Here's where things stand at this moment as far as I can tell:
- The Arizona Board of Regents have a meeting later today to discuss athletics issues. The AZ board actually oversees both Arizona and Arizona State (as well as Northern Arizona), and per a couple sources it sounds like the board wants the two schools to stick together, wherever that may be. That's big, because it's believed ASU is much more inclined to stay in the Pac. If Arizona left for the Big 12 alone, the conference could theoretically survive. If both schools go, probably not.
- There's been little sound coming out of Utah. The sense is they strongly prefer to remain part of the Pac-12, since they've won 2 straight conference titles and would be well positioned to land an automatic berth once the expanded CFP begins next year. They also have been happy with the Pac for non-sports reasons....since joining they have become AAU members and have seen their research investment money jump significantly. There's concern the less academic-focused Big 12 could harm that progress. Still, sense is if both Arizona schools go, Utah would have little choice but to join them.
- UW scheduled a short-notice board meeting for tonight. Little details on the topic, but I think we can guess.
- The Big Ten has set its sights on Oregon and Washington. The presidents have authorized Tony Pettite to explore adding them. The conference already did extensive vetting of them last year, and decided to pass because the networks did not want to pay pro rata to add them. That is certainly still the case, but what has likely changed is that OR/WA would now be much more willing to come in at a partial share than they were before. Whether there is a meeting point between what OR/WA would accept and what the networks would pay remains to be seen....if we even get that far. The Big Ten will not make the first move. They'll only act on OR/WA if the Arizona schools and Utah leave, essentially killing the conference.
- Doesn't sound like there is any serious talk on the Big Ten adding Cal and Stanford. Despite their presence in a large market, the networks see little value in them, even if they took a partial share like OR/WA. The talk around them seemed to be that they appealed to the Big Ten for non-monetary reasons. They're elite academic schools, in the shadow of Silicon Valley (where a lot of Big Ten alumni are) and it is believed having six West Coast schools opens up scheduling options that could result in fewer trips west for the current members, versus just 2 or 4 west coast schools. But as is typically the case, money probably wins, and the Bay Area schools could be left out.
- It sounds like adding OR/WA could require another TV partner to join in the mix, which seems odd to me. I would figure between Fox, NBC, CBS, FS1, BTN and Peacock, they could absorb the extra game inventory two new schools could bring. But maybe there just isn't enough money there for even partial shares, so they have to find someone else. (how ironic would it be if it were Apple?)
- Nothing new on FSU/ACC. It seems like the Seminoles' hissy fit in their trustees meeting yesterday was all for show. It is not apparent right now that even if they were to try and escape the ACC's grant of rights that they would have a landing spot. The Big Ten is focused west right now. And if the ACC ever does come undone it is thought the B1G would prefer UVA, UNC, and maybe Miami over FSU. The SEC apparently has no interest in FSU at all.
That's it for now. The next 24 or so hours are gonna be huge. By end of day Friday the fate of several conferences and schools could be largely determined.
Or not.
