BSL: Breaking Down The Most Interesting Picks From Baltimore’s 2024 Draft Class

https://baltimorespo...24-draft-class/

Honeycutt.

 

I absolutely love the pick.  I had some questions about whether the Orioles would select him (the more I find out, even the picture in this piece, the less surprised I am) but my continued position on him is they see what they can change so they aren't viewing this as risk/reward. Risk/reward is the macro scouting report narrative.  They are (in all likelihood) looking at it differently.  They are looking at it through the lens of whether they can get to the Talent or not,  If they take him (and they did), it's just reward.  "Risk" allowed him to get to #22.  If they didn't think they could get to [IT], they wouldn't have taken him and for the rest of the Teams, that might be a little scary.

 

I've said that a couple years from now this could be a WTF type selection and someone else [Nigel?] mentioned something similar like "...how did everyone pass on Mike Trout or Aaron Judge."  I don't want to go to that level yet, but you don't have to go that far to make this a wild homerun.

 

Question from the pick:  What might this pick mean for Baltimore’s willingness to part with some of its outfield prospects at the trade deadline? 

I don't think it has any impact.  Santander is likely gone as a FA (and QO draft pick) and I find is unlikely that Mullins and Hays are here next year.  You likely have Kjerstad in RF and Cowser in LF (like him better there than CF) so the only offseason plan on offense should be who is manning CF. 

 

I said somewhere else I don't really expect this draft to change the starters before 2030, but this pick changes that for me.  When we get to him is a question (agree they'll go through something of an adjustment in swing change) but he should absolutely be on the map.  Now the question should be what do you want to do in CF until he gets here.  I mentioned pulling together a package and trying to entice Dylan Crews.  Totally off that now.  I like Lane Thomas and you have the resources to pull together a deal into FA, but I'd make this easy.  Brenton Doyle (COL) is the guy I'd target.  Timing would just depend on whether you want to keep Mullins/Hays thru the end of this season.

One other note I liked in the article....I don't follow the College WS too closely, but it's interesting that - not too long ago - our first pick and the second and third picks were sitting in opposite dugouts rooting against each other and now they'll be in the same dugout here shortly. 

Westburg  O'Ferrall

 

Love this pick too.  I'll stay with the theme that's not so much in what these guys scouting reports say today, it's where the Orioles think they can get the player with the foundations of those reports.  I love the Westburg comp for him....but thinking about it, you get some Joey Ortiz in there too.  Ortiz was/is 5'9".  O'Ferrall is 6'1" so if he's some combination of those 2 guys, I'm not so concerned about where they'll get him.  Ortiz developed power and most reports have O'Ferrall making adjustments to get to more power that seemed to have less overall value...but if he wants to get there, the Orioles will give him a path.

 

Question from the pick:  Is there room for O’Ferrall to add enough power to elevate his ceiling as a prospect? 

 

Yes...but does it matter?  My question is more in line with your Honeycutt question.  O'Ferrall could easily project as a Westburg or Ortiz or maybe even Mateo (trading some bat for speed).  He'd be a GG quality 2B.  He'd have plus speed, you project him as a Gamer and his floor to do it isn't far off.

 

Does his selection make Holliday more tradable?  The conversation is the other threads is who makes a bigger impact to the roster [Skubal? or Holliday?].  That's not really the question.  The question is what has more impact to winning [Skubal and O'Ferrall] or [other LHSP and Holliday].  A guy like Mateo, who we're already winning with, is an easy bridge to get to O'Ferrall next.

Westburg O'Ferrall

Love this pick too. I'll stay with the theme that's not so much in what these guys scouting reports say today, it's where the Orioles think they can get the player with the foundations of those reports. I love the Westburg comp for him....but thinking about it, you get some Joey Ortiz in there too. Ortiz was/is 5'9". O'Ferrall is 6'1" so if he's some combination of those 2 guys, I'm not so concerned about where they'll get him. Ortiz developed power and most reports have O'Ferrall making adjustments to get to more power that seemed to have less overall value...but if he wants to get there, the Orioles will give him a path.


Yes...but does it matter? My question is more in line with your Honeycutt question. O'Ferrall could easily project as a Westburg or Ortiz or maybe even Mateo (trading some bat for speed). He'd be a GG quality 2B. He'd have plus speed, you project him as a Gamer and his floor to do it isn't far off.

Does his selection make Holiday more tradable? The conversation is the other threads is who makes a bigger impact to the roster [Skubal? or Holliday?]. That's not really the question. The question is what has more impact to winning [Skubal and O'Ferrall] or [other LHSP and Holliday]. A guy like Mateo, who we're already winning with, is an easy bridge to get to O'Ferrall next.

You are wrong in regards to one point. All the conversation of Skubal vs Holliday has been which would give e the Os the best chance at winning a WS.Nobody was discussing which one made the roster better.

