This thread IS NOT INTENDED to be a discussion of the quality of the roster or opportunity or 'how we got here' or "what I'd do" or any of that.  This is just intended as a 2023 Baseline Roster reference for where the 2023 roster sits and we can update it throughout the offseason as things change or are finalized (like Arbitration #s, trade, non-tenders, FA signings, whatever)

If there's some wild disagreement about a player or potential salary, I can change anything.

Presented as a notional lineup, obviously that would be subject to change, largely what they are ending the season using.

For purposes of this (new CBA), I'm putting all Team Control (TC): TC1, TC2 and TC3 at 700k.

Service: 0.0+ = TC1, 1.0+ = TC2, 2.0+ = TC3, 3.0+ ARB1, 4.0+ ARB2, 5.0+ = ARB3 (I use ARB0 for Super 2)

Contract: Xyears/yzM 

-----------------------

Lineup

CF Mullins (4.10M, ARB1)

C  Rutschman (0.70M, TC2)

3B Henderson (0.70M, TC1)

1B Mountcastle (0.70M, TC3)

DH Santander (7.40M, ARB2)

LF Hays (3.20M, ARB1)

RF Stowers (0.70M, TC1)

2B Frazier (1/8.0M)

SS Mateo (2.00M, ARB1)

Bench

C  McCann  (1.00M, 2/24M, current year 1.0M with Mets paying difference)

IF Urias (0.70M, TC3)

IF O'Hearn (1.40M, TC1)

OF McKenna (0.70M, TC2)

Starters

1. Kyle Gibson (1/10M)

2. Bradish (0.70M, TC1)

3. Irvin (0.70M, TC3)

4. Voth (1.85M, ARB1) - projected here as a tandem with DL Hall

5. Kremer (0.70M, TC2)

Bullpen

RH  Bautista (0.70, TC2)

RH  Tyler Wells (0.70M, TC3)

RH  Tate (1.5M, ARB1) 

RH  Baker (0.70M, TC1) 

RH  Givens (1/3.0M + mutual option for 2024)

RH  Politi (0.70M, TC1)

LH  Akin (0.70M, TC2)

LH  Perez (0.70M, TC2)

-------------26

IL/Means (2.97M, signed-ARB2) will start season on 60-day IL

TOTAL SALARY FOR 26-MAN = ~56.9M

Does not include

Previously deferred money = 11.3M (see post below)

Rest of 40-man roster = 8+M (common to all teams) - this is actually much less than this amount - partial salary based on service in minors.

Estimated player benefits = 15M (common to all teams)

Other bullpen arms: Pending 40-man adjustments

AAA

GRod

Hall

Orioles deferred payments:

Here's what I'll try (again) and if anyone has additional info, we'll update it here and I'll just reflect the total number up in the lead post. From what I've gathered (I'm not worried about date of payout, just raw accumulation in year paid)

Note: It appears all previous deferred money has been paid out, outside of Cobb and Davis.

2023: 11.3M from Davis (6.0M/breakout from 2022 + 3.5M), Cobb (1.8M)

2024: 10.3M from Davis (5.0M/breakout from 2022 + 3.5M), Cobb (1.8M)

2025-2032: 5.3M from Davis (3.5M) and Cobb (1.8M)
2033-2035: 3.15M from Davis (1.4M) and Cobb (1.75M)

2036-2037: 1.4M from Davis (1.4M)

I did not include Jordan Lyles 11M Team option or 1M buyout in the lead post. 

We'll add his consequence depending on the final action.

The Orioles do not have a Qualifying Offer decision this offseason. 

Arbitration Cases:

Santander 4.162  (5.60M, ARB2)

Voth 3.127 (1.5M, ARB1) 

Mullins 3.078  (3.10M, ARB1)

Hays 3.057  (2.90M, ARB1)

Tate 3.048  (1.5M, ARB1)

Mateo 3.00  (2.60M, ARB1)

We'll have to wait until the Super-2 cutoff is calculated, but Mountcastle is at 2.105 which would be the lowest Super-2 cutoff, but is at least a consideration at this point.

