BSL: Santander And Mountcastle Replaced By Kjerstad And Mayo?

https://baltimorespo...rstad-and-mayo/

I'm making the transition and I'm probably one of the bigger fans of Santander and Mountcastle.  The Game is always going to be about choices.

fwiw, I think Santander already knows he's not coming back and Mounty knows he getting dealt so once you cross those mental bridges, I think it's hard to go back.

I think it's probably been a little bit of a mental climb for both (HK, CM) this season liking the guys they are likely replacing on the roster.  Nobody has been confused.  The Orioles have telegraphed this for a while.

Kjerstad and Mayo don't have to carry the offense.  They'll likely hit 6/7 or 7/8 and they can move up over time based on performance.   LF looked too big for Kjerstad, but he seemed generally fine so RF shouldn't be much of a problem.  Mayo should develop into one of the better 1B.  Nobody owns a position forever but it should be the going in expectation and Players need patience at times and this place will flow too hot and cold.  Whatever.

What I'd like to see for Santander and Mountcastle.

Obviously, the Orioles get a quality pick (QO) for Santander.

Mountcastle is a GG caliber 1B that I think everyone will expect to see some power jump when you get away from the mentality of The Wall.

I've talked about DC a fair amount, but both Organizations are still tied together financially.  Nationals success benefits the Orioles and a Beltway Series would be the best thing for Baltimore Baseball so I want the Nationals to be good too.

Nationals have some good young players but could maybe use some roster stability.  There's been some discussion of Soto going back to DC, but that seems like Boras marketing.  If I'm the Nationals, I want the Players the Orioles don't want.  Santander would be a good fit in RF in their OF and getting Mountcastle at 1B would seem to be about the best they could reasonably do.  They could easily extend Mounty in that scenario.  DC also needs a 3B bridge to Brady House and a guy like Urias would make a lot of sense.

Nationals are still burning a ton of cash on guys not on the 40 so taking this approach would ramp up their competitiveness without dumb investments (read: Soto)

SS Abrams

CF Crews

LF Wood

RF Santander

1B Mountcastle

DH Winker/FA (bringing a guy like him back....I could see O'Hearn joining these guys, there)

3B Urias

2B Garcia

C  Ruiz

Maybe they add a starter and that's a competitive team.

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Santander and Mounty both get to stay in the Orioles' sphere.  They get to help build a culture they built in Baltimore 47 miles south. Relationships they have are still close and you can add to (market) a public rivalry between the clubs.

What do I want for Mountcastle and Urias?  Doesn't matter yet.  You don't need anything directly for the Orioles roster so you are working other angles either for next wave depth or you can leverage Nats prospects in another deal depending on what else the Orioles want to do.

I think Kjerstad can be a better all-around offensive player than Santander. In RF he's probably a downgrade and maybe a big one. Plus you lose his ability to hit RH. Just not sure $100M or whatever is worth it for Santander who had a career year and still hit about a billion popups. 

As down as I am on Mouncastle, I don't know I can plan on Mayo replacing anyone.

Santander and Mounty may be replaceable but Kjerstad and Mayo to a bigger extent, are unknowns.

If you provide a 134 OPS+ and 44 homers while staying healthy the whole year, you can pop out every single time you don't get on-base and I won't lose any sleep over it lol 

If you provide a 134 OPS+ and 44 homers while staying healthy the whole year, you can pop out every single time you don't get on-base and I won't lose any sleep over it lol 

Health has also been an issue over Santander's career, but he has stayed healthy the last 3 seasons.

What park adjustments do they do for OPS+? Single year or multi-year? The O's + numbers have felt somewhat inflated to me all year, like the adjustment is too much. Slater had a 675 OPS for the O's and they say that's a 100 OPS+.

Just quickly comparing BB-Ref to FG, seems like all the OPS+ numbers are 3-5 points higher than the wRC+ numbers.

So I hadn't really gone back and looked at any of this info, but Savant is awesome and you can break these things out by R/L and by year or 3 year.