Anderson

 

Again, a fan of the pick.  Love everything in the profile and if they can tweak up the results, more impact.

 

Question from the pick:  What do the Orioles see defensively that leads them to believe Anderson will be able to stick at catcher moving forward?

 

I look at what he can mean to the roster.  Let's not get too far ahead, we're on a 100 win pace with Mountcastle and O'Hearn playing significant roles, but Mayo could wind up as a GG 1B and RoY next year and Basallo as a DH/C RoY candidate in 2026.

 

I want to extend Adley and having a Rutschman-Mayo-Basallo combination at C-1B-DH with flexibility between the positions could be - and I'm not trying to be hyperbolic here - one of the best of All Time.  Now add a guy like Ethan Anderson and his profile join to that mix.  Give Basallo a day off against a tough LHer or mayo vs a tough RHer.  Give Adley an extra day in the dugout once in a while.  Who ever isn't in the game is going to get an AB that could mean something in the late innings and Anderson basically gives you usable depth and coverage against injury....and they're all here for 10 years. 

 

I'm not advocating for trades of Mayo or Basallo or not extending Adley because I think there's enough PAs across the 3 positions to work a 4th guy in significantly but Anderson does give you quality to project there IF you did something different with the other 3.

Allsup

 

There seems to be a performance theme that Orioles media has picked up on in terms of lesser performance and Blood's answer seems consistent with the other things we sort of know and that is they are looking at the underlying [things] and basing the selection off what they think they can do with those underlying [things].

 

I will make this comment, the goal isn't to draft your BPA, that's basically what Matt Blood says but if true, stop it.  It's not about getting the next guy on your list, it's about getting the most guys on your list....so if Allsup is the next guy on your list (cool), and (noted here by Luke) that the guy is taking a beating in the rankings, figure out where you can get him and take another guy that won't be on the board later. 

 

Now, if you sense he's got some suitors and you need to pop him where you do, great, but it's never about the next guy on your list, it's about getting the most guys on your list.

 

Question from the pick: Can Allsup find success as a rotation piece or will he be relegated to the bullpen as was the case at times during his collegiate career? 

I wonder if he's going straight to the bullpen with a fast moving 2-pitch mix. 

 

We've had this discussion in other parts of the board and people can tell me whatever it they think about the pitching in the system, but the fact is (and it is a fact) that the Orioles have graduated exactly zero pitchers from the draft to the Big Club.  This is year 6 and I don't think we have a projection even for next year, year 7.

 

Maybe they don't care, but at some point, having at least one guy that gets a ML hitter out, one time, from any draft would seem to be a thing   If they like Allsup's stuff, especially in the BP role, then there could be some extra value in grabbing him.  I actually expect to see him in the Orioles pen sooner than later.

Layton

 

One quick note here.  I don't want to think about this much, but until something else changes, Gunnar is a FA  after 4 more seasons.  I'd give him 15/400 right now, but he'll say 'no'.  That means we have to at least start considering/developing the next SS options while we're winning Championships the next 5 years.  I don't think we have that first consideration in the system yet (with all due respect to some of the IFA kids already signed), but DJ Layton will be the first (and hopefully not only) kid we start tracking in the back of our head. 

 

Also, check out Melewski on this kid too.  When he was 9 (half his life ago) he was in OPaCY doing "Kids Run the Bases".  His mom seems engaged on social media and said something to the effect "hard to believe he's going to get paid to run them".

Honeycutt.

 

I absolutely love the pick.  I had some questions about whether the Orioles would select him (the more I find out, even the picture in this piece, the less surprised I am) but my continued position on him is they see what they can change so they aren't viewing this as risk/reward. Risk/reward is the macro scouting report narrative.  They are (in all likelihood) looking at it differently.  They are looking at it through the lens of whether they can get to the Talent or not,  If they take him (and they did), it's just reward.  "Risk" allowed him to get to #22.  If they didn't think they could get to [IT], they wouldn't have taken him and for the rest of the Teams, that might be a little scary.

 

I've said that a couple years from now this could be a WTF type selection and someone else [Nigel?] mentioned something similar like "...how did everyone pass on Mike Trout or Aaron Judge."  I don't want to go to that level yet, but you don't have to go that far to make this a wild homerun.

 

I don't think it has any impact.  Santander is likely gone as a FA (and QO draft pick) and I find is unlikely that Mullins and Hays are here next year.  You likely have Kjerstad in RF and Cowser in LF (like him better there than CF) so the only offseason plan on offense should be who is manning CF. 

