Couple of thoughts as the Trade Deadline approaches.  The Orioles haven't done much to manage their roster.  Everyone is stacked up, guys at AAA aren't getting opportunity.  Kind of obvious something needs to happen, but there's been no sense of that from the FO.  

 

Orioles still basically lead MLB in RS despite the abyss the offense has been recently.  I think it's hard to say the playing time challenges are causal to the recent struggles any more than the playing time management has been causal to leading in RS.  I'm confident saying everyone wants to play more and a lot of credit to the individuals and Hyde for making it work so far, while they try to work everyone into some PAs.

 

1) When do you move on? I don't know how the individual players feel about their more limited roles versus the Championship opportunity for the rest of this season, but Elias has to make decisions on everyone (well, time runs out on Santander) in the offseason and does it make any sense to start that now (ie deadline).  Specifically guys like Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle and Urias and you could even argue for Santander.

 

I get that action isn't really a thing here so all the betting money would be to let everything play out, but this is the time to shape before the offseason, if you wanted to. There are Teams that need help now.

 

2) You aren't spending money in the offseason. You see any number of comments that want to evaluate this new FO by how they spend money this offseason.  Here's a preview, they aren't.  The targets this offseason aren't good.  You aren't signing Soto, Burnes or Fried.  None of them want to be here for anything other than something stupid and stay away from stupid deals.  Here's the  MLBTR FA Power Rankings.  The next layer is guys like Flaherty, Pivetta and Severino.  Not that you can't get those guys, but why would anyone want to go heavy on those guys.

 

If you want to leverage money to do something, the time would make more sense sooner than later, you can't spend much money in FA this winter. 

 

3) CF 2025 is the only question....on the hitting side.  Yes we have starting pitching questions for 2025.  As discussed elsewhere, certainly depends on what you do with 1) above and 2) you aren't answering this question by throwing money at it in the offseason.  You could certainly keep Ced in CF for another year on ARB3 (~8.5M), but the Orioles already project a heavy LHed OF and the RHed options in the system seem more like complimentary guys.  Maybe Jud Fabian could be your starting CFer, maybe you could wind up in some platoon with Bradfield, but if we're changing the guard a little (and that appears where we're headed), then finding a quality RHed hitting CF seems like the only 2025 thing.

 

Again, all of the money would bet we don't shape much, if at all, at the deadline but if you look ahead to what you want in 2025, your opportunity to do that with other things is now, or you wait to the offseason.

Don't think we know about #2. I expect money to be spent. Maybe they won't.

I want money to be spent on Burnes. That's what I'd do if I were Rubenstein or Elias wit Rubenstein's reaources to use.

They're going to have to spend something, because they can't field a pitching staff next year without additions.

Yeah I mean if they overpay for tier 2 SPs I'm fine with that because right now if they stand pat the #2 SP on OD 2025 is Kremer and that doesn't quite seem ideal for making the playoffs

 

I'm also curious if anyone who isn't going to be a seller at the deadline but is still a small market team is willing to move any SP of note, the Brewers made the playoffs in 2023 so they had no reason to make Burnes available but once the offseason rolled around it was a different conversation 

They're going to have to spend something, because they can't field a pitching staff next year without additions.

 

I won't go back and fix the lead post but will correct it (contextually) here.

 

You can't spend A TON of money in the offseason.  I'll buy into Burnes, but he has to want to be here.  If he wants to stay here for 250M, I'm in.  If he wants to use the Orioles to drive up the price of the Mets because the only priority he has is breaking 325M for his agent, that's cool, enjoy somewhere else.  Fried too....we aren't going as far as the Dodgers (and we shouldn't).   

 

...but look at the FA list....we aren't dropping 100M+ on anyone on that list.  They'll probably sign a guy or 2, so they can spend something, but it's entirely likely the total payroll actually goes down next year.  

If we don't make serious upgrades to the SP either this trade deadline or this winter or dont sign Burnes then I don't think we make the playoffs next year.

