7 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Baltimore Orioles arrive in Tampa Bay having lost 5 consecutive games, 3 straight series, and their RF for the next 3-4 weeks. They also arrive in Tampa Bay, still tied with the Rays on top of the American League East at 29-22.

1) Wieters sported a .188 average (18 for 96), and .605 OPS in May. The O’s offense (9th in runs, 21st in On-base %, and 6th in Slugging) has been struggling lately. Things will not get easier with Markakis out of action for the next few weeks. It is a new Month, and time for Wieters to again provide production in the middle of the lineup.

2) Betemit’s OPS was .833 going into May 8th. Going into tomorrow, that has dropped to .704. He has never hit lefties well, and is struggling mightily (.484 OPS, 46 ab’s) vs. Southpaws this year. The Rays are starting two lefties (Price tomorrow, Moore on Sunday) in this series. He needs to be out of the lineup in both of those games. With splits so disparate, why not abandon switch-hitting, and try batting lefty vs. lefties?

3) Reynolds returned for the Toronto series and was 3 for 10, with a double, 3 rbi, 3 bb’s, and 4 k’s. Last year he had 5 different Months with at-least 5 homers, including 3 Months with 8. A couple of big flies from him over the weekend would provide the lineup a needed lift.

4) While Avery could come back up to replace a player on the DL, it does not appear that he will. So who does? I would vote for adding L.J. Hoes to the 40 man (replacing Zach Phillips), and bringing him up to play LF, with Chavez moving to RF. Aside from that, you could give Flaherty additional time in RF, or you could play Tolleson more in LF, with Chavez again moving to RF.

4a) Or if you wanted to get ‘wild’, you could consider playing Reynolds in LF. That would not be my first choice in Tampa Bay.

5) Chen is starting tomorrow night for the Birds. After getting knocked around by the Nationals, I was pleased to see him rebound with a quality outing vs. KC. For the year, Chen is 4-1, with a 3.31 era. In his 54.1 innings, he has allowed 53 hits, 6 hr’s, 18 bb’s, with 42 k’s. His OPS against is .719, and his G/F is 0.56. Four of the 6 hr’s he has allowed have come in the last 3 starts. I’d like to see him keep the ball in the park tomorrow. If you want to stay competitive throughout a season (and avoid prolonged losing streaks), you need your starting pitchers to give you an opportunity to win. Chen has done that in 8 of his 9 starts so far. He needs to do that again tomorrow.

6) Showalter seems to like having Andino lead-off, especially against LHP. I’m sure that the rationale is that even though Andino has a .311 OBP overall, he has a .326 OBP vs. LHP. If Andino is leading off this weekend, he has to come up with some with quality ab’s. His modest 6 game hitting streak ended Wednesday.

7) Matusz’s last outing vs. KC was ho-hum. Not great, not horrible. Matusz has had a couple of high quality outings (at New York, vs. Boston), and generally has been fairly solid. In 6 of his 10 starts, he has gone at-least 5.2 ip, and allowed 4 er or less. Not great, but competitive. In his last 3 starts, he has gone at-least 6 innings each time, and allowed 3 er or less. After a lost 2011, I think these first two months of 2012 for Matusz were getting his feet back under him. That has been achieved, and there has been some progress. Now in June, I want to see him take another step and raise his game further.

8) The bullpen was not over-used in Toronto, and was off today. The O’s are also off Monday. With that in-mind, the pen should be available for extended use throughout the weekend. Hopefully the starters are effective, and provide innings. However, if they problems, I won’t be opposed to Showalter showing a quick hook.

9) Chavez came off the DL in Toronto, and was 0 for 5 in his ab’s vs. the Jays, not looking any better than he did in his first 60 ab’s with the Birds. I continue to remind myself that Chavez was pretty useful with Texas last year (.749 OPS, 256 ab’s, 18 xbh’s). With Markakis out, it seems likely he will get extended time these next few weeks. I’ll deal with a struggling bat, if he provides some superior defense.

10) Arrieta will start Sunday. His start Tuesday in Toronto was poor, and his era (5.37) looks bad as well. Beyond his era, Arrieta’s peripheral numbers are still solid. Arrieta’s limited fastball command is still an issue, and Tampa Bay’s typically patient lineup will pose a challenge. Lefties have hit Arrieta pretty well, especially for power this year. Keeping runners off in-front of Joyce, Pena, Zobrist, and Scott will be big. This will be Arrieta’s 2nd start vs. Tampa Bay this year, after being smacked around for 10 hits allowed in 3.2 innings in Baltimore 5/13.