Edit: ...also Cam Gallegher would be arbitration eligible, I'm going to boldly go out on the limb and assume they aren't going to ARB2 with him.  Modest edit.  I don't think Gallegher got any 2022 service so he will have burned his last option for 2023 and will be ARB1 not ARB2.  I'll agree with MLBTR at about 1M, ARB1.  If the Orioles offer him arbitration, that will tell us something.  Kid is from Lancaster, PA.  

Re: deferrals, according to spotrac they are still paying O'Day $1M (for the last time) and Bonilla $500k (through 2028) in 2023. Their Cobb #s don't match yours so I don't know what's right. I have seen $1.8 too though so I think you are right.

https://www.spotrac....s/payroll/2023/

O'Day:

https://www.baltimor...1210-story.html

https://twitter.com/...280484288704521

Bonilla:

https://twitter.com/...842173934260224

https://ftw.usatoday...ts-paid-orioles

Re: deferrals, according to spotrac they are still paying O'Day $1M (for the last time) and Bonilla $500k (through 2028) in 2023.

So I think what I did previously was associate the 2019 salary with the Braves.  We don't know if there was any other cash contributions, but the 2019 salary was the Braves (as part of the 2018 trade) so the deferred money from 2019 should have been the Braves responsibility pending any other info.  In a signing bonus situation, the payments associated with a deferred signing bonus should be the original team.  For this situation, unless the Orioles agreed to cover the deferred 2019 portion, it should be on the Braves.  Certainly details we may not know.

The Cobb thing is interesting.  COTs indicates that the Orioles paid 10M of the 15M 2021 salary in the trade.  That could be the original 4.5M deferred + the 5.5M deferred from the <130IP in 2020.  That would actually make sense (in terms of aligning the $$).  I'll adjust it.  Crazy we talk about deferred $$ into the 2030s.  Note that 3 x 1.75 is 5.25M...not 5.5M....always something.

The Bonilla stuff is crazy.  Kudos to that guys' financial advisor.  It was a 5/12.5M deal....and he got >10M in deferred payments? I'm gonna leave this one off....but acknowledged and yikes. 

Added Bemboom to the 40, so I'll erase the TBD for backup catcher and he can be there for now.

MLB Trade Rumors projected Arb salaries. I feel like they've been pretty accurate in the past, but really that could be completely wrong and I can't say for sure either way. All these are higher than the OP except Tate is the same and Mateo less. But really the differences shouldn't be that meaningful if they are really planning to spend more. Didn't remember picking up Cam Gallagher TBH, but no reason they need more than one of him and Bemboom. 

https://www.mlbtrade...aries-2023.html

Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM

This thread IS NOT INTENDED to be a discussion of the quality of the roster or opportunity or 'how we got here' or "what I'd do" or any of that.  This is just intended as a 2023 Baseline Roster reference for where the 2023 roster sits and we can update it throughout the offseason as things change or are finalized (like Arbitration #s, trade, non-tenders, FA signings, whatever)

 

If there's some wild disagreement about a player or potential salary, I can change anything.

 

Presented as a notional lineup, obviously that would be subject to change, largely what they are ending the season using.

 

For purposes of this (new CBA), I'm putting all Team Control (TC): TC1, TC2 and TC3 at 700k.

 

Service: 0.0+ = TC1, 1.0+ = TC2, 2.0+ = TC3, 3.0+ ARB1, 4.0+ ARB2, 5.0+ = ARB3 (I use ARB0 for Super 2)

Contract: Xyears/yzM 

-----------------------

 

Lineup

CF Mullins (3.10M, ARB1)

C  Rutschman (0.70M, TC1, will be TC2 if he finishes top2 in RoY)

3B Henderson (0.70M, TC1)

1B Mountcastle (0.70M, TC3)

DH Santander (5.60M, ARB2)

LF Hays (2.90M, ARB1)

RF Stowers (0.70M, TC1)

2B Westburg (0.70M, TC1)

SS Mateo (2.60M, ARB1)

 

Bench

C  Bemboom  (0.70M, TC2)

IF Urias (0.70M, TC3)

IF Vavra (0.70M, TC1)

OF McKenna (0.70M, TC2)

 

