Orioles.com: Henderson on state of young, fun O's: 'It's looking really good for Birdland'

no it's not.  

no it's not.

Huh? Yes it is lol

There is no sequence of reasonable, non-darkest-timeline events that would make the next 4 years (minimum) look bad.

There is no sequence of reasonable, non-darkest-timeline events that would make the next 4 years (minimum) look bad.

Rotation does look a bit questionable next year with Burnes a FA - Bradish, Wells, and Means hurt - Grayson still finding his footing.

Rotation does look a bit questionable next year with Burnes a FA - Bradish, Wells, and Means hurt - Grayson still finding his footing.

Even with league average pitching this is a 95 win team. And they'll get replacements.

I'm hopeful Bradish is a candidate for the brace and will be back by spring training. The surgery has a faster recovery.

There is no sequence of reasonable, non-darkest-timeline events that would make the next 4 years (minimum) look bad.

 

Sure there is.  That's not negative, but this Team is more than just Talent.  It's entirely likely those dynamics could change next year.

 

Beyond that, things happen.  Everyone loves what the Braves have been doing.  Finding Talent, locking it up long-term.  They set the MLB Record last year for Team OPS at like .501.  That is absurd.   This year, no-one can find their stroke.  Acuna was played at a historical level last year (40-70) and he was scuffling this year.  Olson was a monster last year, scuffling this year some.  They had the best pitcher in the NL in Strider go down.

 

There's only 4 teams in the NL over .500 and they're still one of them, but there's a lot of shine off what everyone thought was this dominant 6-7 year window from last year.  They can certainly come back and dominate again.

 

The 2015(?) Nationals Team was the "Tiger versus the field" type bet and they missed the Playoffs. 

 

Winning is more than Talent and the dynamics that are the most important to winning may/can change every year 

 

The minute you think you can coast, you probably get passed by someone that isn't coasting.

Sure there is.  That's not negative, but this Team is more than just Talent.  It's entirely likely those dynamics could change next year.

 

Beyond that, things happen.  Everyone loves what the Braves have been doing.  Finding Talent, locking it up long-term.  They set the MLB Record last year for Team OPS at like .501.  That is absurd.   This year, no-one can find their stroke.  Acuna was played at a historical level last year (40-70) and he was scuffling this year.  Olson was a monster last year, scuffling this year some.  They had the best pitcher in the NL in Strider go down.

 

There's only 4 teams in the NL over .500 and they're still one of them, but there's a lot of shine off what everyone thought was this dominant 6-7 year window from last year.  They can certainly come back and dominate again.

 

The 2015(?) Nationals Team was the "Tiger versus the field" type bet and they missed the Playoffs. 

 

Winning is more than Talent and the dynamics that are the most important to winning may/can change every year 

 

The minute you think you can coast, you probably get passed by someone that isn't coasting.

As currently constructed, the Orioles are set up for excellence and winning 95-100 games a year.  The question is can they keep the core of that excellence in Baltimore?  Complimentary parts and chemistry are important, but you have to keep the core.  If you don't, then sure, at some point, you're going to head the other way.  Even with a perpetually strong farm system.  You also have to be willing to make trades and sign free agents.  There's a lot of moving parts involved in competing for a World Series every year.  So far, Elias has done a very good job with those dynamics. 

As currently constructed, the Orioles are set up for excellence and winning 95-100 games a year.   

 

Yeah, the issue with this is always people want to assume what you did is the baseline for next year.

 

You (anyone) can't explain (players) how the Orioles added 50 wins between 2021 and 2023, but you (everyone) wants to assume it's somehow now locked in as the baseline.

 

Good teams fail all of the time.

Ding dong, the witch is dead. 

Sure there is. That's not negative, but this Team is more than just Talent. It's entirely likely those dynamics could change next year.

Beyond that, things happen. Everyone loves what the Braves have been doing. Finding Talent, locking it up long-term. They set the MLB Record last year for Team OPS at like .501. That is absurd. This year, no-one can find their stroke. Acuna was played at a historical level last year (40-70) and he was scuffling this year. Olson was a monster last year, scuffling this year some. They had the best pitcher in the NL in Strider go down.

There's only 4 teams in the NL over .500 and they're still one of them, but there's a lot of shine off what everyone thought was this dominant 6-7 year window from last year. They can certainly come back and dominate again.

The 2015(?) Nationals Team was the "Tiger versus the field" type bet and they missed the Playoffs.

Winning is more than Talent and the dynamics that are the most important to winning may/can change every year

The minute you think you can coast, you probably get passed by someone that isn't coasting.

So, what you're saying is that even with the best hitter in the league and the best pitcher in the league getting injured for the season, the Braves are still a good team? And still have a very wide open window moving forward?

You really helped to illustrate my point rather than refute it. I'm certainly not saying that the Orioles should rest on their laurels and assume great seasons with no effort from here until 2028, but assuming they are run competently and don't have an epidemic of catastrophic injuries, they're going to remain a good team with an open window for the WS for the foreseeable future. It would take some unbelievably bad luck coupled with core members of the team being bad people/bad teammates with an absentee GM and a meddling cheapskate owner for them to not have a realistic shot from here until at least 2028.

Two things seem true when it comes to "championship windows." First, they open sooner than most expect they will. Second, they close sooner than most expect they will.

If you're talking about doing well in the playoffs, the Orioles' outlook is cloudy at best. You don't know. Yes, they'll win a lot of regular season games if that's what you're talking about. But you don't have the depth in quality starters if Bradish stays hurt. And you don't have the strong bullpen you need to go deep in postseason this year. And it's worse if Burnes walks next year and they don't replace him w/somebody of equal talent.

 

Now the big wild card is the minors. Povich was great in his last start. Can he be a big contributor? Seth Johnson? McDermott? A couple of these guys stepping up big could change the whole picture.

