BSL: Investigating The Implications Of The Orioles Onslaught Of Pitching Injuries

https://baltimorespo...ching-injuries/

Well done Luke. I think your nod toward a bit of overpaying is the strategic move here. Standing pat is likely not going to work well. And really is it overpaying when you trade a player who you don't have playing time for anyway?

I can't muster up any excitement for back-of-rotation guys like Anderson or Gibson.  Certainly wouldn't pay a premium for Anderson's first-half ERA since I think its as unsustainable as Irvin's.  I get that we need someone, but I think it's really difficult to distinguish between the unappealing options.  

 

I think Fedde might be better than those unappealing back-of-rotation options, but I'm not sure either.  His ERA is at least supported by peripherals, but he's never been even average before so I don't know that controlling him for 2025 is really a benefit.  

 

At the very least we need to add one starter, even if its one of these uninspiring names.  I'd definitely pay what it takes to upgrade to a better caliber starter, I just don't know who is plausibly available that fits that description.  I think hoping on Luzardo's health might be the best choice but hard to bring yourself to deal away good talent and still not be confident you've fixed our postseason #3 starter need.  Hopefully a few more sellers emerge in the coming weeks and we can make an actual impact addition.  I'm willing to pay what such an addition will cost.

Well done Luke. I think your nod toward a bit of overpaying is the strategic move here. Standing pat is likely not going to work well. And really is it overpaying when you trade a player who you don't have playing time for anyway?

Yes. It’s still overpaying.

I got halfway through the article and didn’t see any significant overpays.

“Trace Bright and outfielder Jud Fabian, and while I think that might be an overpay for someone with Severino’s profile given Bright’s tremendous upside”.

I would do this deal. What is Trace Brights tremendous upside? 2 flawed, not top 100 prospects, at AA, for a rental. That makes sense but why are the Mets selling in the middle of a hot streak and a decent chance of making the WC.

My general philosophy on a trade is to acquire someone under team control. Spending bullets on a series of rentals only empties the cabinet, while leaving the team in need the following winter. 

 

But in a real world, practical application, if team-controlled targets aren't available, you gotta do what it takes to improve. Even if, as Luke wrote, you're just acquiring arms to reduce the workload on the guys who will be leading the charge in Oct. I agree that has merit as well.

Rentals shouldn't cost any of the bullets we really care about losing. Part of that is because there aren't projected to be any really good rentals available like Montgomery was last year who end up costing a really good prospect. Maybe if some new sellers emerge we'll see a couple extra intriguing arms available.

I can't muster up any excitement for back-of-rotation guys like Anderson or Gibson.  Certainly wouldn't pay a premium for Anderson's first-half ERA since I think its as unsustainable as Irvin's.  I get that we need someone, but I think it's really difficult to distinguish between the unappealing options.  

 

I think Fedde might be better than those unappealing back-of-rotation options, but I'm not sure either.  His ERA is at least supported by peripherals, but he's never been even average before so I don't know that controlling him for 2025 is really a benefit.  

 

At the very least we need to add one starter, even if its one of these uninspiring names.  I'd definitely pay what it takes to upgrade to a better caliber starter, I just don't know who is plausibly available that fits that description.  I think hoping on Luzardo's health might be the best choice but hard to bring yourself to deal away good talent and still not be confident you've fixed our postseason #3 starter need.  Hopefully a few more sellers emerge in the coming weeks and we can make an actual impact addition.  I'm willing to pay what such an addition will cost.

 

I thought about including Luzardo but I'd be really surprised to see the Marlins move on from him at his current value. They are likely better off holding onto him until the offseason unless they get an offer similar to what they could've had at the start of the season, and I can't imagine any teams (especially not the Orioles) will be willing to pay that with his recent injuries. I tend to agree that Fedde is the best option, but as long as we make add someone who can eat innings and keep the rest of the rotation healthy I won't be too upset. Honestly could see Povich developing into that No. 3 if we can stay in the rotation all year. 

Yes. It’s still overpaying.

I got halfway through the article and didn’t see any significant overpays.

“Trace Bright and outfielder Jud Fabian, and while I think that might be an overpay for someone with Severino’s profile given Bright’s tremendous upside”.

I would do this deal. What is Trace Brights tremendous upside? 2 flawed, not top 100 prospects, at AA, for a rental. That makes sense but why are the Mets selling in the middle of a hot streak and a decent chance of making the WC.

 

Bright has a career K/9 of nearly 12 which puts him close to Povich and McDermott at the top of the system. The fastball and curveball both grade out very well and his control (which has been the biggest knock against him) has improved significantly this year. I think he has the floor of a solid middle reliever and the upside of a No.3/4 starter. That's not someone I would want to package with another fringe top 10 prospect for a one-year rental of a back-end starter. 

 

Also, to your point about the Mets, I stated in the article that it is unclear whether they will sell or not. I tend to believe they will cool off sooner rather than later and realize they are better off selling much like last year, but it's certainly possible they try to make a run. If that's the case the Orioles would need to look elsewhere, but there's still well over a month until the deadline and July tends to be when the cream rises to the top. 