 

I said somewhere else I don't really expect this draft to change the starters before 2030, but this pick changes that for me.  When we get to him is a question (agree they'll go through something of an adjustment in swing change) but he should absolutely be on the map.  Now the question should be what do you want to do in CF until he gets here.  I mentioned pulling together a package and trying to entice Dylan Crews.  Totally off that now.  I like Lane Thomas and you have the resources to pull together a deal into FA, but I'd make this easy.  Brenton Doyle (COL) is the guy I'd target.  Timing would just depend on whether you want to keep Mullins/Hays thru the end of this season.

 

Agree 100% on your analysis of the Honeycutt pick. I think he's an awesome fit and is up there with some of the top picks in the draft in terms of potential. It will be super exciting to see how the Orioles can develop him over the next few years. 

 

As for the CF question, I'm pretty confident Enrique Bradfield Jr. is the guy moving forward. I'll admit I'm a homer (I watched him play at Vanderbilt and had some great interactions with him during my first two years there), but he is one of the most exciting players I've ever seen step onto a baseball field. The bat seems to be coming together at Aberdeen and the speed + defense are 80 grade. His timeline should also align perfectly with the expected departures of Mullins and Hays. I think it's Cedric's position until the end of next season and then Bradfield Jr. will take over by Opening Day 2026, but could absolutely see Honeycutt making a bid for it (or playing a GG left field in front of Mt. Waltimore) by early 2027. 

Westburg  O'Ferrall

 

Love this pick too.  I'll stay with the theme that's not so much in what these guys scouting reports say today, it's where the Orioles think they can get the player with the foundations of those reports.  I love the Westburg comp for him....but thinking about it, you get some Joey Ortiz in there too.  Ortiz was/is 5'9".  O'Ferrall is 6'1" so if he's some combination of those 2 guys, I'm not so concerned about where they'll get him.  Ortiz developed power and most reports have O'Ferrall making adjustments to get to more power that seemed to have less overall value...but if he wants to get there, the Orioles will give him a path.

 

 

Yes...but does it matter?  My question is more in line with your Honeycutt question.  O'Ferrall could easily project as a Westburg or Ortiz or maybe even Mateo (trading some bat for speed).  He'd be a GG quality 2B.  He'd have plus speed, you project him as a Gamer and his floor to do it isn't far off.

 

Does his selection make Holliday more tradable?  The conversation is the other threads is who makes a bigger impact to the roster [Skubal? or Holliday?].  That's not really the question.  The question is what has more impact to winning [Skubal and O'Ferrall] or [other LHSP and Holliday].  A guy like Mateo, who we're already winning with, is an easy bridge to get to O'Ferrall next.

 

It's a fair question to ask but I don't think O'Ferrall changes the calculation much, if at all, when it comes to moving Holliday. Considering the way this front office holds on to prospects and the way they have talked about Holliday over the past few years, I would be shocked to see him moved at the deadline. You just don't see prospects of his caliber get moved and when you do, it almost always comes back to bite the team that moves them. The fear of acquiring Skubal and having him regress/get injured while Holliday becomes a perennial all-star elsewhere will always outweigh the potential benefits. Even if O'Ferrall reaches his ceiling, he's never going to be a good enough player to make you feel comfortable with what you could be losing by trading away Holliday. 

 

That being said, I would say the pick makes a Norby trade (which I already saw as inevitable) even more likely. Playing time in the infield is at a premium and the team has not made it a priority to get Norby into the rotation. His value to the organization is as a depth piece who can help in a pinch if Westburg or Henderson get hurt, but every time another quality infielder is added to the mix, the value of that role becomes lesser and lesser. He is worth far more to just about every franchise in baseball than he is to the Orioles, and he honestly deserves better than to sit around crushing Triple-A pitchers for another year. I'd be very surprised if he's not on another major league roster come August 1st. 

 You just don't see prospects of his caliber get moved and when you do, it almost always comes back to bite the team that moves them. 

 

 

Moncada is the only comparable prospect traded in recent memory, no?  That worked out great for Boston.  Don't think that trade being ideal for Boston means we should look to move Holliday, just that there aren't a lot of similar deals to look back on for any sort of historical guide.

Moncada is the only comparable prospect traded in recent memory, no?  That worked out great for Boston.  Don't think that trade being ideal for Boston means we should look to move Holliday, just that there aren't a lot of similar deals to look back on for any sort of historical guide.

If you want to go back a little bit Miguel Cabrera was two top 10ish guys that didn't live up to that. I think top 10 guys just aren't traded so often.

Gleyber Torres was a Top 5 prospect when the Cubs traded him to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Torres has regressed in recent years, but at the time, it was a huge price to pay for a rental. 

Gleyber Torres was a Top 5 prospect when the Cubs traded him to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Torres has regressed in recent years, but at the time, it was a huge price to pay for a rental. 

 

Agree Torres (and more) was a huge price for a rental RP, but I don't think Torres was quite top-10 at the time.