 

I think Elias will go big for the bullpen. Just a feeling. But there are a lot of questions about pitching. And that's about 80% of the game.

If you're talking about doing well in the playoffs, the Orioles' outlook is cloudy at best. You don't know. Yes, they'll win a lot of regular season games if that's what you're talking about. But you don't have the depth in quality starters if Bradish stays hurt. And you don't have the strong bullpen you need to go deep in postseason this year. And it's worse if Burnes walks next year and they don't replace him w/somebody of equal talent.

 

Now the big wild card is the minors. Povich was great in his last start. Can he be a big contributor? Seth Johnson? McDermott? A couple of these guys stepping up big could change the whole picture.

 

I think Elias will go big for the bullpen. Just a feeling. But there are a lot of questions about pitching. And that's about 80% of the game.

The Rangers bullpen sucked last year, ton of 4 and 5 ERA guys, and their rotation was pretty meh by time the playoffs came. Burnes and Grayson can be as good as Montgomery and Eovaldi were. Obviously I'd prefer another good starter if they can wing it but there's multiple ways to win.

If you're talking about doing well in the playoffs, the Orioles' outlook is cloudy at best. You don't know. Yes, they'll win a lot of regular season games if that's what you're talking about. But you don't have the depth in quality starters if Bradish stays hurt. And you don't have the strong bullpen you need to go deep in postseason this year. And it's worse if Burnes walks next year and they don't replace him w/somebody of equal talent.

Now the big wild card is the minors. Povich was great in his last start. Can he be a big contributor? Seth Johnson? McDermott? A couple of these guys stepping up big could change the whole picture.

I think Elias will go big for the bullpen. Just a feeling. But there are a lot of questions about pitching. And that's about 80% of the game.

This logic is just so flawed. What team is the playoff future not cloudy for? Who is a slam dunk to win it all? If pitching is 80% of the game, why didn't the Braves win like 10 championships when they had Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery?

I'm not saying starting pitching isn't extremely important, but Burnes and Grayson are a great one-two punch. In a short series, especially with as many days off as there are in the playoffs, two guys like that can get you most of the way there. You don't need an ace as a 4th or 5th starter, because at that point in the season you're probably only giving three guys the ball anyway.

The bullpen is a little more of a concern, but it's not a terrible unit as much as we complain about it, and with some midseason additions it can be very good.

None of this is to say that anything is guaranteed, and if they lose in the playoffs, which is a statistical likelihood, I'm sure you'll be here taking a victory lap and throwing out plenty of "I told you sos," but acting like this team is fatally flawed and incapable of winning the whole thing is simply not accurate. They have one of the three best rosters in major league baseball, and have as good a chance at winning the World Series as anybody.

This logic is just so flawed. What team is the playoff future not cloudy for? Who is a slam dunk to win it all? If pitching is 80% of the game, why didn't the Braves win like 10 championships when they had Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery?

I'm not saying starting pitching isn't extremely important, but Burnes and Grayson are a great one-two punch. In a short series, especially with as many days off as there are in the playoffs, two guys like that can get you most of the way there. You don't need an ace as a 4th or 5th starter, because at that point in the season you're probably only giving three guys the ball anyway.

The bullpen is a little more of a concern, but it's not a terrible unit as much as we complain about it, and with some midseason additions it can be very good.

None of this is to say that anything is guaranteed, and if they lose in the playoffs, which is a statistical likelihood, I'm sure you'll be here taking a victory lap and throwing out plenty of "I told you sos," but acting like this team is fatally flawed and incapable of winning the whole thing is simply not accurate. They have one of the three best rosters in major league baseball, and have as good a chance at winning the World Series as anybody.

Hilarious considering your Ravens takes. You are repeatedly told the same thing when it comes to the Ravens. You cant make this stuff up. 

Hilarious considering your Ravens takes. You are repeatedly told the same thing when it comes to the Ravens. You cant make this stuff up.

I have no faith in the Ravens. It's not that they've lost in the playoffs, but the way they've lost, and the way they've repeatedly lost their identity over and over again despite having more talent than their competition. Some guys just aren't built for bright lights, and Lamar has proven himself to be one of them. I'm going to feel that way until he proves me wrong. I hope he does, and will be there to eat crow if it happens.

I don't feel that way about the Orioles.

Lol at the lack of awareness. If in fact the statistical likelyhood happens( they dont win a WS over the next year or two) you'll be just as negative about the Orioles. 

Lol at the lack of awareness. If in fact the statistical likelyhood happens( they dont win a WS over the next year or two) you'll be just as negative about the Orioles.

Nah.

I think too many here are into cancel culture when it comes to the Orioles. Say anything that doesn't fly in the Lollypop Kingdom, and you're an illogical, mal-informed dope.

 

Anybody (except some people here) should be able to look at the stats from Bowie on down and acknowledge that the recent drafts haven't been productive in terms of position players.(Basallo wasn't drafted, BTW) Pitching looks good-yes. I've said that. But for most part it's in A ball and hasn't faced the rigors of hi-minors competition-and is therefore unproven. And this leaves the Orioles lacking when it comes to forming the trade packages they'll need to fill in some holes.

 

And yes, they have two strong starters which was great-even decisive-when the "postseason" consisted of the World Series. But it's different now, Rotation and bullpen depth is far more important in a world where you might have to beat 3 opponents just to GET to the WS. Povich might make up for Means;he shows a lot of promise. I still think we're down 1 top starter w/loss of Bradish, though. Maybe we can overcome it in-house. But you saw last night. The bullpen needs help in the crucial late-inning slots, particularly against top teams.You'll need to go elsewhere for that. Against the glaring lights of postseason play, the fact that the Orioles' bullpen is just pretty good becomes meaningless.