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2020 Playoff Picture


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#1 Mike in STL

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Posted 18 December 2020 - 07:41 AM

Played around with this model a little more.

https://projects.fiv...fl-predictions/

 

I'll try to make it simple, but I'm not counting ties. Just wins and losses.

 

Week 15: Raiders about out of the picture after losing last night.

 

If the Ravens win out:

 

The only way they are eliminated are if the Colts, Browns and Dolphins win out AND the Bills win one of their next two games while losing the Dolphins in week 17, AND the Titans win any two of their next three. 

 

If Colts, Browns, Dolphins win out and Bills lose out, Ravens are in regardless of the Titans.

 

If Colts, Browns, Dolphins win out and Bills win their next two games, losing to the Dolphins in week 17, Ravens are in if the Titans lose two of their last three.

 

If Colts, Browns, Titans, Bills win out, Ravens are in because it means Dolphins suffered a loss to the Bills.

 

If Dolphins, Titans win out, Bills go 2-1 with the Dolphins loss, Ravens are in if either the Colts OR Browns lose just one game of their combined six remaining. 

 

If the Ravens lose to the Giants:

 

It really comes down to the Dolphins. Believe it or not, a loss there means the Ravens still get in even if the Colts, Browns, Titans, Bills win out, and Dolphins win their next two, losing to the Bills in week 17 in this scenario. 

 

Colts, Browns, Titans can win out, Dolphins beat Bills, but lose one of their next two, Ravens are in. 

 

If Dolphins win out, Ravens need Colts OR Browns to lose two of their last three, OR Ravens need Titans to lose out. 

 

Not even going down the road with what happens if the Ravens lose to the Jags or Bengals. 

 

This model is better for mapping out seeding based on the results you input.

http://www.espn.com/...layoffs/machine

 

Hopefully some teams clear the way a little this week.


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#2 Mike in STL

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:13 PM

If the Browns lose tonight the Ravens control their destiny. 


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#3 Biggsy

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:18 PM

If the Browns lose tonight the Ravens control their destiny.



I'd put the chances of Cleveland blowing it tonight at about 3%.

#4 Mike in STL

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:25 PM

I'd put the chances of Cleveland blowing it tonight at about 3%.

Probably could have thought the same about the Rams. Anything can happen. I'd actually believe the Browns would blow a winnable game before the Rams. 

 

Browns also played their Super Bowl last week and lost in heartbreaking fashion. That can suck the wind of a team for a week.


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#5 Roll Tide

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:35 PM

Sucks that the Giants left points on the field 


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#6 Mike in STL

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:38 PM

Sucks that the Giants left points on the field 

Always comes back to bite you. Browns win by 3.


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#7 cprenegade

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:44 PM

Probably could have thought the same about the Rams. Anything can happen. I'd actually believe the Browns would blow a winnable game before the Rams. 

 

Browns also played their Super Bowl last week and lost in heartbreaking fashion. That can suck the wind of a team for a week.

 

I don't think it was their SB.  In past years that would have probably been true, but they have a legitimate shot at playoffs and I think their coach is pretty good so I'm sure he can keep them focused.  I think last week was a chance to prove they can compete with the team that demolished the division last year, and demolished them in the first game of the year.  Even in the loss, they proved that.  The gap between Cleveland and Baltimore is not as big as it was even a few months ago.  


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#8 Mike in STL

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 09:12 PM

I don't think it was their SB.  In past years that would have probably been true, but they have a legitimate shot at playoffs and I think their coach is pretty good so I'm sure he can keep them focused.  I think last week was a chance to prove they can compete with the team that demolished the division last year, and demolished them in the first game of the year.  Even in the loss, they proved that.  The gap between Cleveland and Baltimore is not as big as it was even a few months ago.  

Very true. I still look at the Browns as circling us on the schedule when we don't circle them. But from what I've read about Stefanski he seems like a great fit regarding DePodesta in the FO, analytics, etc... They should be a good matchup for the next few years. Like it was with the Bengals and us when they were a playoff contender. Real toss up games. 