Projected Pitchers:
6/1: Chen vs. Price (LHP)
6/2: Matusz vs. Hellickson
6/3: Arrieta vs. Moore (LHP)

Price: 6-3, 2.71 era, 66.1 ip, 62 hits, 5 hr’s, 21 bb’s, 57 k’s, .649 OPS against, 1.18 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/456034/

Hellickson: 4-1, 2.83 era, 63.2 ip, 57 hits, 10 hr’s, 21 bb’s, 41 k’s, .713 OPS ag, 0.71 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/476451/

Moore: 1-5, 4.76 era, 56.2 ip, 55 hits, 9 hr’s, 28 bb’s, 58 k’s, .766 OPS against, 0.62 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texas...pitcher/519043/

C: Lobaton 16 ab’s
1st: Pena .727 OPS
2nd: Rhymes .646 OPS
SS: Johnson .700 OPS
3rd: Sutton 29 ab’s
LF: Joyce .944 OPS
CF: Upton .761 OPS
RF: Zobrist .737 OPS
DH: Scott .760 OPS

Bench: Molina, Matsui, Thompson, Rodriguez
Rotation: Price, Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, Moore
Bullpen: Rodney, McGee, Peralta, Howell, Badenhop, Davis, Ramos

Current Ranks:

Tampa Bay
Runs: 17th
Batting Average: 26th
On Base: 13th
Slugging: 17th
ERA: 7th
Quality Starts: 19th
WHIP: 11th
BAA: 8th

Baltimore
Runs: 9th
Batting Average: 17th
On Base: 21st
Slugging: 6th
ERA: 11th
Quality Starts: 21st
WHIP: 13th
BAA: 16th

[Luke Jackson]

I'm guessing that the Orioles did not envision Betemit playing so much against lefties, but the injuries have meant that Buck doesn't have many other options. Tolleson? Bill Hall? Flaherty? Nick Johnson? Not exactly overflowing with options. The other problem is that Chris Davis also has issues vs. LHP so two of your 1B/DH/3B options have platoon problems and there isn't much of a Plan B. Perhaps Reynolds' return will help out vs. LHP.

Wieters has been given a pass from fans for his extended slump, and deservedly so. (And his AB's during the slump are indicative of a player in a deep funk.) However, like Chris said, Wieters needs to produce with Nick out of the lineup for a month.

Arrieta's LOB% is 61%, which is towards the very bottom of MLB starters (fifth-worst at last check). Is it bad luck or is he having major problems working out if the stretch? Is he having more problems commanding his stuff out of the stretch than from in the windup? Interested in people's thoughts on that.

If we all stick together, I bet we can make it through a month's worth of Endy Chavez plate appearances. It'll be pretty rough, which is why we need to stick together.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Arrieta's LOB% is 61%, which is towards the very bottom of MLB starters (fifth-worst at last check). Is it bad luck or is he having major problems working out if the stretch? Is he having more problems commanding his stuff out of the stretch than from in the windup? Interested in people's thoughts on that.

If we all stick together, I bet we can make it through a month's worth of Endy Chavez plate appearances. It'll be pretty rough, which is why we need to stick together.

I've noticed Arrieta's problems out of the stretch, but this is the first time I've seen the LOB %. Pretty interesting, and certainly something to watch. Part of it I have attributed to Arrieta attempting to be overly perfect once he faces a little adversity. Arrieta has seemingly confirmed that, with his own comments.

Pretty great line about Chavez.

[Slappy]

Has there ever been a player that has abandoned switch hitting at the major league level? I can't think of one off the top of my head.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The O's lost 5-0 in Tampa Bay, with all of the Rays scoring coming in the bottom of the 1st. With the O's loss, Baltimore has lost 6 games in a row, and falls 1 game behind Tampa at 29-23 overall.

The Good:

1) As bad as the 1st was, Chen was able rebound and provide some effective innings.

2) Heads up play from Hardy to see Pena had hesitated on coming home, and getting the Tampa Bay 1st baseman at the plate.

3) Wieters singled into RF for the O's first hit in the 5th. He added a 2nd hit in the 9th.

4) Hall walked in the 6th. He had struck out earlier, but it was also a good long ab.

5) Andino also walked in the 6th.

6) Tolleson followed the Hall and Andino walks in the 6th, with a line drive single to LF to load the bases.

7) Patton had a nice 1.1 ip of relief.

8) Jones made a nice running catch to end the Rays 8th. He also had 2 hits.

9) Despite feeling out of the game early on, I'm pleased that the O's put a lid on the Rays scoring, and did wind-up giving themselves multiple opportunities as the game progressed.

The Bad:

1) Chen walked Rodriguez to lead off the 3rd, and had 4 walks overall.

2) Reynolds hit into a double play in the 7th, and struck out with the bases loaded in the 9th, going 0 for 4 overall.

3) Davis was 0 for 4.

4) Betemit was 0 for 3.

The Ugly:

1) By the end of the 1st, it felt as if O's were out of the game. That was pretty horrible, and deflating. Chen went full with Pena to lead off the game. Pena would double over Hall, after having shown bunt. Pena would advance to 3rd, on Chen's wild pitch. Chen left a pitch over the middle of the plate to Scott, which Scott served into CF for a 2 run single. Matsui tattooed a shot to deep RF for a 2 run shot, and a 5-0 Tampa Bay lead. That was followed by back-to-back walks to the 8th, and 9th hitters in the Rays lineup.