I won't go back and fix the lead post but will correct it (contextually) here.

 

You can't spend A TON of money in the offseason.  I'll buy into Burnes, but he has to want to be here.  If he wants to stay here for 250M, I'm in.  If he wants to use the Orioles to drive up the price of the Mets because the only priority he has is breaking 325M for his agent, that's cool, enjoy somewhere else.  Fried too....we aren't going as far as the Dodgers (and we shouldn't).   

 

...but look at the FA list....we aren't dropping 100M+ on anyone on that list.  They'll probably sign a guy or 2, so they can spend something, but it's entirely likely the total payroll actually goes down next year.  

I don't disagree with your overall assessment. But it's worth noting that the O's aren't a team agents use to dive up prices for NY or the other big spenders.  

Yeah I mean if they overpay for tier 2 SPs I'm fine with that because right now if they stand pat the #2 SP on OD 2025 is Kremer and that doesn't quite seem ideal for making the playoffs

 

I'm also curious if anyone who isn't going to be a seller at the deadline but is still a small market team is willing to move any SP of note, the Brewers made the playoffs in 2023 so they had no reason to make Burnes available but once the offseason rolled around it was a different conversation 

 

Sure, I'm kind of talking about FA in terms of spending.  The same things you can take money on in the offseason are the same things you can take money on today.

 

I've talked about other things, but I've mentioned Robbie Ray also.  Owed a bunch of money the next couple years and was part of salary swapping with the Mariners.  If you just wanted to eat that thing, you can do it later, but if you're going to do it later, why not do it now while the risk/reward lowers the cost.  If he makes it back and pitches well, they could decide to keep him or it's more Talent to get him in the off season.

 

The bigger point is if the new Ownership wants to use money as a tool to improve the club, NOW is the high leverage opportunity to do it, not later because there's less places to leverage money later and you are competing now.  You aren't locking yourself out of near term opportunities (ie 2025) leveraging money now. (that's the point)

I don't disagree with your overall assessment. But it's worth noting that the O's aren't a team agents use to dive up prices for NY or the other big spenders.  

 

They will be for Burnes and Fried.  EVERYONE (the National punditry, agent outlets, etc) this offseason will be trying to make that case with the Orioles on the National scene.  It's a combination of NOW competitiveness, clear need, impact targets and new ownership that will want to make a splash.

 

Nobody is going to try and tie the Orioles to guys like Adames or Bregman (top 5 FAs) because there Orioles have a projected, quality infield (Mayo, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg) and actually have to move players (Mountcastle, Norby)

They will be for Burnes and Fried.  EVERYONE (the National punditry, agent outlets, etc) this offseason will be trying to make that case with the Orioles on the National scene.  It's a combination of NOW competitiveness, clear need, impact targets and new ownership that will want to make a splash.

 

Nobody is going to try and tie the Orioles to guys like Adames or Bregman (top 5 FAs) because there Orioles have a projected, quality infield (Mayo, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg) and actually have to move players (Mountcastle, Norby)

Like before, I totally agree with you. But the big spenders typically outclass the O's in the FA market. I just think those teams (the ones who have the interest) will already be prepared to go all in on Burnes. I don't see the O's as a factor in how much they'd be willing to commit to him. 

 

In a scenario where the O's are willing to match or exceed AAV, the bigger spenders will go to stupid lengths with the number of years they're willing to offer. That's where the O's will turn away. And they would be correct in doing so.  

Like before, I totally agree with you. But the big spenders typically outclass the O's in the FA market. I just think those teams (the ones who have the interest) will already be prepared to go all in on Burnes. I don't see the O's as a factor in how much they'd be willing to commit to him. 

 

In a scenario where the O's are willing to match or exceed AAV, the bigger spenders will go to stupid lengths with the number of years they're willing to offer. That's where the O's will turn away. And they would be correct in doing so.  

