FanGraphs: Sunday Notes: RoY Candidate Colton Cowser Contemplates Contact

I will never buy into the logic that a strikeout is the same as a groundout.

I will never buy into the logic that a strikeout is the same as a groundout.

The theory with the young crowd being that there's a chance for more double plays if making contact.  They'll yell to the hill tops defending it as batting averages continue to plummet every year. 

You don't strike out to avoid hitting into double plays. That's idiotic. You swing hard in order to hit the ball hard, which causes you to strike out. That's not some kind of newfangled strategy - it's what Babe Ruth did.

I guess it's just a coincidence that most of the top strikeout guys are also some of the most productive players in the game. Of the top 30 players in MLB, 21 have struck out at least 100 times.

Obviously, there are situations where you want a guy to put the ball in play more times than not (RISP, less than 2 outs, etc).

I guess it's just a coincidence that most of the top strikeout guys are also some of the most productive players in the game. Of the top 30 players in MLB, 21 have struck out at least 100 times.

Obviously, there are situations where you want a guy to put the ball in play more times than not (RISP, less than 2 outs, etc).

 

And the all-time leader in strikeouts hit 563 career homers and second place on the career strikeout leaderboard is Thome who had 612 homers 

Meanwhile, Luis Arrez has struck out 2 times since the ASB, spanning 216 plate appearances. He's scored 31 runs and has 19 RBI.

Cowser, in that time, has 72 strikeouts, but 37 runs scored and 28 RBI.

As i said, batting averages continue to tank. How many .300 hitters are there in the sport now? Is it even 10? Maybe fans are just desensitized to all the strikeouts. The hitters sure are. If that's your cup of tea, more power to you. I think its trash.

I'll definitely cede the aesthetic argument. It was better to watch when pitchers weren't as dominant and hitters could be more contact focused instead of damage focused.

But I don't think there is a sound argument that offenses would score more if hitters cut down on their swings to focus on putting it in play rather than hitting the ball hard. There are very few guys like Juan Soto who can hit the ball hard against modern pitchers without striking out a lot. I'm in for that approach in situations where it makes sense to do so, and I think guys do that to an extent, but it's basically like a variation on small ball. Gotta be judicious about when you're giving away outs, and hoping for a softer hit ball to find some grass isn't terribly different.

Swinging hard makes sense. IF you are capable of swinging hard and making consistent enough contact. That is not the same thing as swinging to put every pitch into orbit.

If only there were more guys built like Ted Williams or enhanced Barry Bonds who could hit for absurd power, lead the league in batting, and rarely strikeout.

Watching Tony Gwynn swing a bat was one of the greatest baseball joys of my lifetime. Followed closely by George Brett.

Remember that the zone used to be bigger as well. Today's hitters have the luxury of a zone slightly larger than a paper plate. Ump calls a pitch in the river now, the TV zone box says it's a ball and he gets marked down and commentators are all over him. It is much easier to hit for power now for so many reasons.

Watching Tony Gwynn swing a bat was one of the greatest baseball joys of my lifetime. Followed closely by George Brett.

Remember that the zone used to be bigger as well. Today's hitters have the luxury of a zone slightly larger than a paper plate. Ump calls a pitch in the river now, the TV zone box says it's a ball and he gets marked down and commentators are all over him. It is much easier to hit for power now for so many reasons.

 

You want fewer strikeouts but a bigger strike zone?  Could you imagine how many shutouts we'd have if all these pitchers who can pump 98 with indistinguishable offspeed stuff also got pitches at the letters or off the plate called strikes?  You'd need to move the bases to 80 feet.

I cant speak on pre 90s baseball but I remember and Ive watched enough old games on youtube to say that the K zone today is bigger than it was in the middle of the offensive boom of the mid 90s

Compared to the steroid era, today's strike zone is huge.  It's not even close.  The only pitchers who survived the 90's and early 2000's with decent stats were the ones who had elite control and could thread a needle.  A strike was more or less from the waist to the knees. Balls thrown across the letters was always a ball.  If anything, it might be time to shrink the zone a little bit and make it harder for pitchers to strike someone out.  If that were to happen, perhaps pitchers would have to adjust and not throw as hard to gain better control.  Instead of worrying about the speed of the game, maybe they should have spent more time on the quality of the product. 

The automated K zone is likely to shrink the zone. I cant say this as a fact but Im willing to bet umps miss more balls than they miss strikes

I will never buy into the logic that a strikeout is the same as a groundout.

Yeah all those two out strikeouts that kill potential rallies are definitely the same as putting the ball in play that could result in a groundout.

 

Insane that a .241 avg, .321 obp and 157 strikeouts has you in the running for RoY.

Yeah all those two out strikeouts that kill potential rallies are definitely the same as putting the ball in play that could result in a groundout.

Insane that a .241 avg, .321 obp and 157 strikeouts has you in the running for RoY.

To be fair its a down year in the AL. Skenes or Merrill would have it wrapped up in the AL. Maybe others in the NL too. It also helps that voters now take in more criteria. Cowser's elite D is a wouldnt have been factored in very much 20 years ago

The automated K zone is likely to shrink the zone. I cant say this as a fact but Im willing to bet umps miss more balls than they miss strikes

Depends if the automated k zone calls the rule book strike zone or not.

So were last night's 15 strikeouts the same as putting the ball in play?