Read back, the Tampa Bay 1st went like this: Double. Wild pitch. FC, out at the plate. Single. Bunt single. Single. Sac bunt. 2 run HR. Walk. Walk. K. It was not like Chen was being completely knocked around (there were several hard hits, but it was the bunts that seemed to unnerve him), but his control was not sharp, and the result was the same. With Price being spotted a 5 run advantage, it felt like the game could have been called before the 2nd inning began.

2) With the O's still down 5-0 in the 6th, Hardy batted with the bases loaded and 1 out. He flew out deep to CF on what should have been a sac fly. Tolleson was thrown out at 2nd, as he tried to advance. This prevented the sac fly, and the worst part was that Jones did not get the chance to bat with runners on base.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Baltimore Orioles dropped a 8-4 decision in Tampa Bay, again falling a game behind the Rays. Now 30-24 on the year, the the O's have lost 4 consecutive series. After an off day tomorrow, the O's will begin a 3 game series in Boston.

The Good:

1) Arrieta started the game with 2 quick innings ( 25 total pitches). In the 2nd, he struck out Zobrist on a fastball up and away. He would retire Scott on a big breaking slow curve. After the Rays went up 2-1 in the 4th, Arrieta was able to retire Zobrist and Scott to end the inning.

2) Hardy had the O's first hit, going opposite field with a single to RF in the 1st. He had a good play to get Scott at 1st in the 6th. He added another hit in the 7th. He had a 3rd hit, on an infield single, in the 9th.

3) Wieters started the 2nd with a bomb to deep LF. It was his first HR since 5/13, and first HR batting RH this year. In the 3rd, he followed the HR with a single up the middle. He received the non-intentional intentional walk in the 5th. He had a 3rd hit, with his RBI single in the 9th.

4) Reynolds singled against the shift in the 2nd. In the 3rd, he had a nice diving stop towards 2nd on the Molina grounder. Reynolds came through with a 2 out hit in the 5th, lining to LF, and knocking Chavez to tie the game at 2. He had a good reach on a throw from Hardy in the 6th. In the 8th, Reynolds went deep to LF for his 3rd HR.

5) Pearce flew out to RF in his first AB, advancing Reynolds to 3rd. He singled to RF in the 6th for his first O's hit.

6) Tapping towards 1st base in the 3rd, Jones reached base by hustling down the line.

7) Nice ab from Tolleson in the 4th, working a walk.

8) Strong defensive play from Chavez in the 5th, running down a drive from Matsui in LCF.

9) Patton looked good in his 1.1 ip.

10) Andino smacked a double to deep LCF in the 9th.

The Bad:

1) Arrieta walked Pena to start the 4th, the 3-2 pitch was a breaking ball that did not break. That was followed by a single from Upton. A wild pitch gave the Rays runners on 2nd, and 3rd with none out. Arrieta walked Rhymes, and Johnson with 1 out in the 5th. With 2 outs, he would walk Pena (maybe pitching around) to load the bases for Upton. Upton hit a 3-1 pitch down the LF line, knocking in 2 runs, and Arrieta out of the game. Another game, where Arrieta's worst enemy was Arrieta. His stuff is undeniable, but there have now been numerous games this year where Arrieta has been cruising, only to face some adversity (that he usually causes), and he ultimately collapses.

2) With runners at the corners and 1 out in the 2nd, Tolleson was not able to get contact against Moore. In the 6th, Tolleson hit into a double play. In the bottom half of the 6th, Tolleson was charged with an error at 3rd. In the 8th, Tolleson would k.

3) After being ahead in the count 3-1, Andino struck out to start the game, swinging at ball 4 out of the zone. With 2 out in the 2nd, and runners on the corners, Andino struck out again to end the inning. He would strike out for a 3rd time in the 6th.

4) Wieters attempted to pick Zobrist off of 3rd in the 6th. The throw would hit Zobrist in the back of the helmet, and bounce away. Zobrist would score, giving the Rays their 5th run. The throw was not horrible, but the outcome was one of the variables you have to consider, when making the decision to throw down.

5) Eveland and Ayala were not overly effective in relief.

6) What ever prevented Jones from batting in the 9th, can not be good.

The Ugly:

1) Horrible decision and throw from Jones on the Joyce fly-out in the 4th. MASN's Palmer was correct in stating that Arrieta needed to be backing up the throw.

[RichardZ]

Arrieta made the decision to back up home on that play. So he wasn't lazy, just stupid.

[SportsGuy]

Arrieta retires the first 9 batters and then has that outing? Really disappointing.

He may need to go to the pen.

I don't see much reason to send him to AAA.