 

Right, but until the Orioles have answers, you're going to see Jon Heyman leak a source that "a competitive team" is at 350M for get the Mets to 375M.  Some teams may like that speculation as a means to generate interest, personally, I'd rather just stay out of it and let everyone look at my Team as the pacing team and be pretty much done.

 

Draft last.

 

I don't need to grind over every incrementally nuanced answer.  Put your Plan A together and see what happens.  The point of this [thread and Chris's] is that it's not too hard to look out and see what you can realistically do. 

Right, but until the Orioles have answers, you're going to see Jon Heyman leak a source that "a competitive team" is at 350M for get the Mets to 375M.  Some teams may like that speculation as a means to generate interest, personally, I'd rather just stay out of it and let everyone look at my Team as the pacing team and be pretty much done.

 

Draft last.

 

I don't need to grind over every incrementally nuanced answer.  Put your Plan A together and see what happens.  The point of this [thread and Chris's] is that it's not too hard to look out and see what you can realistically do. 

I want to circle back to your point about the O's not being in the market for most of the top end FAs. Since the team doesn't have a need for any of those position players, I wonder if they consider going hard for a premium FA pitcher. Of course, after reading the details in the link you provided, Burnes seems like the least risky choice.    

1) When do you move on? I don't know how the individual players feel about their more limited roles versus the Championship opportunity for the rest of this season, but Elias has to make decisions on everyone (well, time runs out on Santander) in the offseason and does it make any sense to start that now (ie deadline).  Specifically guys like Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle and Urias and you could even argue for Santander.

 

I get that action isn't really a thing here so all the betting money would be to let everything play out, but this is the time to shape before the offseason, if you wanted to. There are Teams that need help now.

 

I think you can certainly argue for both cases here.

 

1) I [insert player name] want to stay here in 2024 - regardless of role - and try and win a Championship with this Team OR

2) I [insert player name] understand you're going in a different direction, let's get me somewhere else where I can help a Team that may view as a bigger part of what they want to do.

 

Hays and Mullins seem like the most obvious here.  Stowers is in here too (he's rotting at AAA).  There are a bunch of Teams that need OF help right now.  Players like Hays and Mullins and Stowers are the exact type opportunities that are always out there to help create some lineup stability.  If you need OFers, they are an easy get.  There's always situations like this in MLB and the Orioles happen to be on the surplus side of it today.

 

The Pirates and Royals are 2 teams that really need the help in the OF.  Orioles aren't getting much back, it's really just alignment and you get ahead of ARB3 in the offseason.  If those guys really want to stay in the limited role, I can respect that but if they'd rather get onto whatever is next, I respect that too.

 

Mountcastle too.  I'm totally good extending RM in the same way I'd expect another team to do it (like a 6/70M deal) but right now, it's a choice for me between him and Mayo and I'd lean Mayo right now.  I want Westy at 3B and Kjerstad in RF so that leaves 1B.  RM is going to have some value and he's literally one of the better offensive and defensive 1B in the League.

 

Everyone wants to see Mayo, but it's all about timing and consequences.  If RM wants to be part of this run, same thing.  If next is a thing, same thing.  I want to keep Mayo in play for PPP so that's late-Aug and if you traded RM, you can have Mayo go to 1B full-time at AAA to acclimate until then.

 

It's crazy how much struggle there is at 1B across MLB so I think there's some teams that would be interested and I think every RHed 1B should lock in money as soon as possible (Mayo too....8/80)

 

None of these are independent moves.  If you pull one thread, you have to know what the second move to maintain the roster.

I want to circle back to your point about the O's not being in the market for most of the top end FAs. Since the team doesn't have a need for any of those position players, I wonder if they consider going hard for a premium FA pitcher. Of course, after reading the details in the link you provided, Burnes seems like the least risky choice.    

 

I think my position is a little different than you are describing.  The Orioles can be in on whoever they want to be in on.  New ownership will certainly give many some hope about the approach they'll take.  I think chasing players like Burnes and Fried in FA is a waste of time.  I don't yearn for players I don't think are coming here.  Do the things you can.  Work to get the players you can get.