 

https://www.milb.com...s/gcs-191629886

 

This article says he was #24 at the time of the trade, and supplanted current friend Jorge Mateo as the Yankees top prospect.

 

MLB.com's site has him listed at #28 in 2016 and then up to #3 for 2017.

Probably more interesting and meaningful than simply looking for guys who are traded, is going back and looking at #1s, top-10 or top-20 guys overall in the past.  Runs the full gamut of future MVP/Cy Young winners to solid contributors to fringe role-players/busts, and sadly more than one guy who died.

 

https://www.mlb.com/...ts/2011/top100/

 

MLB's site goes back to 2011.

Probably more interesting and meaningful than simply looking for guys who are traded, is going back and looking at #1s, top-10 or top-20 guys overall in the past.  Runs the full gamut of future MVP/Cy Young winners to solid contributors to fringe role-players/busts, and sadly more than one guy who died.

 

I agree with this.

 

Holliday is in the system and everyone should project him into a starting role at the start of 2025....but because that's true, doesn't make him some indispensable asset. I guess I'm always a little mystified at the bizarre projections people had on him before the season. People act like he's about to be a top 10 player in MLB.  Maybe he will, but nobody would bet on that.  Neither our offense or defense will revolve around his success.  I think Mayo and Basallo will both be more impactful offensive players. People act like he's about to do what Gunnar is doing, but he doesn't have the same power or defensive profile.

 

Holliday isn't going to be +.200 or +.300 in OPS over another option at 2B.  He's also a Boras guy so you only get what you get the next 6 years, not some notion of whatever his career performance will be.

 

Not giving up Holliday frivolously, still take whatever he can bring, but we could win 100 games in back-to-back seasons and he hasn't been any part of it. You only give him up for something that makes a real difference and not just a rental.

 

Profar was #1 in 2013.  Holliday could have the same challenges as Benirtendi (#1 in 2017). If he was Dansby Swanson, would you care? Wander Franco had a very similar profile at #1 and his OPS his first 3 seasons was .810, .745 and .819....good and you certainly take it and they got to bet on him long-term, but what has more impact to this roster....hoping for what Holliday turns out to be or Skubal thru 2026?

 

Not at all negative on Holliday. If we don't make a big trade, play 2B and we'll see what happens.

Holliday doesnt have the same upside as Gunnar. In that sense I never thought he was going to be some offensive stud that could OPS at .950. He is not going to be a 9 or 10 WAR player. Thats not some hot take. Its just common sense. Saying all of that he was hyped because his OPS and wRC+ for his age were comparable to very few others. Guys like Trout, Guerrero, and Soto. Because of his poor showing in MLB and having to be demoted there is this general sense that he has been overhyped or is having a down season. He is 20 and has an OPS of .948 at AAA. That is still very rare company he is keeping.

Holliday doesnt have the same upside as Gunnar. In that sense I never thought he was going to be some offensive stud that could OPS at .950. He is not going to be a 9 or 10 WAR player. Thats not some hot take. Its just common sense. Saying all of that he was hyped because his OPS and wRC+ for his age were comparable to very few others. Guys like Trout, Guerrero, and Soto. Because of his poor showing in MLB and having to be demoted there is this general sense that he has been overhyped or is having a down season. He is 20 and has an OPS of .948 at AAA. That is still very rare company he is keeping.

He's been close to .450/.500 OBP/SLG at every level, I think that's plausible in MLB too eventually, especially getting stronger for a few more years...I mean .450 is kinda ridiculous Soto levels but even if it's more like .400 he still has over .900 upside. We're just not used to seeing this kind of plate discipline plus a good hit tool. He's not going to have a chance to be a 10 WAR player if he's not a SS and he won't be if he stays here, but if you have like Soto bat value, maybe minus a bit, but capable of being good at 2B that's really valuable. Compare the minor league stats to Gunnar, power is definitely not as good but a ton better at getting on base.

I think Holliday has a chance to be a better overall hitter than Gunnar but without the home run numbers. He offers a better defensive profile than Mayo and better speed than either Mayo or Basallo. Those two are mashers but they’re more one dimensional unless Mayo can handle 3B and Basallo can catch. I know they can but it’s looking more and more like both will be mainly 1B/DH on the Orioles. I would be more inclined to include one of the mashers in a trade.

Holliday has very similar AAA numbers at 19 & 20 as Gunnar did at 21.  BA edge goes to Gunnar at 288 to 277.  OBP to Holliday 436 to 390.  SLG to Gunnar 504 to 477.  ISO to Gunnar 216 to 200.  It's very close.  I would be surprised to see an MLB level up from Holliday like Gunnar did with the power numbers where he is far surpassing even his better minor league years.  But I wouldn't be surprised to see Holliday as a 300/400/500 guy and that is basically my ideal offensive player.

 

Personally I wouldn't trade him for Skubal.