Bright has a career K/9 of nearly 12 which puts him close to Povich and McDermott at the top of the system. The fastball and curveball both grade out very well and his control (which has been the biggest knock against him) has improved significantly this year. I think he has the floor of a solid middle reliever and the upside of a No.3/4 starter. That's not someone I would want to package with another fringe top 10 prospect for a one-year rental of a back-end starter.

Also, to your point about the Mets, I stated in the article that it is unclear whether they will sell or not. I tend to believe they will cool off sooner rather than later and realize they are better off selling much like last year, but it's certainly possible they try to make a run. If that's the case the Orioles would need to look elsewhere, but there's still well over a month until the deadline and July tends to be when the cream rises to the top.

Bright’s strikeout rate this year is 10.2. The walks are better (3.6) but now he’s getting hit (63 H in 57 IP) which is always a bad sign. Along with that he’s 0-7 with a 4.07 ERA. He’s thrown 57 innings in 13 starts. My rudimentary math says that’s about 4.1 innings per start. I’d need a pair of binoculars and still squint to see a 3-4 starter in there. My thinking is the chances of getting bit on the ass by trading Bright and Fabian is small. Of course, you gotta give something to get something. Both have good chances of being ML players. Fabian has a very small chance to be a ML regular and Bright has a very small chance of being a 3-4 starter. Severiano, if healthy, is a #3 starter, albeit a rental. I am not a fan of trading prospects but I’m ok dealing suspects.

BTW, it’s tough to find starters, good or bad, that don’t have a least a 10.2 strikeout rate. It’s like they teach you how to strike guys out in bunches but not necessarily when you really need one. And I’m a big Elias, Sig, and Matt Blood fan.

P.S. Weston (11.3), Tavera (10.8), and Brnovich (10.5) all have higher strikeout rates than Bright. His strikeout rate at A+ is kind of meaningless right now. Povich and McDermott are/were striking guys out at much higher rates in AA and AAA.

I wish they'd give a shot to a few of their minor league pitching prospects-McDermott, Johnson, maybe Bright.They mite score w/one and avoid having to make one trade at least. Johnson might help in the bullpen, or so I read.

Povich's holding up so far, although I'm not sure about him.

I wish they'd give a shot to a few of their minor league pitching prospects-McDermott, Johnson, maybe Bright.They mite score w/one and avoid having to make one trade at least. Johnson might help in the bullpen, or so I read.

Povich's holding up so far, although I'm not sure about him.

I understand the thinking here. But my concern would be that we don't have time to try that approach at least not for a starting role. Don't think they could get enough starts between now and the end of July to see what you really have. In the meantime available players will start coming off the board. 

 

You give McDermott a handful of starts and by the time you determine he isn't ready its too late to do anything else. Looking at the schedule if he was called up to start tomorrow (I haven't looked at when he last pitched) he would get 5 starts in by about July 25th. I guess that could work but that would be cutting it to the wire.

If Johnson's brought up as a reliver, he'd get plenty of action even before then. Bullpen's a big need too. 

 

I'd love to get Crochet, but that innings load could be a killer. Luzardo-no way w/that arm, at least not for anything premier.. I hope they don't trade for some rental filler piece who'd be next to useless against top teams in playoff competition. And I don't think they will.

 

I don't see them catching NY; they'll go in as a wild card. Therefore they only need to be good enough to make the playoffs. This gives them time to work on their starting rotation, develop their pitching, and prepare for postseason.

 

BTW, McDermott pitched yesterday or day before. I'd give him a look, even if U are going for another SP in the meantime.

If Johnson's brought up as a reliver, he'd get plenty of action even before then. Bullpen's a big need too. 

 

I'd love to get Crochet, but that innings load could be a killer. Luzardo-no way w/that arm, at least not for anything premier.. I hope they don't trade for some rental filler piece who'd be next to useless against top teams in playoff competition. And I don't think they will.

 

I don't see them catching NY; they'll go in as a wild card. Therefore they only need to be good enough to make the playoffs. This gives them time to work on their starting rotation, develop their pitching, and prepare for postseason.

 

BTW, McDermott pitched yesterday or day before. I'd give him a look, even if U are going for another SP in the meantime.

Really? They're only 2 games behind NY. That's a doable task, even if today was Sept 1st. 

Really? They're only 2 games behind NY. That's a doable task, even if today was Sept 1st.

You'll never win the bonus for being the first to declare the season over if you think like this. The game logs are a good training ground, and you've gotta be pretty impressively soft if you wanna compete with the "it's over" crowd and get the prize.

I think my idea is correct whether it's "over" or this is only a minor bump in the road and the Orioles are destined to win the East by 10 games.

Really? They're only 2 games behind NY. That's a doable task, even if today was Sept 1st. 

 

Yeah and the Yankees are 10-10 in their last 20, same as the Orioles, both teams are just kinda limping right now 

Yeah and the Yankees are 10-10 in their last 20, same as the Orioles, both teams are just kinda limping right now 

It would have been tough to keep the pace both of them were on.  

Really? They're only 2 games behind NY. That's a doable task, even if today was Sept 1st. 

And now after the Yanks got destroyed last night, 1 game behind with 2 games in hand.