Photo

Sharp Football Analysis: NFL Referee Trends


  • Please log in to reply
31 replies to this topic

#1 PrimeTime

PrimeTime

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,711 posts
  • LocationHampstead, MD

Posted 23 January 2024 - 01:41 PM

The NFL assigned Shawn Smith for the AFC title game. Some interesting (and disturbing for Ravens fans) data on home/road splits.

https://www.sharpfoo...-trends-impact/
@primetime667083

"Just remember, whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right." -Stewie Griffin

#2 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 24,672 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 01:58 PM

You think refs dont make all the difference in this sport. Its disgraceful and I dont doubt for a second they send this crew to ref this game on purpose.

#3 jamesdean

jamesdean

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,399 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 02:16 PM

All you can do is hope they don't have a significant impact on the game.  I'm sure Harbaugh has told not only MacDonald but his defensive players to try and control their aggressions if and when they make contact with Mahomes because you best believe, the flags will be flying to protect him.  Easier said than done but he's the darling of the NFL now and those 15 yarders can be killers. Too bad Lamar doesn't get the same courtesy. 



#4 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 24,672 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 02:22 PM

Its so crazy because I think a lot of diehard fans football fans are getting tired of the Chiefs. They want anyone to beat them. Mix it the F up already. But these casuals prob buy into it enough that its a win to have some sort of Taylor at the SB storyline.

#5 Mike in STL

Mike in STL

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,346 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 03:12 PM

The script writers want Taylor at the SB. 

 

Ravens need to do what they can to make the officials a non-factor. 

 

Clete Blakeman got the NFC game, and he sucks. Has for a while. Like baseball umpires, if I don't know your name, you're doing something right (Angel Hernandez, Laz Diaz, Joe West...). I don't know who this Shawn Smith is, which is probably a good thing, even if he for some reason calls more home penalties than road ones.

 

I don't like the way they assign the crews. It should be a bracket of sorts for them too. Best 6 crews get the WC games. Best 4 of those advances to the divisional. Best 2 to the CC round. Meaning the crew doing the best job, seeing things the best way, gets the SB.


@BSLMikeRandall

#6 makoman

makoman

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,481 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 03:19 PM

My understanding is they use like all star officiating crews for the playoffs. Sure the referee is still in charge, but I wonder how much regular season trends carry over when all the other individual officials are not the same?



#7 Mike in STL

Mike in STL

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,346 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 03:37 PM

My understanding is they use like all star officiating crews for the playoffs. Sure the referee is still in charge, but I wonder how much regular season trends carry over when all the other individual officials are not the same?

I thought so too, but that articles suggested it might only be 2 people that weren't on his regular crew that will be.

 

I don't like this much micro analysis on such a big game. You wouldn't see this kind of stuff during week 6. 


@BSLMikeRandall

#8 PrimeTime

PrimeTime

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,711 posts
  • LocationHampstead, MD

Posted 23 January 2024 - 04:16 PM

I thought so too, but that articles suggested it might only be 2 people that weren't on his regular crew that will be.

I don't like this much micro analysis on such a big game. You wouldn't see this kind of stuff during week 6.


That's because there's only 2 games to cover this week.
  • Mike in STL and mdrunning like this
@primetime667083

"Just remember, whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right." -Stewie Griffin

#9 hallas

hallas

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,578 posts
  • LocationDaniel Larusso's hometown

Posted 23 January 2024 - 05:07 PM

It seems like he's pretty generous with false starts and RTP/unnecessary roughness penalties with the visiting team, calling them fairly evenly despite a typical home-team bias for both from most refs.

 

The false start issue is pretty big, because it clearly favored the Ravens against the Texans.  RTP/etc. I don't think will be a huge issue.



#10 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 24,672 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 05:15 PM

The holdings on the OL I feel like they let that go even more in thr playoffs. Has to be egregious. And when youre protecting a stone cold killer like Mahomes and can get away with holding more it just makes it that much worse for any D.