2024 for RHB Once you hit the link you can start playing with all of the factors, but in 2023, OPaCY was a 94 (29th lowest) for RHB and in 2024 it was a 102.  The HR rates are very BLUE but the Hits, Doubles and Triples are all RED or very RED.  This is exactly what we discussed 2 years ago in the wall thread.

I think you're going to see so much variance especially in places like OPaCY because the dimensions are going to mess with you some and approach is going to impact which way you push the data.

What park adjustments do they do for OPS+? Single year or multi-year? The O's + numbers have felt somewhat inflated to me all year, like the adjustment is too much. Slater had a 675 OPS for the O's and they say that's a 100 OPS+.

Just quickly comparing BB-Ref to FG, seems like all the OPS+ numbers are 3-5 points higher than the wRC+ numbers.

Here BR seems to say they use 3 years now. In first link: "WE largely follow the method spelled out below. Historically, B-R has been using single-year park factors for recent years and 3-year park factors historically. We have changed that to now use 3-year factors by default for all years." Bottom link says how they adjust, using the park factors that are calculated in the first link.

Prior years could have been weird due to not having 3 years of new wall data, but now they have 3 years.

https://www.baseball...arkadjust.shtml

https://www.baseball...com/bullpen/OPS

It is crazy to me how Santander is just dismissed like he's a replacement level player when he's cranking out 44 bombs in a pitchers park, and many of them seemed to come when they were needed most.

I'm not saying they need to resign him but acting like Kjerstad is just going to replace that in his first full season isn't based in anything other than blind hope.

It is crazy to me how Santander is just dismissed like he's a replacement level player when he's cranking out 44 bombs in a pitchers park, and many of them seemed to come when they were needed most.

I'm not saying they need to resign him but acting like Kjerstad is just going to replace that in his first full season isn't based in anything other than blind hope.

Health has also been an issue over Santander's career, but he has stayed healthy the last 3 seasons.

It is crazy to me how Santander is just dismissed like he's a replacement level player when he's cranking out 44 bombs in a pitchers park, and many of them seemed to come when they were needed most.

I'm not saying they need to resign him but acting like Kjerstad is just going to replace that in his first full season isn't based in anything other than blind hope.

Blind? No. Kjerstad has an OPS over .900 in pro baseball.  .746 OPS in majors with a .351 OBP this year. He hasn't looked overmatched like some other prospects have.

Will he deliver 44 HR? Probably not. Can he equal an .814 OPS? I am confident he can.

IMO the only downsides to replacing Santander with Kjerstad are his defense and he's not a switch hitter.  Is that worth $100M? I don't know....glad I am not the one making that decision.

Blind? No. Kjerstad has an OPS over .900 in pro baseball. .746 OPS in majors with a .351 OBP this year. He hasn't looked overmatched like some other prospects have.

Will he deliver 44 HR? Probably not. Can he equal an .814 OPS? I am confident he can.

IMO the only downsides to replacing Santander with Kjerstad are his defense and he's not a switch hitter. Is that worth $100M? I don't know....glad I am not the one making that decision.

I believe in Kjerstad. I don't believe in him hitting 44 bombs and replicating Santander's production in his first full season. His sample size this year was tiny.

Nobody suggested Kjerstad was going to replace Santander's career year in 2025.

If he's not expected to do that (or at least come close) then the choice should be clear unless we're comfortable making the team worse in the middle of their competitive window.

Then they should just offer Burnes $500M, right? No one currently on the team is going to be better.

Or, maybe you have to weigh a lot of different things in roster construction. I saw someone post somewhere that the Athletic predicted 7/150M for Santander. If that's the case, and if you're going to spend that kind of money, the question is do you spend it on him or somewhere else.

The other Baltimore team has long believed in the 80/20 rule...if you can get 80% of the production at 20% of the cost, that's the way to go. That makes more sense in a capped world, but realistically we will likely have money restrictions so we have to make decisions.