 

For me, you have to want to be here.  If the only reason you're coming to Baltimore is because we paid you the most money, then I'll typically suggest that's not the player we need.  People keep trying to convince everyone recent success is about Talent accumulation, but I'd suggest it's more than that.  

 

Burnes wants to win the WS MVP.  I WANT him to win the WS MVP.  He'll say all the right things.  Like the guy a lot, but he'll have a different offseason priority.  If he want's to play for the Orioles, have your agent create an opportunity for the Orioles to sign off on.  That would be wildly out of character for his agent.  Tell him to get it done.  Change agents to get it done.  Burnes has the controls, not the Orioles.

 

Fried is the only other FA SP worth committing big money too.  For a couple years, the rumors have been about him heading to the West Coast.  The Braves have been wildly successful signing their younger players pre-FA.  They apparently tried to get it done or believed they couldn't get it done (I'd have to go back and look).  I actually started a thread 2 (?) years ago about adding him when the report came out.  Again, anyone that thinks there's a reason for him to come to Baltimore other than some absurd contract, let's hear it.

 

...but it's not about what you can't do, it's about what you can do.

...but it's not about what you can't do, it's about what you can do.

Verlander should be in play. 2 years ago, everyone wanted to pay him. There's been arguments to trade for him. He's from the region and 40 wins from 300 today. He'll likely need 3 more seasons (he's 41) to get there. Maybe he's not going to want to do it. Maybe he can't, but I'd certainly think (physicals, discussion, blah, blah, blah...) that you could do something like 1/20 with a 5M b/o (15+5) on similar team options and use this good Orioles team (defense, offense, etc) to lock in some Ws.

Get Tarik Skubal. Richard thinks it's stupid, but figure it out. If David Rubenstien wants to find a way to leverage money into opportunity, find a better opportunity than I've described elsewhere. Figure it out. Everyone wants some quality nad control....how is he not top target. He's a Boras guy, he's not extending, but you have control thru 2026 and let him walk (like Burnes). He wants to be great heading into FA, like Burnes today, I want him to be great.

GRod has plenty of control. Also a Boras guy. Great, no extensions, just use him until he's a FA and wish him the best of luck. You have several years to build the next option. If you create it sooner, do what you need to do. If you don't, roll out to FA.

I've talked about Shane McClanahan. I put the rationale in the Tobias Myers thread. He's a Baltimore kid....so buy lower, get him back to where he can be (like everyone wants Crochet and Skubal today) and then maybe he's a kid that's like, "heck yeah, I'll take your money." Figure it out.

Kremer at #5 for 2025 until we see how Bradish is? You have buffer and options there.

3) CF 2025 is the only question....on the hitting side.  Yes we have starting pitching questions for 2025.  As discussed elsewhere, certainly depends on what you do with 1) above and 2) you aren't answering this question by throwing money at it in the offseason.  You could certainly keep Ced in CF for another year on ARB3 (~8.5M), but the Orioles already project a heavy LHed OF and the RHed options in the system seem more like complimentary guys.  Maybe Jud Fabian could be your starting CFer, maybe you could wind up in some platoon with Bradfield, but if we're changing the guard a little (and that appears where we're headed), then finding a quality RHed hitting CF seems like the only 2025 thing.

 

Again, all of the money would bet we don't shape much, if at all, at the deadline but if you look ahead to what you want in 2025, your opportunity to do that with other things is now, or you wait to the offseason.

 

Was going to pull the thread on this, I'll do it here.

 

I've discussed the Nationals too much.  I think there's some "things are different now" value to putting something together.  It's not necessarily the reason you do it, but it's an opportunity to leverage if you can.  The Nationals need some help (they actually have some good pieces) and I actually want the Nats to be good because nothing is better for Orioles Baseball (outside of the Orioles being awesome) than the Nats being awesome too.