#11 mdrunning

mdrunning

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,417 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 05:47 PM

All of this hand-wringing over who's officiating is overrated and unnecessary. The NFL stands to benefit much more from establishing a bona fide Mahomes-Lamar rivalry than it would from seeing Taylor Swift in a luxury box watching a soon-to-be-retired Travis Kelce.

 

It would probably establish the storyline even more if Lamar were to come out on top Sunday, thereby knocking Mahomes off of his pedestal. They're in the business of football, not pop music. They don't need Taylor Swift to sell their product since guys like Mahomes have already achieved pop-star status. If Lamar and the Ravens win Sunday, then go on to win the Super Bowl, Lamar is in that rareified air as well. Lamar and Mahomes will be around a lot longer than Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. The NFL isn't putting their eggs in that basket.

 

Does anyone really think the NFL greased the skids for New England to make all those later Super Bowls just so people could gawk at Giselle?


  • 85Knight likes this

#12 Ravens2006

Ravens2006

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,051 posts

Posted 23 January 2024 - 10:57 PM

The suits in New York want Chiefs vs someone. The Ravens are going to have to beat the Chiefs and 3 or 4 key calls that will extend a Chiefs drive, or take a big Ravens play off the board... calls that could also be made identically in the other direction but won't. Death and taxes...
  • NewMarketSean and Biggsy like this

#13 mdrunning

mdrunning

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,417 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 01:00 AM

Sounds like some people are readying excuses should Kansas City pull off an upset. Please. 

 

From what I've read, Smith's crews typically don't have controversial calls and overall he has a good reputation. All of this crying foul over who's going to be officiating is ridiculous. Play the game you're capable of playing and don't let any one call impact the game overall. If the Ravens are in a position where one 50-50 decision can turn the entire contest, well, that's on them.


  • Mackus and cprenegade like this

#14 Steve55

Steve55

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,899 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 07:03 AM

It seems like he's pretty generous with false starts and RTP/unnecessary roughness penalties with the visiting team, calling them fairly evenly despite a typical home-team bias for both from most refs.

 

The false start issue is pretty big, because it clearly favored the Ravens against the Texans.  RTP/etc. I don't think will be a huge issue.

 

 

KC's tackles have been their weak point during the season. Not as much during the playoffs. We need to bring the noise.


  • PrimeTime likes this

#15 cprenegade

cprenegade

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,810 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 07:06 AM

Sounds like some people are readying excuses should Kansas City pull off an upset. Please. 

 

From what I've read, Smith's crews typically don't have controversial calls and overall he has a good reputation. All of this crying foul over who's going to be officiating is ridiculous. Play the game you're capable of playing and don't let any one call impact the game overall. If the Ravens are in a position where one 50-50 decision can turn the entire contest, well, that's on them.

 

That was my thought.  And it's occurring on KC boards as well.  This is the first time I remember fans complaining about bad calls that cost them a game before the game was played!



#16 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 61,152 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 08:00 AM

Sounds like some people are readying excuses should Kansas City pull off an upset. Please.

From what I've read, Smith's crews typically don't have controversial calls and overall he has a good reputation. All of this crying foul over who's going to be officiating is ridiculous. Play the game you're capable of playing and don't let any one call impact the game overall. If the Ravens are in a position where one 50-50 decision can turn the entire contest, well, that's on them.

Agreed. Just say you're nervous if you're nervous, nerves and concerns are fine. The tinfoil stuff is hard to take seriously. The officiating may play a role, it's a tough sport to call and lots of subjective calls that can go one way or the other. But its not preordained to go against the Ravens. That's ridiculous.
  • cprenegade likes this

#17 Biggsy

Biggsy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,300 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 08:06 AM

Sounds like some people are readying excuses should Kansas City pull off an upset. Please.

From what I've read, Smith's crews typically don't have controversial calls and overall he has a good reputation. All of this crying foul over who's going to be officiating is ridiculous. Play the game you're capable of playing and don't let any one call impact the game overall. If the Ravens are in a position where one 50-50 decision can turn the entire contest, well, that's on them.