 

If only the Steelers could take the Browns place as bottom feeders for about the next 20 years I'd be happier than a pig in you know what.


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#9 Mike in STL

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 09:15 PM

Giants are winning if they take the points. Who do they think they are, the Chiefs? 


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#10 cprenegade

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 09:42 PM

Very true. I still look at the Browns as circling us on the schedule when we don't circle them. But from what I've read about Stefanski he seems like a great fit regarding DePodesta in the FO, analytics, etc... They should be a good matchup for the next few years. Like it was with the Bengals and us when they were a playoff contender. Real toss up games. 

 

If only the Steelers could take the Browns place as bottom feeders for about the next 20 years I'd be happier than a pig in you know what.

 

I have a hard time seeing the Steelers in an extended period as bottom feeders, the same way as I would have that same hard time seeing the Ravens in an extended period as bottom feeders.  Organizations are just too good for that.  But once Roethlisberger retires the Steelers will have to draft a QB that can lead the team.  After Bradshaw they went through quite a few before coming up with Roethlisberger.  So there is that possibility of an extended period of mediocrity.   :rolleyes:



#11 85Knight

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 01:18 AM

Probably could have thought the same about the Rams. Anything can happen. I'd actually believe the Browns would blow a winnable game before the Rams.

Browns also played their Super Bowl last week and lost in heartbreaking fashion. That can suck the wind of a team for a week.


It was just the opposite. The Browns reporters were gloating about coming back after being down by 14 in the 4th. They looked at that game as a step in the right direction.

#12 ivanbalt

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:06 AM

Giants are winning if they take the points. Who do they think they are, the Chiefs? 


Looking at the highlights, Freddie Kitchens (was calling plays for the Giants last night) clearly wanted to remind everyone why he was fired.


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#13 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:13 AM

The Steelers have 2 chances to help us out or the Bills can do us a solid in week 17 vs Miami. The way I figure, the Bills owe us one after our 2017 meltdown against the Bengals.

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#14 DuffMan

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:19 AM

Pretty remarkable that there's a decent chance an 11 win team will miss out on the playoffs despite there being an extra team going to the playoffs!



#15 Mike in STL

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:29 AM

Pretty remarkable that there's a decent chance an 11 win team will miss out on the playoffs despite there being an extra team going to the playoffs!


Still an 89% chance the Ravens get in, and a 98% chance if they win out. I’m not wanting this to get to week 17. The sooner a team can do us a solid, the better, for my blood pressure.
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#16 DuffMan

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:44 AM


Still an 89% chance the Ravens get in, and a 98% chance if they win out. I’m not wanting this to get to week 17. The sooner a team can do us a solid, the better, for my blood pressure.


I feel like they could make a little noise now that they seem to have some confidence/momentum going. While out for my run this morning I even talked myself into their revenge tour in the playoffs taking out Pittsburgh, and Tennessee before getting one more crack at KC (not sure they can win that one but you never know).
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#17 Mike B

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:49 AM

Still an 89% chance the Ravens get in, and a 98% chance if they win out. I’m not wanting this to get to week 17. The sooner a team can do us a solid, the better, for my blood pressure.

I am actually pretty calm about it, which is unusual for me, but I think if they win out, and I think they will. They will get in.

 

11-5 is not a bad season, especially with everything that has gone wrong this season.  


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#18 The Epic

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 10:09 AM

The 89% chance is (I THINK) based on teams not sitting their players, which...I mean...


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#19 Biggsy

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 11:20 AM

Really wish that Buffalo - Miami game was this week instead of week 17. If Cincy pulls a miracle off tonight and upsets Pittsburgh, that Pitt - Cleveland game becomes even more important. Week 17 would be for the division. Which could be a big thing for us. We need Pittsburgh motivated for their final 3 games. Just beat Indy or Cleveland.

#20 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 12:33 PM

Hopefully the Raiders can top the Dolphins on Saturday night so that we can avoid the uncomfortable feeling of rooting for the black and gold.
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"Just remember, whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right." -Stewie Griffin





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