t think he particularly wants those really high pressure moments but it might not end up mattering.

Well he's generally been fine in crunch time moments. See the link I posted.

[SportsGuy]

Miami is on fire from 3.

[mweb08]

Perkins shouldn't play much when the Heat have only 1 big playing. He's not helping much on either side of the court. He's great against big men who post up, but the Heat don't do much of that.

[SportsGuy]

Miami in 6 will be my final prediction..

I was "Talking" to MWeb about this on Facebook, and I'm torn on who to root for. I've been in love with Durant for years, but I really want to see LeBron win a title, and especially avoid the irrational hatred if they lose.

I'll decide before tip off I guess.

I'm in the same boat. This Thunder team is fun to watch and Durant is easy to root for. OTOH, I would like to see LeBron win as well.

[mweb08]

Well if Battier and Chalmers are going to play anywhere close to this level, that would kill my and others thought that OKC's most significant advantage is after the big 3's.

Of course, I wouldn't expect this to continue.

[SportsGuy]

Well if Battier and Chalmers are going to play anywhere close to this level, that would kill my and others thought that OKC's most significant advantage is after the big 3's.

Of course, I wouldn't expect this to continue.

Neither would I but role players generally play better at home so they could be in for some good games if the confidence stays high.

[JeffLong]

Not exactly sure why that was a double technical...

[mweb08]

Not exactly sure why that was a double technical...

Ditto.

[JeffLong]

Ditto.

Kinda just looked like Westbrook was a douche.