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BSL: The OF Market


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#1 JeffLong

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Posted 08 December 2014 - 10:27 PM

http://baltimorespor...rhyped-options/

 


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#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 December 2014 - 10:53 PM

It feels like if you wanted to get Aoki done, you could make it a priority and push that through.

I can see writing off Morse as an OF, but I wouldn't write him off as a DH option (that gets occasional time in the OF).

I'm not opposed to Rasmus either.

 

Would figure that the O's are waiting things out, and seeing who they can get at the price they really want.... and also seeing if an option they prefer is available to them via trade.



#3 Icterus galbula

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Posted 08 December 2014 - 11:10 PM

I wouldn't want to put trust in him being a contributor, but on your "other FA" section I wouldn't mind buying low on Corey Hart and seeing if there is something in there to resurrect.

#4 FFH

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:08 AM

These are interesting conjectures in this article. 

This year, it really it a roll of the dice...I wonder if DD does a 50/50 - one FA and one trade.



#5 Matt_P

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:16 AM

I think the problem that the Os have is that since they tendered all of their players they're at between $105-$110M in payroll. Norris, De Aza and Matusz are expected to account for about 16 to 18 million of that total. Aoki and Morse should cost about $16 to $18M so if the Os can trade the three players mentioned above it would be a wash money-wise. But can they get prospects in return for those three guys?

 

Until the Os figure out what they're doing with those three players they're going to be tentative in the free agency market. The Os really would be better off making trades.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:50 AM

Yeah, tendering all of those guys is an act that says they aren't worried about the payroll, but that seems unlikely given the recent history of the team and what expectations most have.

 

If we can't even afford to make a few relatively small signings like Aoki or Morse to add to the players that are already here, then tendering Matusz and Hunter and perhaps even De Aza and not more aggressively looking to deal Norris or even Davis is a big time mistake.  I think Duquette's on top of things, so I kind of doubt that he's so cash strapped that he can't add a couple mid-level guys without shedding other salary.  But that's just a guess, or a hope.



#7 JeffLong

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:50 AM

I think the problem that the Os have is that since they tendered all of their players they're at between $105-$110M in payroll. Norris, De Aza and Matusz are expected to account for about 16 to 18 million of that total. Aoki and Morse should cost about $16 to $18M so if the Os can trade the three players mentioned above it would be a wash money-wise. But can they get prospects in return for those three guys?

 

Until the Os figure out what they're doing with those three players they're going to be tentative in the free agency market. The Os really would be better off making trades.

 

Yeah, I think that's a fair point.

 

I suspect that Matusz and/or Norris get moved this offseason. I think De Aza stays. I wouldn't hate it if the O's lined up with Aoki in RF, Jones in CF, and a De Aza/Pearce platoon in LF (with Pearce DHing or playing 1B against lefties).


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#8 fishteacher

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 12:46 PM

It feels like if you wanted to get Aoki done, you could make it a priority and push that through.

I can see writing off Morse as an OF, but I wouldn't write him off as a DH option (that gets occasional time in the OF).

I'm not opposed to Rasmus either.

 

Would figure that the O's are waiting things out, and seeing who they can get at the price they really want.... and also seeing if an option they prefer is available to them via trade.

I'm not a fan of any of these options...not that they're not good ideas given the alternatives, but damn...

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#9 SportsGuy

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:46 PM

Sign Rasmus.

At least he brings upside and he isn't that old.

#10 clapdiddy

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Posted 09 December 2014 - 10:55 PM

How would you feel if we just add Rasmus and Gomes?



#11 Mackus

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Posted 10 December 2014 - 09:53 AM

I'd prefer Rasmus to Byrd or Aoki.  I like the 3 in that order.  I have very little interest in Aoki on a multi-year deal.

 

I wonder what our scouts think of Rasmus' defense.  His defensive metrics have fluctuated as wildly as his offensive performance.  By UZR/150, he's had years of -15, +15, 0, -10, -8, +14.  Utterly baffling.  Those are all in CF, so I imagine he'd be fine in a corner (his arm seems to be a positive, so I assume RF).

 

And I'm sold on Morse.  Just sign him.  2/$20M.  He's very likely to match Cruz for the next two years IMO.  not to mach what Cruz gave us, but to match what he would give us if we had resigned him.  Little less raw power, but higher AVG and OBP.

 

I'm also not as down on Byrd as everyone else, I think he'd be a good addition.  However, I'd prefer to sign Rasmus and see how he does.  Odds are if Rasmus stinks, which is entirely possible, that Byrd would still be available in trade and we could just make a move for him, or someone similar, during the season.