I mean, that sounds good. I'm not usually one to blame refs. But trying to make it seem like one call shouldn't, or couldn't completely affect the outcome of a game between two evenly matched teams isn't exactly correct either. If an egregious call on a 4th down under 2 mins gives KC a first down, instead of giving the ball back to Baltimore for kneel downs, and KC ends up winning the game. Fans would have every right to be upset. And that call would have directly affected the game.

This isn't a team we should expect a double digit victory over. Expect it to be extremely tight. And the thought that refs can't completely change the outcome of a game like that, is just willful ignorance.

I personally agree that it's stupid to complain before the game. It's reaching for excuses, and it's setting up a narrative for people to follow if the Ravens lose. I don't disagree there. I like games like last week. Let the guys play. Call it if it's egregious, or directly effects a play. Otherwise, let the players decide the game.

#18 jamesdean

jamesdean

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,399 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 08:10 AM

I mean, that sounds good. I'm not usually one to blame refs. But trying to make it seem like one call shouldn't, or couldn't completely affect the outcome of a game between two evenly matched teams isn't exactly correct either. If an egregious call on a 4th down under 2 mins gives KC a first down, instead of giving the ball back to Baltimore for kneel downs, and KC ends up winning the game. Fans would have every right to be upset. And that call would have directly affected the game.

This isn't a team we should expect a double digit victory over. Expect it to be extremely tight. And the thought that refs can't completely change the outcome of a game like that, is just willful ignorance.

I personally agree that it's stupid to complain before the game. It's reaching for excuses, and it's setting up a narrative for people to follow if the Ravens lose. I don't disagree there. I like games like last week. Let the guys play. Call it if it's egregious, or directly effects a play. Otherwise, let the players decide the game.

That's the way it should be every week.  Too bad the officiating can't get out of the way of their own self-importance. 



#19 cprenegade

cprenegade

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,810 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 08:33 AM

It doesn't help that so many calls in the NFL are subjective.  And if they are borderline, then fan bases everywhere think the calls that go against them are bull crap calls.  There will be calls on Sunday that go against both teams that both fan bases will think the refs got wrong.  If the game is close late, the likelihood that one team will get a penalty that changes the game is very possible.  

 

I remember years ago, driving home from OC listening to the Ravens/Cincinnati broadcast on two stations.  One was the Baltimore feed, the other was Westwood One.  One of the two broadcasts was like 15 seconds behind the other.  It gave me a chance to really see how biased fan bases are to subjective calls.  It was the game that Steve Smith caught a TD pass to give the Ravens the lead late in the game, but was called for a push off.  All game long I was flipping back and forth between the Raven's call and Westwood One.  Just about every call that went against the Ravens, Jerry Sandusky and team (I think it was Stan White and Qadry Ismail) thought the calls were questionable.  Westwood One seemed split.  On the push off, Westwood One called it immediately even before the flag came out.  Said it was absolutely the right call.  The Ravens broadcast went insane saying it was a bad call.  

 

I'm sure this isn't unique to Baltimore.  The rules have become so complex and so subjectable that the fan bases across the country often think they never get the calls while the other team always gets them.  In reality it's about 50/50 and if the game is close, you just have to hope the call doesn't go against you.  



#20 mdrunning

mdrunning

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,417 posts

Posted 24 January 2024 - 11:07 AM

Agreed. Just say you're nervous if you're nervous, nerves and concerns are fine. The tinfoil stuff is hard to take seriously. The officiating may play a role, it's a tough sport to call and lots of subjective calls that can go one way or the other. But its not preordained to go against the Ravens. That's ridiculous.

What I've never liked is these championship game crews aren't fully intact, and Smith's crew includes a few officiating "all-stars" as well. I've never liked that. The postseason is about the best teams, not the best individuals and the officiating crews should reflect that, too. Just like NFL teams, referees get used to working with each other over the course of the season. Why change it now? Reward the best officiating teams as a whole.

 

Bum Phillips was lobbying for the same after that controversial "no catch" call against Mike Renfro in the 1979 Oilers-Steelers AFC championship. More than 40 years later, that plea is still falling on deaf ears.






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=