 

If they Nationals are going to be good in 2025, they need a 1B, a 2B a bridge to their younger 3B and a DH.  They have a ton of quality in a deep pool of OF prospects.  They just brought up James Wood.

 

Crazy, but there's not a lot of quality RHed CF prospects out there.  I'd try to see what it'd take to get Dylan Crews.  

 

How close does Mountcastle, Norby, Urias, Povich and 22M get me to Crews? 

 

Lane Thomas is another guy that could be available.  I don't love his defensive metrics (not sure about them, he has excellent speed, slightly better than Westburg at 29.3) and I wouldn't have to use that entire package for him....something simple like Mountcastle for Thomas (just turned 28, ARB3 next year) could work and consider what it'd take to lock down Thomas for 4-5 years.

 

...but the other guy I'd love to explore is Brenton Doyle of the Rockies.  Watched that guy play some and he reminds of a CF version of Jordan Westburg.  Lot of red on his DEF and BSR statcast.  Big guy, 6'4" 220.  He'll have just under 2 years service after 2024 (will be a Super 2 after 2025) so there's no pressure to move him unless you create a reason and I'd be comfortable doing that.

 

Doyle was a top 10 Rox prospect in 2021 (#6) and 2022 (#7) and slipped in 2023 (#16) and 4th rd pick in 2019.  Stowers feels like a LHed corner OF version of Doyle as a RH CF. Maybe do something with Mounty nad NOrby to DC and Rox gets that prospect value plus Stowers. 

 

I'd look at Crews > Doyle > Thomas in that order so you could certainly get to Thomas if the other can't work.  .  

I highly doubt they'd consider trading Crews.

Seems like Abrams, Wood, and Crews is who they'll be building the organization around.

I think my position is a little different than you are describing.  The Orioles can be in on whoever they want to be in on.  New ownership will certainly give many some hope about the approach they'll take.  I think chasing players like Burnes and Fried in FA is a waste of time.  I don't yearn for players I don't think are coming here.  Do the things you can.  Work to get the players you can get.

 

For me, you have to want to be here.  If the only reason you're coming to Baltimore is because we paid you the most money, then I'll typically suggest that's not the player we need.  People keep trying to convince everyone recent success is about Talent accumulation, but I'd suggest it's more than that.  

 

Burnes wants to win the WS MVP.  I WANT him to win the WS MVP.  He'll say all the right things.  Like the guy a lot, but he'll have a different offseason priority.  If he want's to play for the Orioles, have your agent create an opportunity for the Orioles to sign off on.  That would be wildly out of character for his agent.  Tell him to get it done.  Change agents to get it done.  Burnes has the controls, not the Orioles.

 

Fried is the only other FA SP worth committing big money too.  For a couple years, the rumors have been about him heading to the West Coast.  The Braves have been wildly successful signing their younger players pre-FA.  They apparently tried to get it done or believed they couldn't get it done (I'd have to go back and look).  I actually started a thread 2 (?) years ago about adding him when the report came out.  Again, anyone that thinks there's a reason for him to come to Baltimore other than some absurd contract, let's hear it.

 

...but it's not about what you can't do, it's about what you can do.

I was commenting on not having a need for the top position players on the list. But I share the same opinion that it's not ideal to have a player chose your team, just because you offered the most money. Josh Hamilton will always be the shining example of that. He was a beloved player in Dallas, but Anaheim offered more. 

I highly doubt they'd consider trading Crews.
Seems like Abrams, Wood, and Crews is who they'll be building the organization around.

We just have to incentivize them into trading Crews. You know, like offer $60M and Jackson Holliday.

I think you can certainly argue for both cases here.
 
 
Mountcastle too.  I'm totally good extending RM in the same way I'd expect another team to do it (like a 6/70M deal).

Ryan Mountastle currently makes $4+M and is not a FA until after the 2026 season. You’d expect other teams to give him a 6/70M extension? Which teams do you think are that stupid?