Starters

1. Means (2.97M, signed-ARB2) will start season on 60-day IL

2. Bradish (0.70M, TC1)

3. G Rodriguez (0.70M, TC1)

4. Voth (1.50M, ARB1) - projected here as a tandem with DL Hall

5. Kremer (0.70M, TC2)

 

Bullpen

RH  Bautista (0.70, TC2)

RH  Tyler Wells (0.70M, TC3)

RH  Tate (1.5M, ARB1) 

RH  Baker (0.70M, TC1) 

RH  Krehbiel (0.70M, TC1)

LH  DL Hall (0.70M, TC1)

LH  Akin (0.70M, TC2)

LH  Perez (0.70M, TC2)

-------------26

 

TOTAL SALARY FOR 26-MAN = ~33.4M

 

Does not include

Previously deferred money = 11.3M (see post below)

Rest of 40-man roster = 8+M (common to all teams) - this is actually much less than this amount - partial salary based on service in minors.

Estimated player benefits = 15M (common to all teams)

 

Other bullpen arms: Pending 40-man adjustments

 

AAA

Update later

Nice work, Dude.

In regards to Lyles, I think they may pick up the option and maybe he becomes a trade piece, helping us balance out some payroll, if we trade for a veteran arm or bat making bigger money.

In regards to Lyles, I think they may pick up the option and maybe he becomes a trade piece, helping us balance out some payroll, if we trade for a veteran arm or bat making bigger money.

You quoted the entire lead post, but that gets updated as things change.

This thread is only intended to highlight the outcomes.  Discussion re: Lyles certainly has merit I'd only add (perpetuating discussion I'm not trying to perpetuate, here) that if they wanted to pick up the option, they just would.  There's no games there.  Elias wondered out-loud about it in the other article.  There will be no new information before the decision point so you already know and there's zero reasons to play coy.

Arbitration Cases:

 

Santander 4.162  (5.60M, ARB2)

Voth 3.127 (1.5M, ARB1) 

Mullins 3.078  (3.10M, ARB1)

Hays 3.057  (2.90M, ARB1)

Tate 3.048  (1.5M, ARB1)

Mateo 3.00  (2.60M, ARB1)

 

We'll have to wait until the Super-2 cutoff is calculated, but Mountcastle is at 2.105 which would be the lowest Super-2 cutoff, but is at least a consideration at this point.

 

Edit: ...also Cam Gallegher would be arbitration eligible, I'm going to boldly go out on the limb and assume they aren't going to ARB2 with him.  Modest edit.  I don't think Gallegher got any 2022 service so he will have burned his last option for 2023 and will be ARB1 not ARB2.  I'll agree with MLBTR at about 1M, ARB1.  If the Orioles offer him arbitration, that will tell us something.  Kid is from Lancaster, PA.  

This seemed as good a thread as any to locate this as it clarifies Mountcastle, FWIW it was set at 2.128, so no Orioles affected. The only others between 2 and 3 were I believe Akin and Urias, who were well under 2.100 days and had no chance.

https://www.mlbtrade...of-service.html

https://www.mlbtrade...rbitration.html

Always good when you can avoid arbitration with a guy nobody even knew was on the roster.

WTH O's. Dude is30 years old and hardly a piece we should be messing with given the current roster and down on the farm. This looks like back to the DD days.

Split contract and some insurance. No big deal. Cave is the new Phillips except a better bat and will be in the system all year.

Yeah a split contract is essentially a minor league deal and is not a big deal IMO.

Top 30 OF prospects at Norfolk to start the year will be Cowser, and probably Haskin. Rhodes could get there soon. So he's not taking time from anyone except maybe like Diaz or Neustrom or DJ Stewart. You can bring Cave up if someone is hurt.

I did not include Jordan Lyles 11M Team option or 1M buyout in the lead post. 

We'll add his consequence depending on the final action.

Orioles do not pick up 2023 option on Lyles (other thread to discuss).  Not sure where to put the 1M buy out....it's probably more of a 2022 expense.

Just know they've spent that 1M in there somewhere. 

Signed Kyle Gibson to a 1-year deal.  Updated lead post with 1/10.

I've checked my calendar several times and it's not April 1st.

Orioles sign Adam Frazier for 1/8. 

I've added him at 2B in the lead post for now.