#12 Mackus

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Posted 10 December 2014 - 09:56 AM

How would you feel if we just add Rasmus and Gomes?

 

Very meh on Gomes.  I'd take him over Young I suppose, but I have zero interest if the plan is to give him more than the short half of a platoon (or if his salary dictates more time than that).

 

I'm cool with Rasmus, though would prefer a trade for Crawford and a boatload of cash.



#13 dude

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Posted 10 December 2014 - 06:58 PM

..... would prefer a trade for Crawford and a boatload of cash.

 curious why Jeff didn't include Crawford on the list.  he should be one of the obvious guys.

 

If LAD trades Kemp and Crawford, they set up a Ethier/VanSlyke platoon in LF, Pederson in CF and Puig in RF.....



#14 FFH

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 12:34 AM

curious why Jeff didn't include Crawford on the list. &  he should be one of the obvious guys.

If LAD trades Kemp and Crawford, they set up a Ethier/VanSlyke platoon in LF, Pederson in CF and Puig in RF.....


The more things move along, the more I think that the Dodgers are trying to keep Crawford.
I think they're more interested in moving Ethier now that they managed to offload Kemp.

For me, Rasmus/Morse would be ideal, although with both their is a pretty good chance you don't get investment return due to injury.

The one thing I'm curious about is how some of these other teams are managing to make the moves they are making. The Marlins were operating at a loss last year with only a 47 M hit in player salary, but they resign Stanton to that ridiculous contract?

Then they find a way to be in on Dee Gordon - who knew he was available?



#15 Mackus

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 09:25 AM

The more things move along, the more I think that the Dodgers are trying to keep Crawford.
I think they're more interested in moving Ethier now that they managed to offload Kemp.

 

If it costs them the same amount to move each of them, then of course they'd prefer Crawford.  He's still performing at a decently high level.  I think they'd have to eat almost $35M of Ethier's deal to move him, and maybe more.  He's still owed 3/$56M.  Crawford is owed 3/$62.5M.  I think they may be able to find a taker on Crawford for as low as $20M, maybe $25M.



#16 clapdiddy

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 10:22 AM

Encina tweeted that the O's might be interested in Cabrera on a 3-year deal if he's going to settle for one.



#17 bnickle

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 10:28 AM

Even though it costs a pick Melky is their best option in the OF right now. They still should add Morse too, though they wont. Pearce will DH vs righties. Delmon vs lefties while Pearce will take De Aza's ABs.



#18 Mackus

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 10:38 AM

I Cabrera only requires a 3-year deal, then he's the best option.  It'll be annoying having to root for him, but he's likely enough to hit that you'd have to make that move even if it costs you your 1st round pick.  We'll get a pick somewhere in the mid 30s from Cruz, so losing the #26 isn't as painful as it'd be without that other pick to offset it a bit.

 

I think it's unlikely that Melky settles for a deal that makes him an attractive enough option, though.  He'll get 4/$52M minimum, IMO.  I'd strongly prefer to sign Rasmus or trade for Snider or any of a variety of other options.



#19 Mackus

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 10:40 AM

Even though it costs a pick Melky is their best option in the OF right now. They still should add Morse too, though they wont. Pearce will DH vs righties. Delmon vs lefties while Pearce will take De Aza's ABs.

 

If they are being anal about Morse because they are still mad that he played through an injury in 2013, I'll be really upset.  That sort of petty bullshit is what costs you opportunities to make smart moves.  Any ill will towards Morse is a direct failing by whomever is valuing that feeling over improving the team.  Similarly, if Morse's agent is holding ill will towards the Orioles because of the Balfour deal, that's a horrible job by him of helping his client.

 

If a Morse deal doesn't get made because of anything other than dollars and years, I'll be really upset.



#20 JeffLong

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Posted 12 December 2014 - 01:50 PM

If they are being anal about Morse because they are still mad that he played through an injury in 2013, I'll be really upset.  That sort of petty bullshit is what costs you opportunities to make smart moves.  Any ill will towards Morse is a direct failing by whomever is valuing that feeling over improving the team.  Similarly, if Morse's agent is holding ill will towards the Orioles because of the Balfour deal, that's a horrible job by him of helping his client.

 

If a Morse deal doesn't get made because of anything other than dollars and years, I'll be really upset.

 

I think that's a perfectly reasonable reason to be wary of bringing him in.

 

Clearly put himself ahead of the team ... and ultimately, not sure you want that kind of attitude/approach in the locker room. Certainly wouldn't sit well with many of the players. There are other equivalent options that'll cost less and haven't had issues with the club that would be preferable.


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